Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
438 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...

This afternoon through Sunday,

A slight severe weather risk will continue through late afternoon
ahead of the cold front which is roughly along the Natchez Trace
Parkway as of late afternoon. The main concerns with the broken line
of storms will continue to be for damaging winds/hail given veered
and marginal low level shear. While the severe weather potential
should end early this evening, other non-severe storms may develop
later in the evening when additional upstream shortwave energy
currently over the ArkLaTex region moves into the ArkLaMiss.
Otherwise, expect a cold advection pattern to set up over the
forecast area with widespread stratus and gusty northwest winds
helping to keep temperatures from climbing much out of the 50s
during the day Sunday, especially in northeast portions of the area
where low clouds should linger the most. /EC/

Sunday night through Friday,

Clouds will decrease from the west on Sunday night. Lows Sunday
night will be around 5 to 10 degrees below normal with lows in the
mid to upper 40s. High pressure will build into the region from
the west along with zonal flow aloft. High pressure will shift to
the east as low level return flow will bring the region a gradual
warming trend during the work week. Nightly lows will push back to
the upper 60s and lower 70s by Thursday night into Friday night.
Daily highs will push back into the middle to upper 80s. Rain
chances will also develop by Wednesday through Friday as several
fronts push into the forecast area from the west.

Looking ahead, a stronger system will push into the region over
the weekend with precipitable water over two inches. The ECMWF
and GFS try to hint at some heavy rain potential given the
amplified trough-to-ridge long wave pattern and anomalous
moisture helping to focus several mesoscale convective systems
over the forecast area. The global models emphasize the heavy
rain potential mainly across the delta region. There also looks
like some strong to severe storm potential given the strong wind
shear that should accompany this set-up. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
The primary concerns for aviation interests will be any +TSRA
along/ahead of the cold front pushing across the forecast area
this afternoon/early evening, followed by IFR category post-
frontal stratus for tonight into Sunday morning along with gusty
northwest surface winds. Expect ceilings to improve gradually
Sunday, reaching MVFR category at all sites after 15 UTC and
perhaps up to VFR category late Sunday. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       52  62  48  76 /  26   9   0   0
Meridian      55  63  49  77 /  40  14   0   0
Vicksburg     52  65  48  76 /  21   7   0   0
Hattiesburg   58  67  48  79 /  55  12   0   0
Natchez       53  64  47  76 /  32   6   0   0
Greenville    52  65  49  76 /  20   7   0   0
Greenwood     52  63  48  75 /  20   8   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
412 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-024-MSZ018-019-025>027-034-035-
040-041-232115-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-
412 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

LAZ025-026-MSZ028>033-036>039-042>063-232115-
Tensas-Concordia-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-
Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-
Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
412 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

A few severe storms will be possible through late this afternoon.
The main concern will be for wind gusts up to 60 mph and quarter
size hail. Expect storms to move east of the area early this
evening.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon.

MSZ064>066-072>074-232115-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
412 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon into early
evening

Thunderstorms will be possible through early evening, with one or
two storms perhaps becoming severe and capable of producing brief
wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
641 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW MADISON           32.47N 90.18W
04/22/2017                   MADISON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ALONG NORTH LIVINGSTON ROAD NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF LEWIS DRIVE.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
656 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE MERIDIAN           32.37N 88.69W
04/22/2017                   LAUDERDALE         MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET FLOODING ONGOING ON 5TH STREET IN
            FRONT OF METRO AMBULANCE.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
657 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 SE MARION            32.31N 88.56W
04/22/2017                   LAUDERDALE         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
            LAUDERDALE COUNTY.

&&

TW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
713 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2017

MSZ064-065-230100-
Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-
713 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Hebron, or 13 miles south of Pinola, moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Clem around 725 PM CDT.
  Lone Star around 730 PM CDT.
  Mount Olive around 740 PM CDT.
  Collins around 750 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3159 8997 3176 8997 3179 8949 3156 8949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 266DEG 30KT 3169 8991

JC