Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
301 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017

...Scattered Strong/Isolated Severe Storms This Afternoon/Tonight...
...Breezy/Windy and Cooler/Drier Conditions Friday into Saturday...

.NEAR TERM /Tonight-Friday/...

Rest of this afternoon/evening...First round of storms has main
slow moving line of of storms across inland SE GA and the Suwannee
River Valley that contain strong to isolated Severe storms with
some rotation that have triggered Tornado/Severe Storm Warnings
that are tracking to the NE, then out ahead of this a Scattered
line of storms has formed from Brunswick to Jacksonville to
Gainesville that will track off towards the NE and will likely be
the one to interact with the sea breeze late this afternoon and
evening to create some more strong/isolated severe storms with
gusty winds along the I-95 corridor.

After sunset tonight...Still expect a lull in activity with just
widely scattered showers/storms in warm sector ahead of cold
front. Hi-Rest models still showing cold frontal passage taking
place from West to East from after midnight through sunrise off
the Atlc Coast and the best chances for scattered/numerous storms
along this boundary will be across NE FL and coastal SE GA and
still a few storms may be strong with gusty winds but overall
severe threat lesser than what is going on during daytime heating
this afternoon/evening. Breezy South winds at 15-20G30 mph will
continue through the night ahead of the cold front with gusts of
30-40 mph expected with the frontal passage late tonight. Lows
will generally fall into the upper 50s/lower 60s behind the
frontal passage.

Friday...Large Mid/Upper level Low will drop into the TN Valley
and push cold front well offshore and allow for strong increase
in W/SW winds to 15-25G35 mph at times, likely just below Wind
Advisory levels. Partial clearing will occur across NE FL while
wraparound clouds from the Low pressure system over the Mid Atlc
States will keep portions of SE GA mostly cloudy. Highs there will
only rebound to around 70 degrees while the rest of region will
push into the mid/upper 70s, still below normal for Early May. A
few models are suggesting some of the wrap-around moisture may
contain a few showers...especially along the NE GOMEX coast that
may track into inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor but overall
rainfall chances less than 20%.

.SHORT TERM /Friday Night-Sunday/...

Fri Night...Strong Cold Air Advection for Early May along with
West Winds at 10-15 mph will make it feel rather cool with lows
falling to near 50 degrees inland despite the elevated winds and
partly cloudy skies.

Sat-Sun...Skies become mostly clear for the remainder of the
weekend and the cooler/drier NW flow will continue to support
below normal temps on Saturday with highs in the 70s and
rebounding to the 80-85 degree range on Sunday. Another cool night
expected Sat Night with lows in the lower 50s inland and mid/upper
50s near the coast.

.LONG TERM /Monday-Thursday/...

A broad area of sfc high pressure and dry and stable air expected
to dominate the region early in the week. Models do suggest a
dry/backdoor frontal moving into northern zones and then stalling
Monday into Tuesday with little sensible wx noted except for
possible wind shift to northeasterly on Tuesday and some increased
clouds. A broad mid/upper level ridge across the Gulf of Mexico
will shift eastward and high temperatures will rebound to normal
early in the week, and then above normal (lower 90s) from Wed-Thu.
A weak low pressure system may develop over south
Appalachians/Mid Atlantic area and move east-southeast offshore of
the Carolinas Wed-Wed night...with a trailing cold front
extending back to the west over S Carolina to TN. For most part,
conditions will be dry but could see slight increase in rain
chances Thursday based on model consensus as the frontal boundary
moves toward the region and moisture increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
Still expect breezy south winds and mainly VFR conds this
afternoon with TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS in Storm activity mainly
between 20-22z at the TAF sites, then lull with VCSH during the
evening hours before cold front pushes through with another round
of possible storms between 06-09z with gusty winds and MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS. Models still suggesting a solid MVFR deck around 2000
feet along and just behind the cold front for several hours from
09-14z, then conds should scatter out with daytime mixing and
drier air after 15z friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Rather lengthy period of strong winds expected over the coastal
waters and have extended Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore
waters into Friday Night and into Saturday for the offshore
waters. Still expect South winds 20-25 knots ahead of the cold
front today to become SW tonight, then offshore westerlies Friday
and Fri Night at 20-25 knots with a few gusts to gale force
possible with convection tonight and with the gradient winds
Friday and Friday Night but not expecting frequent gusts to
warrant a Gale Warning. Offshore flow weakens over the weekend
then veers to the North early next week but at well below headline
levels.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today becomes Low Risk on Friday as
flow becomes offshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much drier airmass to filter in Friday and into the weekend with
hazardous breezy West Winds at 15-20G30 mph along with near
critical RH levels around 30% will support elevated fire danger
conditions at the very least, especially in areas that do not
receive rainfall tonight. Red flag Warnings may be needed on
Saturday if RH levels fall below critical values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  69  50  76 /  50  10  10   0
SSI  63  75  57  76 /  50  10  10   0
JAX  61  78  53  78 /  50  10  10   0
SGJ  64  79  55  77 /  50  10   0   0
GNV  60  75  52  78 /  70  10  10   0
OCF  62  77  54  77 /  70  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for Waters from
     Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

Hess/Shashy/McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
445 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-050930-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
445 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017

...MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon
into early Friday morning as a strong cold front moves through
the area. A few strong to severe storms will be possible mainly
this afternoon into the early evening.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of the coastal
waters through tonight.

Smoke from the West Mimms Wildfire may lower visibilities for
a time during the day. Areas affected by dense smoke will be
Charlton...southern Ware...and southern Clinch.

There is a Moderate risk of rip currents at the beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Locations near wildfires may experience reduced visibilities from
areas of smoke mainly during the late night and early morning
hours.

A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the offshore waters
Friday night into a portion of Saturday as a secondary cold
front moves offshore.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

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