Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
251 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Near stationary frontal boundary will slowly sink South across
region through Tuesday as high pressure builds to the Northwest. The
airmass will remain moist across the region through Tuesday. The
combination of the moist airmass, diurnal instability and convergence
along boundary will result in numerous and showers and storms
this afternoon into the evening, then again Tuesday afternoon.
Shower activity could linger through the night across NE FL due to
the frontal boundary. Daytime temperatures will be a little
cooler than normal this period due to the coverage of clouds and
precipitation.

.SHORT TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY/...

Old frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary west-east
over the central FL area with a plume of moisture along
and just north of the boundary. Southeast Georgia remains
relatively in a dry airmass. High pressure is centered over VA
area which slowly moves eastward through Wed-Wed night resulting
in breezy onshore flow for the coastal areas. From Wed night
through Thursday the trend in the model guidance is for the front
and associated moisture to shift northward in response mean layer
ridge moving into the wern ATLC and weak trough aloft to dissipate
along the SE U.S. coast. Low level flow turns east to southeast
pumping deep moisture well into GA Thursday to Thursday night. Wed
should see scattered convection mainly over inland NE FL
associated with low level convergence and daytime heating...and
more isolated shallow convection elsewhere. Rain chances should
diminish through the evening but onshore flow may bring a low
chance of showers to the coastal areas mainly over NE FL through
overnight hours. Better chance of rain all areas Thursday as old
front drifts northward and sea breezes act on this enhanced
moisture. Best chances in the ~55-65 percent range over inland
areas from Marion county northwest to Valdosta and Waycross GA. A
bit lower chances elsewhere. Chances may start first along the
coast as sea breeze forms...then elevated chances of rain
translate inland mid to late aftn ahead of (west) of the east sea
breeze and toward the west coast sea breeze. Locally heavy
rainfall is the main concern both Wed and Thu...especially
northeast FL where highest moisture and low level forcing is
expected. High temps near 90 inland to around the 85-89 near the
coastal areas Wed...and a bit lower all areas on Thu mid to upper
80s due to higher rain chances and clouds.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY-MONDAY/...

Deep layer moisture expected over the area Friday though Saturday
mean layer ridge will be parked over north and central FL. PWATS
look to be about 105-120 percent of normal. We expect at least
scattered showers and storms each day Fri and Sat though largely
delayed until least late morning or early aftn. Whatever is left
of weak front lifts north into southeast U.S. Fri through Sat.
Southeast low level flow Fri should push the best chance of rain
inland...but more southerly flow expected Sat which will push the
axis of higher rain chances a little further eastward. Sun-
Mon...both GFS and ECMWF develop weak low level trough/thermal
trough over GA and nrn GA which should maintain elevated rain
chances. Each day, model consensus gives rain chances around or
above 60 percent. Max temps each day will be held in check by
clouds/precip...close to normal or just below normal in the upper
80s to lower 90s. Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and
strong gusty winds will be possible with the strongest storms each
day.

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage across the area this
afternoon, with restrictions expected. The convection will dissipate
later this evening, then initiate once again toward noon on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

A nearly stationary front will slowly move South across area waters
through Tuesday night, as high pressure builds to the Northwest and
North. High pressure ridge will build to the Northeast Wednesday,
then to the East over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  90  70  89 /  20  40  20  20
SSI  74  86  75  85 /  30  40  20  10
JAX  72  86  71  87 /  60  60  20  20
SGJ  73  87  73  85 /  60  60  20  30
GNV  72  88  71  89 /  60  70  20  40
OCF  73  89  71  89 /  50  70  20  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Struble/Shashy/McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
508 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-271000-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
508 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A slow moving front will move across the area today with waves of
showers and isolated thunderstorms expected through midday. This
afternoon and evening, thunderstorm coverage will increase
especially along the coast and inland generally east of the I-75
corridor. Locally heavy rainfall could cause flooding, especially
where heavy rainfall recently occurred. Gusty winds and frequent
lightning strikes are also possible. Storm motion will be to the
east around 10 to 15 mph.

Rainfall will decrease in coverage and intensity after sunset as
the front settles across north Florida.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Thunderstorms are possible each day, with an increase in coverage
this weekend in advance of a front. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty
winds and frequent lightning will be possible in the strongest
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

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