Small Craft Advisory 33, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
358 AM EDT Sun Jul 30 2017

...WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NE FL THROUGH WED...

.NEAR TERM...Today & Tonight...

Clusters of rainfall with embedded tstorms will continue track
eastward across NE Florida today ahead of a cold front that was
edging south of the Altamaha River basin early this morning.
Pressure tendencies indicated progressively falling values across
the eastern Gulf of Mexico and south of the I-10 corridor of NE FL early
this morning in advance of a deepening mid/upper level trough axis
carving southward across the eastern CONUS.

Through today, as the upper trough digs and deepens, a low pressure
center is expected to form along the surface front across the Big
Bend or NE Florida. This low will slow the passage of the front
across NE FL today which will focus a moist low level WSW out of
the Gulf near and south of the broad low forming along the frontal
zone. The high moisture content (PWATS 2.3 inches off of JAX 00Z
RAOB) will continue to fuel clusters of showers and isolated tstorms
tracking across NE FL through the day, while the swath of precipitation
will gradually edge southward as the upper trough deepens. Locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard today, especially along
and south of the I-10 corridor where training bands of rainfall are
likely. Waves of isolated thunderstorms are expected through the
day, with a chance of a few stronger storms mainly this afternoon
capable of producing gusty wet downbursts with the aid of diurnal
instability. Drier conditions are expected across SE GA compared
to recent days as more stable NNE flow funnels southward trailing
the surface frontal passage this morning.

Tonight rain chances will gradually tapper southward as the front
and low begin to stall across central Florida. Breezy NE flow
will funnel down the coast and will focus the highest rain chances
across our NE FL zones from St. Augustine to Gainesville
southward where bands of showers and isolated tstorms will be
possible as they more inland from the Atlantic coast. Mostly dry
conditions and gradually clearing skies expected across SE GA.

Temperatures will trend below normal today with highs ranging in
the low/mid 80s across NE FL to the mid/upper 80s across SE GA.
Low temperatures tonight will mostly range in the 70s although
some upper 60s will be possible near the Altamaha River basin.

.SHORT TERM...Mon & Tue...

High rain chances will continue across portions of NE FL as the
surface front stalls across central FL and a broad surface low
meanders along the frontal zone near the central FL Gulf Coast.
Drier conditions expected across SE GA as high pressure building
across the OH River valley edges toward the mid-Atlantic coast,
with a pencil ridge axis extending down the lee of Appalachians
and across SE GA. Breezy ENE winds between the trough to the south
and the ridge to the north will bring waves of showers and
isolated tstorms inland through the period with diurnal
enhancement. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main hazard with
the potential for training cells along the FL Atlantic coast
generally south of St. Augustine and as far inland as Gainesville
and Trenton.

High temperatures will trend in the 80s with the warmest temps
across SE GA due to less cloud cover. Min temps will continue in
the 70s across NE FL and along the Atlantic coast, while some
locations across SE GA will fall into the upper 60s due to drier
air.

.LONG TERM...Wed through Sun...

A dynamic period as the front across central FL lifts northward
across the forecast area late Wed into Thu as a warm front as
stacked ridge begins to build from the Atlantic across the
southern FL peninsula before the next cold front approaches next
weekend. Wed-Fri highest rain chances will continue across NE FL
while edging northward across SE GA into Thu as the warm front
lifts across the area. Low level winds will veer from ENE Wed to
the SSW into Fri trailing the warm front. Temperatures will
continue to hover near to slightly below climo values due to cloud
cover. The surface cold front will approach from the NW next
weekend with the boundary likely stalling north or near the
forecast area as both the ECMWF and GFS40 advertised a
strengthening Bermuda ridge across the FL peninsula. Anticipate
elevated rain chances across SE GA near the frontal zone as well
as toward the Atlantic coast during the afternoon/evening due to
prevailing west coast sea breeze.

Temperatures will trend near to slightly below normal for max
values and near normal mins in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...

Waves of light to moderate rainfall will fade across SE GA
through the afternoon while increasing in intensity and coverage
across NE FL through the day. Restrictions in rainfall are
expected across NE FL through the day with prevailing MVFR
advertised and VCTS with IFR to LIFR possible in heaviest
rainfall. Breezy NE winds will develop along the coast this
morning as frontal boundary settles south of the terminals.
Rainfall will tapper off across NE FL this evening with VCSH
advertised beyond 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will move south across the area today as a broad
area of low pressure forms along the front over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Small craft exercise caution (SEC) conditions due to
NNE wind surge of 15-20 kts expected over the GA waters trailing
the front this morning. The front and the low will stall across
central Florida tonight through Tuesday as high pressure builds
north of the region. Elevated winds and building seas expected to
continue SCEC over the GA waters through Monday. The front will
begin to lift back northward up the Florida peninsula late
Wednesday through Thursday as a warm front. Waves of rainfall and
isolated tstorms are expected through much of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today for SE GA coast due to increase
in onshore flow as frontal settles across NE FL. An elevated rip
current risk is expected Mon & Tue due to persistent onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  68  88  67 /  10   0   0  10
SSI  84  75  84  74 /  50  20  10  20
JAX  84  72  86  71 /  80  30  30  30
SGJ  83  74  85  74 /  90  50  40  40
GNV  84  72  87  72 /  90  50  50  40
OCF  84  73  86  72 /  90  60  70  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Enyedi/Shuler

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