Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Jackson, KY

068 
WGUS63 KJKL 221535
FFAJKL

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1135 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...Excessive Rainfall Could Lead to Flash Flooding Across
Portions of Southeast Kentucky This Afternoon into Sunday...

.A stalled frontal boundary over the southern portion of eastern
Kentucky will interact with a slowly passing area of low pressure
to bring a periods of moderate to heavy showers to the watch area
through Sunday. A few thunderstorms will be possible today and 
this evening leading to enhanced rainfall totals and the
potential for excess runoff nearer to the VA and TN borders.

KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120-222345-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0002.170422T1600Z-170423T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-
Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, 
Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, 
Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, 
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, 
and South Williamson
1135 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Kentucky and southeast Kentucky, 
  including the following areas, in south central Kentucky, 
  Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, and Whitley. In southeast 
  Kentucky, Bell, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Knott, Knox, Leslie, 
  Letcher, Perry, and Pike. 

* Through Sunday afternoon

* Event total rainfall amounts generally between 1.5 to 2.5 inches
  are expected with locally higher amounts possible where 
  thunderstorms occur. 

* Heavy rainfall from showers, and initial thunderstorms, this 
  afternoon through Sunday over the watch area could lead to 
  flooding of low lying areas. Fast rises on area creeks and 
  streams are likely, as well. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

GRIEF/JP

959 
WGUS63 KJKL 222056
FFAJKL

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson KY
456 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...Excessive Rainfall Could Lead to Flash Flooding Across
Portions of Southeast Kentucky through Sunday Afternoon...

.A stalled frontal boundary over the southern portion of eastern
Kentucky will interact with a slowly passing area of low pressure
to bring a period of moderate to heavy showers to the watch area 
through Sunday. A few thunderstorms will be possible leading to 
enhanced rainfall totals and the potential for excess runoff 
nearer to the VA and TN borders.

KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120-230900-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170423T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-
Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, 
Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, 
Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, 
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, 
and South Williamson
456 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Kentucky and southeast Kentucky, 
  including the following areas, in south central Kentucky, 
  Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, and Whitley. In southeast 
  Kentucky, Bell, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Knott, Knox, Leslie, 
  Letcher, Perry, and Pike. 

* Through Sunday afternoon.

* Event total rainfall amounts generally between 1.5 to 2.5 
  inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible where 
  thunderstorms occur. 

* Heavy rainfall from showers, and some thunderstorms through
  Sunday over the watch area could lead to flooding of low lying
  areas. Additionally, fast rises on area creeks and streams are
  likely. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

GREIF/JP/SHALLENBERGER

234 
WGUS63 KJKL 230051
FFAJKL

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson KY
851 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...Excessive Rainfall Could Lead to Flash Flooding Across
Portions of Southeast Kentucky through Sunday Afternoon...

.A stalled frontal boundary over the southern portion of eastern
Kentucky will interact with a slowly passing area of low pressure
to bring a period of moderate to heavy showers through Sunday. The
best chances for heavier rainfall and excess runoff will be near
the Virginia and Tennessee state lines.

KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120-231100-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170423T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-
Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, 
Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, 
Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, 
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, 
and South Williamson
851 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Kentucky and southeast Kentucky, 
  including the following areas, in south central Kentucky, 
  Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, and Whitley. In southeast 
  Kentucky, Bell, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Knott, Knox, Leslie, 
  Letcher, Perry, and Pike. 

* Through Sunday afternoon.

* Event total rainfall amounts generally between 1.5 to 2.5 inches
  are expected with locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding of low lying areas.
  Additionally, fast rises on area rivers, creeks, and streams are
  likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

883 
WGUS63 KJKL 230755 AAA
FFAJKL

Flood Watch...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
355 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Excessive Rainfall Could Lead to Flash Flooding Across
Portions of Southeast Kentucky through Late this Afternoon...

.A west to east oriented frontal boundary located just south of 
Kentucky will interact with a slowly passing area of deep low 
pressure to bring a period of moderate to heavy showers to the
region through this afternoon. The best chances for heavier 
rainfall and excess runoff problems will be near the Virginia and 
Tennessee state lines.

KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120-231615-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170423T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-
Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, 
Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, 
Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, 
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, 
and South Williamson
355 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Kentucky and southeast Kentucky, 
  including the following areas, in south central Kentucky, 
  Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, and Whitley. In southeast 
  Kentucky, Bell, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Knott, Knox, Leslie, 
  Letcher, Perry, and Pike. 

* Through this afternoon

* Another 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain can be expected in the watch
  area today. This will bring event total rainfall amounts to
  generally between 1.5 and 3 inches with locally higher amounts
  possible - particularly near the Virginia border.

* Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding of low lying areas. 
  Additionally, fast rises on area rivers, creeks, and streams 
  are likely. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

GREIF

344 
WGUS63 KJKL 231615
FFAJKL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1215 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Excessive Rainfall Could Lead to Flash Flooding Across
Portions of Southeast Kentucky Today...

.A west to east oriented frontal boundary located just south of
Kentucky will interact with a slowly passing area of deep low
pressure to bring a period of moderate to heavy showers to the
region through this afternoon, and lingering over far southeast
Kentucky through this evening. The best chance for heavier 
rainfall and excess runoff problems will continue to be near the 
Virginia and Tennessee state lines.

KYZ087-088-118-120-232015-
/O.EXT.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170424T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, 
Harlan, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, 
and South Williamson
1215 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following areas,
  Bell, Harlan, Letcher, and Pike Counties 

* Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain will be possible in the watch area
  during the afternoon and evening. This will bring event total
  rainfall amounts to generally between 1.5 and 3 inches, with
  locally higher amounts possible.

* Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding of low lying areas. 
  Additionally, fast rises on area rivers, creeks, and streams 
  are likely. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

KYZ079-080-083>086-110-113-115>117-232000-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170423T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay-
Leslie-
Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, 
Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, 
Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, 
Manchester, and Hyden
1215 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Kentucky and southeast Kentucky,
  including the following areas, in south central Kentucky,
  Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, and Whitley Counties. In
  southeast Kentucky, Clay, Floyd, Knott, Knox, Leslie, and 
  Perry Counties.

* It is in effect until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* Up to an inch of rain can be expected in the watch area this
  afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible. This will bring
  event total rainfall amounts to generally between 1.5 and 2.5 
  inches.

* Heavy rainfall could lead to flooding of low lying areas. 
  Additionally, fast rises on area rivers, creeks, and streams 
  are likely. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

768 
WGUS63 KJKL 232005
FFAJKL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson KY
405 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Excessive Rainfall Could Lead To Flash Flooding Across 
Portions Of Southeast Kentucky Through This Evening...

.A west to east oriented frontal boundary, located just south of
Kentucky, continues to interact with a slowly passing area of 
deep low pressure, resulting in widespread rain showers across the
region. These showers will continue to be heavy at times, and 
will likely persist into the evening, tapering off during the
overnight. The best chance for heavier rainfall and excess runoff
problems will continue to be near the Virginia and Tennessee 
state lines.

KYZ079-080-083>086-110-113-115>117-240300-
/O.EXT.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170424T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay-
Leslie-
Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, 
Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, 
Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, 
Manchester, and Hyden
405 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of south central Kentucky and southeast Kentucky,
  including the following areas, in south central Kentucky,
  Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, and Whitley counties. In
  southeast Kentucky, Clay, Floyd, Knott, Knox, Leslie, and Perry
  counties

* Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rainfall is expected this afternoon and evening
  across the watch area, with locally higher amounts possible. 
  This will bring event total rainfall amounts to generally 
  between 2 and 4 inches along the Tennessee border, and between 
  1.5 and 3 inches elsewhere in the eastern portion of the state.

* Heavy rainfall has caused flooding of low lying areas and road 
  closures across portions of the watch area. Fast rises on area 
  rivers, creeks, and streams will continue to be likely.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

KYZ087-088-118-120-240300-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170424T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, 
Harlan, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, 
and South Williamson
405 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following areas,
  Bell, Harlan, Letcher, and Pike counties

* Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* 0.75 to 1 inch of rainfall is expected this afternoon and 
  evening across the watch area, with locally higher amounts 
  possible. This will bring event total rainfall amounts to 
  generally between 2 and 4 inches.

