Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
350 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.NEAR TERM...
Rest of the afternoon into Tonight...isolated to scattered
convection expected with isolated storms strong to possibly severe
given the amount of instabilty that is building up. SBCAPE noted
peaking out around 3500-4000 J/kg and DCAPE of about 1000 J/kg.
Activity should be moving roughly south to southwest at about 10
knots. Main threats will be brief damaging wind gust and some hail.
Activity should be winding down by 11 pm or so as the low levels
continue to cool. Some guidance suggests indicates patchy fog over
NE FL and mentioned some fog near the I-75 corridor late tonight.
Lows in the lower to mid 70s. Upper level low, off the NE FL coast,
is expected to be moving through NE FL this evening and begin to
drift slowly west Friday.

Friday...sfc ridge stays to our south, while mid to upper level low
drifts west toward the FL panhandle/SW GA/SE AL later in the day.
Better forcing associated with being on the eastern side of the
upper level combined with sufficient moisture, though only near the
average for July at about 1.7 inches will lead to scattered aftn
showers and storms again. Best favored areas will be around the I-75
corridor up into inland SE GA. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s.

.SHORT TERM /Saturday and Sunday/...

Our area will be between upper low to our west and upper high to our
east. Steering flow will become southwesterly. Hot and humid
conditions will prevail, especially on Saturday with lower than
normal thunderstorm activity expected. Isolated to widely scattered
storms on Saturday shifting east during the day and continuing deep
into the evening hours. Convection will become more scattered to
numerous on Sunday across northeast Florida.

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...

Model blend yields at or below normal temps early in the week, then
at or slightly below normal by mid to late week as thunderstorm
coverage increases with upper low moving back into the region. Light
offshore flow will continue through the week. Scattered storms
expected early in the week becoming numerous Wednesday and Thursday,
especially along and north of the I-10 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers and storms expected around the TAF sites rest of the
aftn except probably not for SGJ and CRG as the east coast sea
breeze has moved well inland. Showers and storms will end through
the late evening, with prevailing VFR continuing. Some fog may sneak
into GNV late tonight but lower confidence suggests to leave out at
this time. Another round of showers and storms Friday mainly in
aftn.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface ridge axis will remain south of the area through early next
week. We expect southwest flow through Saturday then becoming
southeast as the Atlantic sea breeze develops. Seas will generally
remain in the 2 to 4 foot range with winds and seas below Small
Craft Exercise Caution criteria. Somewhat stronger southwest flow
Sunday through early next week may mute the east coast sea breeze a
bit...as a sfc trough and front push into the Carolinas and possibly
north GA.

Rip Currents: Mainly low risk, though rip currents will be more
prevalent around piers and jetties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  95  73  95 /  20  30  20  20
SSI  77  90  76  91 /   0  20  10  20
JAX  73  93  73  93 /   0  30  10  30
SGJ  75  90  75  91 /   0  20  20  20
GNV  73  93  72  92 /  20  30  20  30
OCF  72  93  72  91 /  40  40  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Shashy/Shuler/McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
305 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-210730-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
305 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening.
Frequent lightning and an isolated damaging wind gust are the
main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected each day through
mid-week next week. Frequent lighting, heavy rainfall and
localized flooding are the primary hazards. A few storms could
produce strong wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
524 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

GAZ163-202215-
Clinch GA-
524 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM EDT...

At 524 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Fargo, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts
of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Fargo.

LAT...LON 3095 8260 3089 8249 3082 8250 3082 8243
      3073 8243 3061 8255 3065 8259 3066 8258
      3068 8259 3069 8258 3071 8261 3072 8265
      3082 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 312DEG 7KT 3084 8262

PETERSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
529 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

GAZ150-164-202215-
Ware GA-Charlton GA-
529 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WARE AND NORTHWESTERN
CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 528 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Boggy Bay, or 10 miles south of Waycross, moving
south at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts
of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Needham.

LAT...LON 3119 8248 3115 8229 3094 8233 3099 8254
      3099 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 010DEG 5KT 3108 8241

PETERSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
606 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

GAZ150-152-164-202245-
Ware GA-Brantley GA-Charlton GA-
606 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BRANTLEY...EAST
CENTRAL WARE AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 606 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Race Pond, or 10 miles northeast of Stephen Foster
State Park. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts
of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Race Pond.

LAT...LON 3086 8211 3084 8232 3104 8234 3105 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 174DEG 1KT 3093 8223

PETERSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
631 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

FLZ022-023-202315-
Columbia FL-Baker FL-
631 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BAKER AND
NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 631 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Taylor, or 17 miles northeast of Lake City. This
storm was nearly stationary.

Excessive cloud-to-ground lightning can be expected. Postpone outdoor
activities promptly. Go quickly inside a completely enclosed
building. Unplug electronic devices and appliances as they are
susceptible to power surges and may be damaged by nearby lightning
strikes.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Baker
and northeastern Columbia Counties.

LAT...LON 3045 8254 3050 8242 3031 8228 3025 8251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 334DEG 4KT 3038 8244

PETERSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
653 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

FLZ023-GAZ150-164-202345-
Baker FL-Ware GA-Charlton GA-
653 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BAKER...
SOUTHEASTERN WARE AND CENTRAL CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 653 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Taylor, or 18 miles south of Stephen Foster State
Park. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail, excessive cloud-to-ground lightning and wind gusts
of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor damage.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Baker...southeastern Ware and central Charlton Counties.

LAT...LON 3053 8227 3063 8227 3067 8220 3058 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 228DEG 1KT 3057 8222

PETERSON