Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
837 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Not too many changes to the forecast tonight, other than keeping
some higher chance end PoPs for at least the first part of
tonight. Numerous thunderstorms across central and southern
Florida this evening, and with generally southerly flow, activity
should continue moving northward into northeast Florida over the
next several hours. Have hung on to scattered storms through the
very early morning hours across Florida and the eastern third of
southeastern Georgia counties. There may be a few storms capable
of gusty winds, but for the most part, locally heavy rainfall will
be the primary concern, especially if training continues south of
a Gilchrist County to St. Johns County line. Guidance has been
quiet regarding fog, but there will probably be a few places
early Saturday morning that see some patchy fog.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms continue to move northward through
central Florida. Have timed some convection to a few terminals
(KSSI & KGNV), but confidence is low overall in convective
coverage overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
just some patchy MVFR near sunrise, especially in locations that
had a lot of precip today. Winds will be generally out of the
south to southwest and less than 8 knots outside of convection.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again tomorrow
across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia.

&&

.MARINE...
South to Southwest flow expected through tonight with winds
peaking right around 15 kt...possibly higher for a brief time
offshore. Seas up to 2-5 ft and for most part looks like dominant
seas will be in the swell spectrum (roughly 9 to 12 seconds).
Latest guidance suggests very long periods associated with
tropical cyclone Irma may begin Mon night or Tue with periods in
the 15-17 second range. Main impacts in the next 24-36 hours will
be offshore moving storms. Weak frontal boundary/wind shift will
be possible Saturday disrupting the wind field to more variable
wind. Winds turns west to northwest Sunday due to trofiness in
the area...but may turn back to southeast with the sea breeze. Sfc
ridge will work north of the area early next week... providing
for more east to southeast flow.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk may continue tomorrow due to easterly
swells for northeast Florida. Lower risk of rip currents is
expected for southeast Georgia waters. Increased surf and rip
current risk anticipated next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  89  70  90 /  20  50  20  20
SSI  77  86  74  86 /  30  70  40  20
JAX  75  88  72  89 /  30  70  20  30
SGJ  74  87  74  87 /  30  70  40  30
GNV  73  87  71  89 /  50  60  20  40
OCF  74  88  72  90 /  50  70  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Elsenheimer/Nelson/McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
850 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-030100-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
850 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible overnight. A few storms could
produce brief, gusty winds, but locally heavy rainfall is the
primary hazard.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...
Increased surf and rip current risk possible for most of the next
week.

Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon thunderstorms each
day will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

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