* Heavy rainfall has caused flooding of low lying areas and road 
  closures across portions of the watch area. Fast rises on area 
  rivers, creeks, and streams will continue to be likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

564 
WGUS63 KJKL 240233
FFAJKL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1033 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Persistent Rainfall and Runoff will Lead to Continued Flooding
Across Portions Of Southeast Kentucky Through Tonight...

.An upper level low pressure system will continue to lift to the
northeast through the area tonight producing moderate shower
activity. These showers in addition to the heavier rainfall
earlier will produce significant runoff through the night leading
to continued flooding. The showers will taper off by dawn. The 
best chance for heavier rainfall and excess runoff problems will 
continue to be near the Virginia and Tennessee state lines.

KYZ079-080-083>086-110-113-115>117-241200-
/O.EXT.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170424T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay-
Leslie-
Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, 
Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, 
Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, 
Manchester, and Hyden
1033 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of south central Kentucky and southeast Kentucky, 
  including the following areas, in south central Kentucky, 
  Laurel, McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, and Whitley. In southeast 
  Kentucky, Clay, Floyd, Knott, Knox, Leslie, and Perry. 

* Until 8 AM EDT Monday.

* Another 0.25 inches of rainfall are expected through tonight
  across the watch area, with locally higher amounts possible.
  This will bring event total rainfall amounts to generally between
  2 and 4 inches along the Tennessee border, and between 1.5 and 
  3 inches elsewhere in the eastern portion of the state. 

* Heavy rainfall has caused flooding of low lying areas and road
  closures across portions of the watch area. Runoff will continue
  through the night and fast rises on area rivers, creeks, and 
  streams will continue to be likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

KYZ087-088-118-120-241200-
/O.EXT.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170424T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, 
Harlan, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, 
and South Williamson
1033 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of southeast Kentucky, including the following 
  areas, Bell, Harlan, Letcher, and Pike. 

* Until 8 AM EDT Monday.

* Another 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rainfall are expected through 
  tonight across the watch area, with locally higher amounts 
  possible. This will bring event total rainfall amounts to 
  generally between 2 and 4 inches. 

* Heavy rainfall has caused flooding of low lying areas and road
  closures across portions of the watch area. Runoff will continue
  through the night and fast rises on area rivers, creeks, and
  streams will continue to be likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

JMW/SHALLENBERGER

597 
WGUS63 KJKL 240720
FFAJKL

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson KY
320 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120-240830-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-170424T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-
Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, 
Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, 
Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, 
Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, 
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, 
and South Williamson
320 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Kentucky and
southeast Kentucky has been cancelled. Rainfall amounts through
Monday will be less than a quarter of an inch and this will not
further exacerbate ongoing high water and flooding issues on area
rivers. 

$$

GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2017

07z sfc analysis shows a developing area of low pressure over the
central Gulf Coast to the southwest. A warm front/inverted trough
extends northeast from this stretching across southern parts of
eastern Kentucky. This boundary and points south will likely be
the location of the heaviest rains with this system through the
next 36 or so hours. Currently, showers, mainly light, continue to
propagate over the northern portions of the CWA as they stream off
to the east northeast. Skies are overcast across the area with
just warm clouds noted on satellite. Temperatures vary from near
50 degrees over the extreme northwest portion of the CWA to Low
60s southeast on the other side of that boundary. Dewpoints vary
in a similar manner with some mid 40s seen up north and low 60s
found in the south. The winds overnight show evidence of the front
with north to northeast ones for much of the CWA north of the Hal
Rogers Parkway while to the south and east they are still
southerly.

The models are actually now in excellent agreement aloft through
the short term portion of the forecast. They all depict a slow
moving and evolving upper low closing off and dropping into the
Tennessee Valley. The clustering of the models are impressive and
lends confidence to the overall forecast through 00z Monday. As
such have favored a blended solution with emphasis on the high
resolution models for specific details on PoPs and QPF through
the first 24 hours.

