Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
318 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

.NEAR TERM /Through Thursday/...
Showers continue to build southwestward from the nearshore Atlantic
waters into the coastal areas of southeast Georgia from near High
Point northward. Storms will continue to back-build as they move
off to the northeast as the east coast sea breeze tries to move
slowly inland, and locally heavy rainfall is possible along the
coast. Other scattered showers and storms were located west of
Valdosta, moving to the east towards the region. Additional
convection was also firing in the southeastern portion of the
region, closer to the shortwave. The shortwave was moving across
north central Florida this afternoon, and will move off the coast
over the next couple hours. Guidance is indicating subsidence for
inland northeast Florida, with dry conditions expected to prevail
from I-75 westward, and isolated to low end scattered convection
west of Highway 301. Most of the convection may stay along and
east of the St. Johns River in northeast Florida, with scattered
to numerous storms possible across southeast Georgia. Downbursts,
hail, and heavy rainfall will remain a concern through the
afternoon and into the evening. Convection will wind down in the
late evening, with only a few leftover showers remaining by 06Z.
Upper level cloudiness is forecast to remain overnight, and lows
will be warm in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Weak cyclonic flow aloft will continue through Thursday, with
another shortwave forecast to move across the region Thursday
afternoon. The surface ridge axis is forecast to nudge slightly
northward on Thursday, into the southern portion of the region,
with light winds prevailing. The sea breeze boundaries will move
inland in the afternoon, with convection forecast to focus along
Highway 301 in the mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show
the dry air aloft mixing out, with low level dry air prevailing.
Upper level cloudiness and the low level dry air will likely lead
to a later start to convection, and lower instability should lead
to more garden variety convection, with isolated strong storms.
Highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Thursday night through Saturday night...Diurnally driven convection
is expected to continue on Friday and Saturday. A moist unstable
airmass with PWATs around 1.75" and a light westerly steering flow
will produce scattered to numerous showers and storms. Seabreezes
will move inland with best coverage of storms expected to be over
inland areas. A slow storm motion will result in locally heavy
rainfall.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...A near zonal flow aloft on
Sunday will increase from the sw as an upper trough amplifys over
the eastern U.S. early next week. Moist unstable air will result
in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly during
the afternoon/evening hours. Storms will likely increase in
coverage and strength Tuesday and Wednesday as shear and lift
increase with upper trough and surface cold front moving into the
area. Temperatures will be near average with rain chances at or
above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
East coast sea breeze moving slowly inland this afternoon. Showers
and storms continued to build southwest from convection over the
Atlantic, and was near KSSI. Convection may keep close to the
coast this afternoon into the early evening, so just kept VCTS at
the coastal TAF sites for now. Light winds are expected overnight
through the end of the TAF period. Storms are not forecast to
redevelop until after the end of the TAF period.

.MARINE...
Winds will become south to southwesterly at 10-15 kt tonight and
then become west by 12z Thu. An east coast sea breeze will then
develop in the afternoon, with winds turning east nearshore around
10 knots. Seas will be 1-3 feet. A similar pattern is expected to
persist through the weekend. Main hazards will be scattered
storms moving into the nearshore and offshore waters at times
which will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and frequent
lightning. No headlines expected at this time.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents through the end of the week.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  89  71  89 /  30  60  30  50
SSI  73  87  74  84 /  40  40  30  40
JAX  69  91  71  87 /  30  50  40  50
SGJ  72  88  72  84 /  40  40  40  50
GNV  70  92  70  88 /   0  50  30  70
OCF  70  92  71  87 /  10  50  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Kennedy/Zibura/Nelson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
450 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-010900-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
450 AM EDT Wed May 31 2017

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected. Isolated, briefly strong to severe thunderstorm will be
possible. The strongest storms will be capable of damaging wind
gusts in excess of 50 mph...hail...very heavy rainfall...and
frequent lightning. Greatest potential for storms will mainly be
between the Interstate 95 corridor and Highway 301.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each afternoon
and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed. However, if warnings are
issued, spotters are encouraged to activate in their area.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
418 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

FLZ024-025-124-125-312045-
Inland Duval FL-Inland Nassau FL-Coastal Duval FL-Coastal Nassau FL-
418 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL NASSAU AND
NORTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near St. Marys to near Oceanway. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along
with possible minor damage.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville International Arpt, Oceanway, Little Talbot Island and
Fort Caroline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3042 8173 3063 8167 3058 8139 3032 8135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 239DEG 18KT 3068 8158 3048 8166

ENYEDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
425 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

FLZ040-312100-
Marion FL-
425 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MARION COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

At 425 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Juniper Springs, moving east at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2905 8172 2922 8171 2922 8164 2905 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 257DEG 5KT 2914 8165

ZIBURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
436 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 ENE JACKSONVILLE INTE 30.50N 81.62W
05/31/2017  E65 MPH          DUVAL              FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEEE IN OCEANWAY REPORTS 60 TO 65 MPH
            WIND GUSTS.

&&

NELSON