Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
257 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.NEAR TERM /Through Sunday/...
It was another hot summer day across the region with temperatures
mainly in the low to mid 90s. Scattered showers and isolated
storms were developing along/south of the frontal boundary in
southeast Georgia this afternoon. Scattered convection developed
along the Gulf coast and collapsed as it moved inland across the
Suwannee Valley, with an outflow boundary spreading eastward
across northeast Florida. Other convection was moving slowly
across Marion County. The east coast sea breeze was beginning to
move inland, and expect scattered showers and storms to develop
along the merger of the sea breeze and outflow boundaries through
the afternoon and into the early evening. Some strong storms with
gusty winds are possible due to the drier air aloft. Storms will
wind down in the evening with loss of daytime heating. Overnight
lows will be in the 70s.

The near term pattern begins with an upper low over the southern
Gulf, a trough across the Ohio Valley and upper ridges east of
Florida and over Texas. The upper low will continue to slowly push
to the west while the upper trough moves to the eastern seaboard
and into the western Atlantic. Upper ridging will build westward
across the region through the period, with precipitable water
values falling to around 1.7-1.8 inches. At the surface, the ridge
will shift northward through Sunday, with low level flow becoming
easterly. A surface boundary will remain across southeast Georgia
through Sunday. A surface trough was moving through the Bahamas
and will move across south Florida and into central Florida on
Sunday. The region will remain on the subsident side of the trough
through the day. This combined with the subsidence aloft due to
ridging building in from the east will lead to lower rain chances
on Sunday. The best chance of showers/storms will be along the
surface boundary across southeast Georgia into the Suwannee
Valley, with only 20-30% chance elsewhere. It will be hot on
Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s to near
90 at the beaches due to the onshore flow. Heat indices will be in
the 100-107F.

.SHORT TERM (Sunday night through Tuesday)...
On Sunday night the upper level low pressure system continues to
move west over the Gulf of Mexico with high pressure building
across the local area aloft. At the surface the western periphery
of the Bermuda ridge will be across the coastal waters with some
convection continuing overnight over the coastal waters.

On Monday the ridge axis shifts north into the Carolinas and
northern Georgia with with a southeasterly flow and a few showers
moving in from off the ocean and also developing along the sea
breeze front. For the eclipse will continue with a slight chance
to chance pops (20-40%) across most of the area. Biggest problem
for viewing will be the sea breeze will not move too far inland
from the beaches and may have anvil tops which could disrupt
viewing even along the coast. Right now will go with 60 to 70
percent sky cover (broken cloudiness) across north Florida and
southeast Georgia...sorry. Overall probably the best chance for
good viewing will be along the beaches and offshore but still
might be difficult. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s/low
90s before the eclipse, and any areas that are not seeing much in
the way of cloud cover could cool off a few degrees with max
obscurity (2-3 pm).

On Monday night and Tuesday the surface high pressure ridge
remains to the north of the area with a tropical wave beginning to
nose up from the Bahamas into the region and then hanging along
the coastal waters and Florida peninsula for the next few days.
The wave will enhance afternoon and evening convection especially
over the southern portions of the area.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Sunday)...
An upper level trough begins to dig into the east coast states
with a frontal boundary being driven ahead of it into the
southeast states through Friday. The Western periphery of the
ridge, tropical wave and baroclinic zone all interact in a mess
over the coastal waters and across the area with a good chance of
convection each afternoon and evening over the land and at all
time over the coastal waters.

Over the weekend it looks like any surface low which might
develop along the wave and/or baroclinic zone is ejected out to
the northeast. The upper level trough begins to move offshore but
the surface boundary hangs across the area as a focusing mechanism
for storms each afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and storms will develop along the merger of an
outflow boundary and the east coast sea breeze this afternoon near
the east coast TAF sites. In addition convection was slowly
moving north from Marion County and may impact KGNV in the next
couple hours. VFR conditions are possible outside of restrictions
from showers/storms through early this evening. VFR conditions are
forecast overnight. Low stratus and patchy fog is possible in
regions that receive heavy rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
The surface ridge axis will shift north tonight and Sunday. The
surface ridge will remain northeast of the region early next week.
A frontal boundary will then shift into the southeast by the
middle of the week, and the ridge will shift back to the south
again.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  94  75  92 /   0  30  10  40
SSI  79  90  79  88 /  10  20  20  30
JAX  75  92  76  89 /  30  20  20  40
SGJ  75  90  77  87 /  30  20  30  40
GNV  73  93  74  91 /  20  30  20  40
OCF  74  94  75  91 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Kennedy/Sandrik/McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
305 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-201000-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
305 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Patchy fog early this morning will reduce visibilities to less
than one half mile in a few locations.

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will produce areas of
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected
Sunday through Friday. A few strong thunderstorms are possible
each day, with gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and
heavy downpours being the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
619 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

FLZ031-032-192300-
Bradford FL-Clay FL-
619 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD AND WEST
CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 619 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Starke to near Kingsley. Movement was
north at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Starke, Kingsley, Camp Blanding, Lawtey and Hampton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3009 8214 3008 8194 2979 8200 2986 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 198DEG 10KT 2998 8211 2991 8205

ENYEDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
637 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

FLZ023-GAZ164-192315-
Baker FL-Charlton GA-
637 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BAKER AND SOUTH CENTRAL CHARLTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 636 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking clusters of thunderstorms
merging across Baker County, generally along a line extending from
near Taylor to Sanderson. Movement was northwest at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Taylor, Macclenny, Glen St. Mary and Sanderson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8243 3024 8242 3016 8212 3046 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 129DEG 4KT 3039 8223 3026 8225

ENYEDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
644 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

FLZ031-032-037-192315-
Putnam FL-Bradford FL-Clay FL-
644 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BRADFORD...
NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
EDT...

At 644 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
George's Lake, or 10 miles north of Interlachen, moving north at 20
mph.

Wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Keystone Heights, George's Lake, Lake Geneva, Florahome and Putnam
Hall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2976 8173 2965 8187 2978 8207 2999 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 160DEG 17KT 2977 8186

ENYEDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
657 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

FLZ023-024-GAZ164-192330-
Baker FL-Inland Nassau FL-Charlton GA-
657 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU...EASTERN
BAKER AND SOUTH CENTRAL CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 657 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Macclenny, or 13 miles northeast of Raiford, moving north at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Macclenny and Glen St. Mary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3019 8207 3020 8223 3050 8223 3043 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 169DEG 8KT 3024 8213

ENYEDI

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