Sensible weather will feature a renewed development of showers,
and even some thunderstorms across the south, this morning as the
next surge of pcpn pushes into the area. This is well depicted in
the HRRR and its timing was generally followed in the grids
through 15z. The initial batch of rain after sunup will target our
central and northern counties moreso than the south, but that
changes by afternoon as the next surge will be focused more over
the Cumberland Valley. Overall, the broad sfc low passing just
south of the CWA during the short term portion of the forecast
will be a source for showers and heavier bouts of rain through
tonight before easing off to the southeast on Sunday. While the
best chances for thunder will be in the south today and this
evening heavy rain will remain a threat in the far southeast
through Sunday afternoon. For this reason, a flash flood watch
will be issued shortly for our southern tier of counties starting
at noon today and running through 4 pm Sunday. Sustained rains
during this event over the headwaters of the Cumberland and
Kentucky Rivers will also raise the specter of river flooding
later in the weekend and into the start of next week.

Temperatures will be on the chilly side through this period with
only the far south seeing readings remotely near normal today.
After highs in the low to mid 50s today, the north could rebound
into the lower 60s on Sunday thanks to the main focus of the rain
being in the south and perhaps some sun filtering through the
clouds in the afternoon. Temperatures tonight will be fairly
uniform in the upper 40s most places - coldest north and milder
south.

Started the grids from the CONSShort and ShortBlend through the
short term portion of the forecast. Did not make much adjustment
to temperatures or dewpoints given the limited diurnal range.
However, did beef up PoPs and QPF from the blend across the south
given the certainty for rain and many surges of shower activity
during this time (thunderstorms early in the event).

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2017

The upper level low will meander up the east coast Sunday night
through Tuesday with mid level heights slowly recovering through
the period as the eastern system slowly pushes farther off shore
into the Atlantic. Some lingering rain chances will hold on
Sunday night, especially in southeast Kentucky before we dry out
early Monday. This will provide a much needed dry period Monday
through Wednesday morning. Temperatures will stay cool into Monday
with highs in the 60s. As return flow kicks in Tuesday highs
should climb back into the 70s.

The next chance of rain will come late Wednesday/Wednesday night
as a shortwave trough drives another cold front across the Ohio
river valley. The front may be shearing out as it crosses the
area, so opted to stay with the lower blended pops as it may not
be a widespread rain event for the area. Regardless, a few
thunderstorms would be possible, especially up in the bluegrass
region. Whats left of the washed out front will lift back to the
north as a warm front by weeks end, with much warmer weather
surging north across the region. This is also about the time our
next system may be taking aim on the area by Friday afternoon, but
some model inconsistencies will keep the uncertainty high with the
late week system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2017

A few, mainly light, showers will continue to pass over the area
through 12z Saturday. Look for ceilings to continue to gradually
lower into or through MVFR. These will likely makes it down to IFR
and stay there for much of Saturday, as an low pressure tracks
along a stalled frontal boundary near the Tennessee and Kentucky
border. Periods of showers - at times heavy - along with a few
thunderstorms, generally along and south of a line from KSME to
KPBX, will affect the forecast area into Saturday evening. The
worst conditions will primarily be found through the southern
part of eastern Kentucky during this event. Light and variable
winds will eventually become north to northeast at 5 to 10 kts
later this morning and continue through the rest of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Sunday afternoon
for KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120.

&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

KYZ044-050>052-059-060-104-106>109-119-230900-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Powell-Menifee-Elliott-Morgan-
Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Martin-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Clay City, Stanton,
Frenchburg, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, and Inez
200 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Periods of showers will affect the area from Saturday into
Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, which may result
in minor flooding of low lying areas.

Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

KYZ058-068-069-079-080-083>088-110>118-120-230900-
Estill-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-
Knox-Bell-Harlan-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-
Leslie-Letcher-Pike-
Including the cities of Irvine, Ravenna, Brodhead, Mount Vernon,
McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Coal Run, Elkhorn City,
Pikeville, and South Williamson
200 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Saturday evening.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, bringing an increased
threat of excessive rainfall resulting in a potential for
flooding in low lying areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested on Saturday to monitor heavy
rainfall and flash flooding potential.

GEOGERIAN/GREIF