Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
234 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.NEAR TERM /Through Monday/...
Numerous showers and storms were developing across the region,
and expect numerous to widespread showers and storms to continue
through the afternoon and early evening. Various shortwaves will
move across southeast Georgia towards the FL/GA border tonight,
and showers/storms may continue across southeast Georgia
overnight. The main threats from convection this afternoon will be
locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds from wet microbursts, and
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Overnight lows will be in the
70s.

Weak upper troughing will remain over the region, stuck between
upper ridges over the western Atlantic and the middle of the
country. A weak surface trough will stall across central Georgia
tonight and remain through Monday. The base of the upper trough
will shift slowly southward into northeast Florida late Monday
afternoon. Numerous to widespread showers and storms are forecast
once again. Drier low level air will push eastward across north
central and northeast Florida late in the day, which may lead to
storms ending by the early evening hours. The earlier start to
convection will lead to lower high temperatures in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

A trough of low pressure will be nearly stationary over the
Southeastern US this period, with this boundary extending to just
North of the forecast area. Otherwise, surface high pressure will
remain to the East of the region. Daily rounds of mainly diurnally
driven afternoon and evening convection will be expected, with the
proximity of the stalled trough to the North providing an additional
source of convergence. Therefore higher than normal convective
chances are anticipated this period. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal this period.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Surface high pressure will slide to the South early this period,
with the ridge to the Southeast for much of this period. With the
ridge further to the South, the persistent Southeastern US trough
will extend further Southeast. The combination of these features
will lead to a prevailing Westerly flow this period, which should
yield a little drier period. Although isolated to scattered diurnal
convection will be expected each day. Above normal temperatures will
be expected this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers/Storms will be over/near the TAF sites this afternoon
into the evening before dissipating. Restrictions are likely at
many TAF sites, with IFR/LIFR conditions and gusty winds. South to
southeast winds 5-10 knots will prevail outside of showers and
storms, with light southwesterly winds overnight. Storms will
develop near the TAF sites near the end of the TAF period on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure remains over the Atlantic and will drift
further east and strengthen as the week progresses. This will
allow for mainly south to southwest flow, outside of sea breeze
formation near the coast each afternoon. An approaching surface
trough will increase chances and coverage of thunderstorms through
the middle of the week. Seas will remain mostly 2 to 4 feet.

Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk of rip currents through
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  89  73  91 /  60  60  40  70
SSI  78  87  77  88 /  50  70  20  40
JAX  75  90  75  90 /  30  80  20  60
SGJ  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  30  50
GNV  73  91  73  91 /  30  60  30  70
OCF  73  91  73  91 /  20  70  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Kennedy/Struble/Corless

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
239 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-170645-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
239 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening across northeast Florida and southeast
Georgia. Frequent lighting, heavy rainfall and localized flooding
are the primary hazards. A few storms could produce strong to
marginally severe wind gusts.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...
An active summertime pattern is expected through Thursday, with
scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
253 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

FLZ022-035-036-161945-
Columbia FL-Alachua FL-Gilchrist FL-
253 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GILCHRIST...WEST
CENTRAL ALACHUA AND SOUTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

At 253 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of High Springs, or 10 miles northeast of Trenton,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Alachua, High Springs and Newberry.

LAT...LON 2989 8269 2976 8240 2954 8258 2954 8262
      2965 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 205DEG 13KT 2968 8266

STRUBLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
302 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

FLZ036-040-161945-
Alachua FL-Marion FL-
302 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALACHUA AND WESTERN
MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 302 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rainbow Lakes Estates, moving north at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Rainbow Lakes Estates, Dunnellon and Romeo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2902 8242 2905 8247 2904 8250 2904 8253
      2921 8254 2922 8240 2948 8241 2948 8255
      2950 8229 2902 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 188DEG 10KT 2915 8250

STRUBLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

FLZ036-037-040-161945-
Putnam FL-Alachua FL-Marion FL-
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALACHUA...
SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND NORTH CENTRAL MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

At 305 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Anthony, or 7 miles south of Citra, moving north at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Fort McCoy, Citra, Sparr, Cross Creek, Anthony, Reddick, McIntosh,
Lowell, Lochloosa and Burbank.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2921 8202 2924 8222 2954 8222 2950 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 188DEG 10KT 2930 8211

STRUBLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
306 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             2 S BAYARD              30.12N 81.51W
07/16/2017  M0.50 INCH       DUVAL              FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER OBSERVED PEA SIZE HAIL RANGING FROM
            QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH.

&&

NMCGINN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
310 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

GAZ149>151-163-162000-
Pierce GA-Ware GA-Atkinson GA-Clinch GA-
310 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PIERCE...
SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON...NORTHWESTERN WARE AND NORTHERN CLINCH
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manor, or 7 miles northeast of Argyle, moving north at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Pebble Hill, Manor and Millwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3107 8249 3110 8270 3136 8271 3130 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 188DEG 7KT 3116 8259

STRUBLE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

FLZ021-022-035-036-162000-
Columbia FL-Suwannee FL-Alachua FL-Gilchrist FL-
321 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GILCHRIST...NORTHWESTERN
ALACHUA...SOUTHEASTERN SUWANNEE AND SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 320 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Bell, moving north at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Bell, Ichetucknee Spring, High Springs, Fort White, Branford,
Hildreth and Guaranto Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2972 8294 2977 8295 2980 8292 2981 8293
      2983 8292 2983 8289 2988 8287 2990 8290
      2989 8292 2995 8292 2996 8293 2996 8295
      3002 8295 2996 8255 2968 8264 2971 8295
      2972 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 188DEG 7KT 2977 8273

STRUBLE