Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
954 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
SPC has expanded the Enhanced Risk of severe weather area to
include much of southeast Georgia for this afternoon, and
again for overnight tonight. Hi-res models are showing a squall
line entering southeast Georgia this afternoon and then
progressing towards the I-10 corridor by the evening while
weakening. The main threats along the squall line will be
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, and isolated tornadoes cannot
be ruled out. In addition, temperatures are forecast to fall to
-13 to -14C at 500mb this afternoon in southeast Georgia, and
rather large hail is possible. South to southwesterly winds will
increase to 10-15 mph with higher gusts this afternoon, and very
warm temperatures with near record to record highs are expected.
Highs will reach the low to mid 80s across much of the region.

Models are struggling with the evolution of the second round of
severe weather tonight. The ECMWF shows this the best as the
second wave moves across the southeast. The low-level jet is
forecast to strengthen, and 0-1km helicity values are forecast to
increase to >400 m2/s2 across portions of southeast Georgia and
the Suwannee Valley overnight tonight. An area of convection is
forecast to move into the panhandle of Florida and then into the
Suwannee Valley and across southeast Georgia late in the night.
This could be a very dangerous situation across the area mentioned
late tonight as supercells develop and move into the region,
with significant severe weather including strong tornadoes (EF2
or greater) possible.

Significant severe weather in the form of a squall line is also
forecast to move through the region on Wednesday, with the main
threat being damaging winds with winds in excess of 75 mph.
Isolated tornadoes are also possible within the squall line, and
especially if discreet cells develop out ahead of the line.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CIGS and fog this morning will become VFR by the
afternoon across the region. A line of showers/storms is forecast
to move into southeast Georgia this afternoon, and may reach the
TAF sites late in the afternoon or early evening. Southwesterly
winds will increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon with higher
gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  78  63  78  52 /  90  90  90  30
SSI  75  63  74  55 /  90  80  90  50
JAX  84  64  79  54 /  50  60  90  50
SGJ  82  64  79  56 /  30  50  80  70
GNV  83  64  78  53 /  30  50  90  50
OCF  84  64  80  56 /  20  40  90  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Kennedy//Guillet

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
959 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-221500-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
959 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL MOVE INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
TOTAL STORM RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TWO TO FIVE
INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ONE TO THREE INCH
RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED WHEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
138 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

GAZ132>135-211930-
Jeff Davis GA-Bacon GA-Appling GA-Coffee GA-
138 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BACON...EASTERN JEFF
DAVIS...EAST CENTRAL COFFEE AND NORTHWESTERN APPLING COUNTIES UNTIL
230 PM EST...

At 138 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
West Green, or near Douglas, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
damage. Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation within this storm.
Tornadoes may develop with little or no advanced warning.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Baxley, Graham, West Green, Denton, Pine Grove and Grays
Landing.

LAT...LON 3195 8241 3196 8240 3195 8239 3196 8239
      3195 8237 3194 8238 3194 8237 3179 8222
      3149 8283 3157 8292 3196 8246 3197 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 231DEG 34KT 3158 8280

NELSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
156 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

GAZ132-133-149-212000-
Jeff Davis GA-Atkinson GA-Coffee GA-
156 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFF DAVIS...COFFEE
AND WESTERN ATKINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EST...

At 156 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Scotland to near Pridgen to near Lenox.
Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
damage. Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation within this storm.
Tornadoes may develop with little or no advanced warning.

Locations impacted include...
Douglas, Hazlehurst, Pearson, Willacoochee, Broxton, Ambrose,
Snipesville, Pridgen and Denton.

LAT...LON 3197 8246 3162 8279 3119 8288 3118 8305
      3128 8303 3134 8307 3140 8314 3146 8315
      3151 8308 3161 8306 3166 8300 3178 8300
      3178 8287 3192 8268 3196 8255 3195 8249
      3196 8250 3197 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 246DEG 53KT 3203 8283 3167 8300 3126 8352

NELSON