Flash Flood Watch 9, NWS Jackson, KY

251 
WGUS63 KJKL 282014
FFAJKL

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson KY
414 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...Flash Flooding Possible Today...

.A cold front will move through eastern Kentucky today. This
front will interact with a very moist air mass, allowing for the
development of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms.

KYZ086>088-104-106>120-290000-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-170729T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-
Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, 
Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, 
Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, 
Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, 
Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, 
Pikeville, and South Williamson
414 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of east central Kentucky, northeast Kentucky, and
  southeast Kentucky. It includes the counties of Elliott, 
  Johnson, Martin, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Knott, 
  Knox, Lee, Leslie, Letcher, Magoffin, Morgan, Owsley, Perry, 
  Pike, and Wolfe. 

* It is in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will affect the
  region through early evening, bringing localized heavy 
  rainfall.

* Flash flooding of creeks and streams will be possible, 
  especially in areas that have seen significant rainfall in the 
  past 24 hours. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

115 
WGUS63 KJKL 282315
FFAJKL

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson KY
715 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

KYZ086>088-104-106>120-290015-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-170729T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-
Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, 
Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, 
Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, 
Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, 
Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, 
Pikeville, and South Williamson
715 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of east central Kentucky,
northeast Kentucky, and southeast Kentucky has been cancelled.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

The latest surface map features a cold front draped east to west
near the Ohio River. PWATs are currently running around 2 inches
across eastern Kentucky, with some shower and thunderstorm
activity ongoing across portions of the area. Aloft, a short wave
trough was rotating south out of the western Great Lakes region.

The models are in good agreement with this short wave trough
turning more southeastward as it encounters flow around an upper
level ridge axis centered near the southern Plains. This will
allow the cold front to pass south across our area through the
day and into this evening. Expect another day of unsettled
weather, with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding
the main concern. Confidence in where the axis of heaviest
rainfall will set up remains on the lower side. So, will only
highlight the threat in the HWO. Another more limiting factor
today will be instability, given the amount of cloud cover in
place. Highs will be around 80.

POPs will diminish from northwest to southeast this evening and
into Saturday, as the trough axis and deeper moisture exit to our
east. Lows tonight will range from the lower 60s north of I-64, to
the mid 60s near the Tennessee/Kentucky border. Some showers will
continue to threaten far southeastern Kentucky through the
morning hours, before high pressure builds in across the area.
Highs on Saturday will be mainly in the upper 70s, with dew points
down into the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

The period begins with an upper level trough continuing to dig SE
across the east coast through a good portion of the week. This
will combine with a surface high that crests to the NW across the
Upper Mississippi River Valley to lead to a extended period of
below to near normal temperatures for this time of year. The best
reflection of below normal heights for this time of year reside in
the 700 to 850 mb levels at 3 plus standard deviations below
normal giving way to the aforementioned cooler temperatures, and
lesser but still noticeable at the 500 mb level at around 2
standard deviations below normal. Also given the clockwise flow
(north to northeast winds) around the surface high the region will
experience a welcome decrease in moisture and therefore a break in
the sticky airmass normally seen this time of year. This will all
combine to lead to a 4 to 5 day period of dry weather.

The pattern will begin to swing back toward summer to round out
the period. This as the previously mentioned surface high
progresses southeast and becomes less defined. Also a upper level
trough will sink SE toward the Ohio Valley leading to better
chances of POPs. Thinking the slight chance of thunderstorms
picked up by the blended guidance is sufficient at this point.
High temperatures to round out the period will be near normal for
this time of year, but the moisture/muggy conditions will creep
back into the region hints with PWATs climbing back above 1 inch
by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT FRI JUL 28 2017

LIFR or worse stratus will hang in along some ridgetops, including
JKL through 09z. Scattered showers will threaten through the
night. An approaching cold front will bring numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms to the area during the day on Friday.
Ceilings/visibilities will drop down to MVFR at times. Convection
will diminish from north to south into Friday evening, with MVFR
ceilings remaining in place. Light southwest winds will veer to
the north northwest at around 5 kts behind the frontal passage.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
427 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-291100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
427 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected today.
Isolated flash flooding will be possible, especially at locations
that have seen significant rainfall over the past 24 hours.
Additionally, a few thunderstorms may contain strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of flooding.

GEOGERIAN