Severe Thunderstorm Warning 283, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
855 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...

Broad and deep cyclonic flow noted across the southeast U.S. with
the remnants of Harvey lifting northeast into KY today...and diffuse
sfc trough extends through central GA southwest to the wern FL
panhandle. Mid level high pressure over the wern Atlantic will slide
eastward as well as the full latitude trough around Harvey pushing
east as well. JAX 12z sounding showed sfc-6 km winds of about 20
knots and modified sfc based parcel to achieve CAPE of about 3100-
3400 J/kg, which is in agreement GFS fcst sounding. DCAPE values are
enhanced as well...just over 900 J/kg.

Latest forecast looks on track for numerous showers and storms
today...perhaps widespread over parts of eastern northeast FL. This
is a little above the consensus. Current radar shows isolated to
scattered showers and storms forming over the central Fl panhandle
near Tallahassee, and additional activity southwest of Cross City.
Initial convection activity moving into our area later this morning
will be forced by outflows from morning convection and the west
coast sea breeze. This convection will push east to northeast and
run up against the weaker Atlantic sea breeze, fcst to be located
near I-95, which should provide a chance for a couple of strong to
severe storms. Storm movement at near 20 mph along with the enhanced
DCAPE should result in a chance of gusty winds in some of the
stronger storms. Don't see any compelling reason to change POPS too
much, just mainly to adjust timing a bit based on trends in radar
and latest HRRR model. Highs today expected to reach lower 90s
eastern zones where convection will be later to start (mid to late
aftn hours...with temps near 90 or upper 80s across the west zones.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions at this time. Numerous showers and storms later today
fcst with a TSRA TEMPO group around the 18z-22z time frame. Due to
the some potentially strong storm intensity and rich moisture,
brief IFR conditions and gusty winds should be expected in
thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to severe.

&&

.MARINE...

South-Southwest flow will continue at 10-15 knots with seas 2-5 ft.
winds may become south-southeast by mid to late aftn and early
evening. Main impacts will be offshore moving storms with gusty
winds possible after 2 pm. Just minor tweaks in the fcst for the CWF
update and noting that wave periods are a bit longer than
anticipated around 12 seconds so will make a couple of adjustments.

Rip Currents: Noting longer wave periods per buoy readings this
morning and potentially higher breakers in the surf zone today so
may tweak risk to moderate all beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  73  89  71 /  60  20  50  20
SSI  89  76  86  75 /  70  40  60  40
JAX  93  75  87  73 /  70  30  60  30
SGJ  91  75  86  74 /  80  30  60  30
GNV  90  73  86  72 /  70  60  60  20
OCF  91  74  88  73 /  80  50  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Shashy/Corless

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-020845-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
1000 AM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered storms will move east northeast into the area by early
this afternoon and become numerous to widespread along the I-95
corridor in the mid to late afternoon hours. Isolated strong to
severe storms are possible. The strongest storms will be capable
of localized damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches today.

A few late night storms may move northeast towards the I-75
corridor late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon thunderstorms each day
will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are asked to self activate if warnings are issued this
afternoon.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

Shuler

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