Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
300 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY...
...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.NEAR TERM...
Tonight...Sfc features tonight will include the cold front over
southern Carolinas to central GA to south central MS. Ahead of the
front...deep layer moisture with PWATS in excess of 2 inches
combined with digging shortwave trough will lead to rounds of
showers and storms. Some of this activity will produce gusty winds
and potential local flooding issues as it progresses east to
southeast. 12 hr accumulations of NAM and GFS showing locations
receiving 1-2 inches...possibly a bit higher but where this falls is
still questionable. The focus of heavier precip will gradually shift
southward overnight...as the front slides southward into to near the
FL/GA state line by 12z Sun. It's possible the heavier shower
and storm activity will be south of the FL /GA state line after
about 4 AM.

Sunday...Frontal boundary looks to be near the FL /GA state line
around 12z with moist plume along and ahead of the feature. Good
low level convergence and weak areas of low pressure along the
front will aid in elevated rain chances. Have mentioned
locally heavy rain the forecast along with gusty winds. Could see
localized amounts of 2-4 inches in a few places but still is under
flash flood guidance. Front and cool advection north of feature will
lead to lower high temps than prior days with highs in the mid/upper
80s...with even some lower 80s possible. Winds along the coast
mainly north of JAX may be breezy due pinched gradient.

.SHORT TERM.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Models diverge somewhat in this period with regard to how far South
the cold front pushes, but are coming more into agreement with a
slower system. The NAM/GFS and ECMWF develop waves on the front
which slow it. With a slower progression, front will move into NE FL
Sunday night, then stall due to the waves along it Monday. Expect
this boundary to still slide just to the South Monday night into
Tuesday.

Night time temperatures will be a little below normal this period,
with near normal in NE FL.

Day time readings will be below normal this period. Sunshine will
keep SE GA near normal Monday into Tuesday, despite cooler and drier
airmass advecting South. Due to cloud and precipitation coverage NE
FL will trend below normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Boundary is expected to lift back North across central portion of
the forecast area Tuesday night through Thursday, and gradually
weaken. This will lead to a period with above normal precipitation
chances and below normal temperatures.

Ridging will build to the East/Southeast late in the week as another
cold front approaches from the North. At this point it looks like
this front will remain to the North through Saturday. Temperatures
will trend near to slightly below normal late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing VFR conditions expected to prevail but scattered to
numerous showers are expected through the TAF period. CIG and VSBY
restrictions down to IFR and potentially lower are expected with this
activity given the deep layer moisture. Gusty winds can be expected
in and near the showers and storms. Winds will shift from west to
southwest today....then to north to northeast on Sunday but
generally with lower wind speeds expected.

&&

.MARINE...South-southwest winds will continue through the
night then expected frontal boundary will push into our
waters early Sunday morning by 10z over southeast GA waters.
then slipping into northeast FL waters around 12z/13z. Initial
surge of northeast to north winds may top 15-20 kt and gusty
then lay down by late aftn and evening...so winds may need to
eventually increase further for the forecast on Sunday. Waves
of heavy rainfall will develop along and near the front, while
onshore and drier flow will impact the waters just north of the
frontal zone. The front will settle farther south across the FL
peninsula late Sun into Mon as high pressure builds north of the
region with onshore flow persisting over the local waters through
Wed.

Rip Currents: Low risk continue today. A moderate risk expected for
at least the SE GA coast on Sunday due to increasing northeast
to north winds. An elevated risk of rip currents is
likely early next week due to persistent onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  87  69  88 /  50  20  10  10
SSI  75  83  75  84 /  70  60  10  20
JAX  75  84  73  86 /  90  90  30  30
SGJ  76  83  74  86 /  60  80  40  50
GNV  76  85  72  87 /  70  80  30  60
OCF  76  85  73  86 /  60  80  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Shashy/Struble/McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1230 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-301100-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
1230 PM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...
...ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the area today ahead
of an approaching cold front. Showers and Thunderstorms will
increase in coverage across northeast Florida through the
afternoon, and across southeast Georgia where waves of locally
heavy rainfall will be possible. A few strong to severe storms
capable of strong gusty winds will be possible. Storm motion will be
toward the east at about 20 to 25 mph.

Elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms expected through the
night as the frontal boundary shifts southward toward north Florida.
The potential for heavy rainfall will increase along the Atlantic
coast after midnight, as well as across the Suwannee River Valley.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible.

Heat index values will range from 100 to 105 degrees this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

A front will stall over central Florida by late Sunday and through
early next week, with numerous thunderstorms expected each day for
all of north central Florida and most of northeast Florida. Flooding
is expected to become a primary hazard early next week as several rounds
of strong thunderstorms potentially impact north central and northeast
Florida. The frontal boundary will begin to move slowly northward towards
midweek, with numerous thunderstorms expected to expand into southeast
Georgia by Thursday.

An elevated rip current risk is possible along the coast early
next week due to increased onshore flow.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed at this time.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>