Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
322 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.NEAR TERM (Rest of today-Thursday)...

Rest of today...expecting scattered to numerous showers and
storms focused mainly over northeast FL with more scattered or
even isolated storms over SE GA. Main threats will be locally
heavy rainfall and frequent to excessive lightning. Vigorous
updrafts and precip loading will allow for gusty winds that may
exceed 40-45 mph in the strongest storms that develop from
boundary interactions.

Tonight...Scattered showers/stratiform rains and thunderstorms
expected in the evening with sea breezes and left over outflow
boundaries triggering convection. This convection will then
fade/dissipate after midnight. Like prior nights...low stratus and
patchy dense fog will probably form...with locations where this
occurs highly uncertain due to model disagreement and lack of a
focus other than local areas of heavy rainfall. Fairly typical low
temps for June in the lower 70s.

Thursday...mean layer ridge will edge a bit southeast to south
during the day as a mid to upper level shortwave trough drops
slowly southeastward over SE GA and the FL big bend. Moisture
levels remain about the same as today with PWATS of about 1.8 to
2.1 inches. Modified sounding yields SBCAPE of about 3000 J/kg,
which may be a little conservative. Slightly drier air in the mid
levels may support a higher risk of localized strong downdrafts/gusty
winds. Based on latest model support...will continue with sct to
numerous showers and storms...mainly focused over NE FL. Initial
development around 10am-1pm appears to be over the east and
southeast zones ahead of the upper trough and the east coast sea
breeze boundary. Convection should focus inland during the late
aftn. Unfortunately with more insolation we are anticipating high
temps to be pushing higher than the past few days with lower 90s
more common...slightly lower at the coast. Max heat indices of
about 100 are expected.

.SHORT TERM /Thursday night-Friday night/...
A baggy upper level short-wave trof will move into the SE US Thursday
night and drift then linger over the region Friday. At the
surface, the ridge axis will drift south into central Florida
Friday. Thursday night, convection will wane considerably with the
loss of daytime heating with isold showers and thunderstorms west
of 301 and isold to scattered east of highway 301. lows Thursday
night with lows mainly in the 70 to 75 degree range. On Friday,
plenty of tropical moisture and minimal suppression should allow
convection to fire up once again. Precipitable water values will
be between 1.90 and 2". Convection may get an early start across
north central Florida Friday, focusing initially along Flagler and
southern St. Johns county late morning then pushing north and
west across the souther tier interior counties during the
afternoon. Across SE GA, a weakly cyclonic flow regime will be in
place with SW flow advecting a couple weak disturbances through
with isold to scattered convection getting going first across the
interior western areas late morning then drifting eastward during
the afternoon with coverage being scattered to numerous. The
convection across NE FL will be mainly diurnally driven, but may
see scattered convection through mid to late evening over the NE
FL First Coast counties with blow-back from weak westerly steering
flow. Primary threats Friday will be frequent CG lightning, wind
gusts 30 to 40 mph, and locally heavy rain with weak steering
flow. High temps Friday will be mostly in the upper 80s. Lows
Friday night mainly in the 70 to 75 degree range.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday-Tuesday/...

Not a lot of change this weekend as long range models continue to
indicate the deep layer sub-tropical ridge will be near or just
south of the while a weak trough persists across the Fl panhandle
into Ga. This will continue to produce a moist and unstable
southerly flow which will lead to mainly diurnal showers and
storms. Temps will average slightly above normal this weekend.

Monday and Tuesday...A strong shortwave will eject out of the
Great Lakes into Ontario/Quebec Monday. This will push a cold
front into northern Georgia and northern Alabama Monday and
lingering there through Tuesday. An anticyclonic flow around the
Bermuda High will continue to push ample tropical moisture into
the region. This will continue to produce a moist and unstable
S-SE flow through Tuesday which will lead to mainly scattered
diurnal showers and storms east of I-95...with showers and storms
more numerous west of I-95. Still have ECMWF/GFS agreement on a
tropical wave developing off the Yucatan next week and moving into
the west-central or western Gulf. Temps will average slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
For most part VFR CIGS expected outside scattered afternoon/evening
storms with MVFR to IFR VSBY and CIGS possible in and near
storms. By late evening and around midnight...will keep VFR but
some lower conditions possible in fog and stratus between 08z-14z
mainly for GNV and VQQ but confidence is low at this time. Another
round of scattered showers and storms Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...Sfc ridge will remain east and southeast of the area
waters maintaining south to southwest flow through Friday except
for east coast sea breeze each day. Slightly stronger southerly
flow Thu night and Fri night as sfc trough develops inland over SE
GA...increasing local pressure gradient. During the weekend, sfc
ridge lifts a little northward with speeds still aob 15 kt. Winds
may begin to turn a little more south-southeasterly Sunday
through early next week as tropical wave moves through the
eastern Gulf/Yucatan.

Rip Currents: Low to moderate risk through Thursday due to weak
easterly swells.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  73  90 /  30  30  30  50
SSI  75  86  76  86 /  30  40  30  40
JAX  72  91  73  88 /  30  50  30  50
SGJ  72  86  73  86 /  30  50  20  40
GNV  70  90  71  88 /  30  60  20  60
OCF  71  90  72  88 /  40  50  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Shashy/Cordero/Corless

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1045 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-150730-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
1045 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017

...Locally Heavy Rainfall from Slow Moving Thunderstorms...
...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents Today...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Slow moving thunderstorms will again cause locally heavy rainfall
this afternoon and early evening, with 2 to 4 inch accumulations
possible. A few storms may become strong as well with gusty winds
and frequent lightning.

There is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at area beaches today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected through the period. The main thunderstorm hazards
continue to be locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

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