Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
306 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.NEAR TERM (Through Thursday)...

Rest afternoon/tonight...

A short wave moving across the far southeast zones and another one
across southeast Ga and extreme Ne Fl will move southeast and help
enhance storms during the course of the afternoon into the early
eve. Storms will initiate along the seabreezes and move south across
the inland areas generally west of I-95 and be across the inland
areas of the far southern zones
(Marion...Putnam...Alachua...Gilchrist) by early eve before fading
out. Some storms may be strong... especially along boundary
mergers...and produce hail in addition to strong and gusty
winds...locally heavy rain in excess of 2 inches...and frequent
lightning.

Thursday...The mid/upper low across North Carolina will move south
and be just offshore the southeast Ga coast by late afternoon.
Slightly drier air will move into much of the area around around the
upper low. However...the PW will still be around 1.90 across the far
southern zones. In addition...mid level impulses and a cold pocket
will rotate south around the low and be across the eastern half of
the region during the afternoon which will coincide with daytime
heating. Scattered storms will initiate along the seabreezes and
move south across the inland areas during the course of the
afternoon. Best coverage of storms will be across the far southern
zones (inland Flagler and Marion). Given the added lift from the
upper low and drier air aloft...some storms may be strong and
produce hail in addition to strong and gusty winds...frequent
lightning...heavy rain.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday night through Friday night/...

Cutoff low will move over NE FL and SE GA border by Thursday
evening. This feature will slide to the southwest over the Big Bend
region by daybreak Friday. There may some potentially strong
convection east of 301 during the early evening. This convection
should advect westward during the mid to late evening over I-75
corridor as embedded impulses swing between highway 301 and I-75
from north to south along the western periphery of the cutoff low.
The convection over the Suwannee Valley should wane during the late
evening as somewhat drier moves in with a northwest to northerly
upper level flow is present across the area. However, closer to the
center of the upper low, any storms that do form along the Atlantic
seabreeze during the early evening near the GA /FL border but east
of 301 could become strong to severe as 500mb temps drop to -8 to -
9C with damaging winds and possibly hail.  On Friday the the large
closed low will retrograde westward from the northern Big Bend
region to over the FL panhandle with 5h temperatures warming to -4
to -6 across SE GA and with PWs decreasing to 1.5" where only isold
convection is expected during the day.  Deep moisture will remain
across the southern tier zones, where scattered showers are
anticipated Friday.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The departing feature will move over Louisiana as a weak open low by
end of the weekend and will not have any influence over our region
through the long term.  Surface high pressure stays strong across
the Atlantic extending into South Florida, so we'll likely see more
dominant Gulf seabreeze convection through the beginning of next
week with a predominant southwest flow across the region. Have kept
low end chance PoPs for now during the weekend, with chances
increasing early next week particularly across SE GA as an eastern
CONUS trof develops and then extends southward into Georgia as as
PWATS increase near or above 2".

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered mid to late afternoon storms expected and
have VCTS at all terminals til around 23Z-00Z. Amendments may be
needed for TSRA at some terminals especially Jax...Vqq... and Gnv.

&&

.MARINE...Subtropical surface ridge axis will remain south of
the area through early next week. A light southwesterly flow will
become southeasterly each afternoon/evening due to the Atlantic sea
breeze. Seas will generally remain in the 2 to 4 foot range with
winds and seas below Small Craft Exercise Caution criteria.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  94  73  94 /  20  30  20  30
SSI  77  89  77  90 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  73  92  75  92 /  10  30  10  20
SGJ  74  89  75  89 /  20  20  10  20
GNV  72  92  73  92 /  40  40  20  30
OCF  73  91  73  92 /  40  60  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&

PP/SC/NM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
338 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-200900-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
338 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening. Frequent lighting, heavy rainfall and
localized flooding are the primary hazards. A few storms could
produce strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day...most
numerous in the afternoon and evening. Strong storms are possible
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to self activate this afternoon if warnings
are issued.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

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