Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
512 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATER TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Today through tonight,

The first round of severe weather is winding down early this
morning as a coastal MCS anchored by split upper level jet shifts
east and gradually weakens. While this scenario was expected to
happen, it took place sooner than anticipated and helped to limit
severe weather occurrences with the exception of a couple of
significant tree damage reports. In addition, a fairly strong and
long-lived wake low event associated with the decaying northern
end of the MCS has been observed over north central MS resulting
in extensive coverage of 40 to 50 mph wind gusts.

We will see somewhat of a lull in the convective activity through
the morning with continued departure/decay of the current MCS.
During the early to mid afternoon, cyclonic flow aloft and strong
deep layer shear ahead of an approaching cold front will help to
destabilize the airmass (H500-H700 lapse rates > 7.5 C/km, ML CAPE
> 1500 j/kg) sufficiently to break through the cap and initiate a
broken line of storms. Per most CAM guidance, this should happen
along the I-55 corridor to the north of the I-20 corridor by
around 300 PM. Storms will intensify as they move east across
central/eastern MS in the general vicinity of today's enhanced
risk area from SPC. Overall, the time window for severe weather
potential is short and not expected to last much into the evening.
Primary threats will be for large hail and damaging wind gusts as
low level shear will not be all that favorable for tornadoes. /EC/

Friday through next Wednesday,

A quiet period of weather is expected across the forecast area
Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds into and through the
region. With no appreciable airmass change expected over the
forecast area behind Thursday night's frontal passage, warm
conditions will persist as highs Friday range from the middle 70s
to middle 80s, and top out in the low to mid 80s Saturday
afternoon. With some slightly drier air over the region, lows
Friday night will range from the low to middle 50s. Then with
clouds increasing from the west late, lows will range from the
middle 50s to middle 60s Saturday night.

Another period of active weather looks to setup across the forecast
area Sunday into Monday as another storm system is poised to affect
the region.  A closed mid/upper low will swing east northeast from
the Southern Plains into the Mid-South Region and Tennessee River
Valley Sunday through Monday night.  This will cause a surface low
to develop over East Texas Sunday afternoon, which will lift
northeast near or across the forecast area through Monday afternoon.
Deep moisture increasing over the forecast area and plenty of lift
associated with a couple of pieces of energy traversing the region,
will result in increasing chances for showers and storms as early as
Sunday morning, and continuing off and on through at least Monday
afternoon.

While there are some model discrepancies concerning the exact track
of this surface low in regard to the forecast area, it still appears
that there will be a window of time Sunday into Monday that at least
a portion of the CWA will see the potential for some severe weather.
This is supported by adequate instability and steep mid-level lapse
rates over the CWA, increasing deep wind shear, favorable jet
dynamics, and again the aforementioned strong forcing over the
region.  Given some model uncertainties, primarily the surface low
track, I'll maintain the ongoing "Slight Risk" per SPC along and
west of the Mississippi River in the HWO.

While this is still 4-5 days out, given overall current model
consensus, advertised jet positioning, and QPF signals over the
region, I wouldn't be surprised to see this risk for severe storms
perhaps shifted further south and east, encompassing more of my
southern zones as we approach the Sunday/Monday period.  In
addition, due to the deeply moist airmass that'll reside over the
CWA during this time, and multiple bouts of convection advertised to
traverse portions of the CWA, confidence continues to increase that
there will be some potential for heavy rain, that could result in
flooding, across portions of the region with this system.

Clouds and rain chances gradually exit the region Monday night into
Tuesday.  High pressure will again build into the region Tuesday.
However, as we move into Wednesday, another fast moving cold front
is advertised to bring more showers and storms to the region
Wednesday afternoon. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:

Expecting a good deal of MVFR flight cats around the region
(mainly due to ceiling reductions) late tonight through tomorrow
morning. Flight category reductions associated with heavy rain and
thunderstorms will be most pronounced over the next several hours
at JAN and HKS. Tomorrow the thunderstorm impact will be more
questionable and likely more brief. Confidence in impact is
highest in the midday through afternoon hours around CBM/GTR where
there is a decent chance of severe weather and hail. Elsewhere
severe weather cannot be ruled out for tomorrow. Active weather
should be moving out of all areas by tomorrow evening. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  53  82  53 /  61  30   0   0
Meridian      78  52  81  50 /  55  55   0   0
Vicksburg     76  52  83  53 /  40   6   0   0
Hattiesburg   78  53  85  54 /  67  37   0   0
Natchez       76  54  82  56 /  48   6   0   0
Greenville    73  51  78  53 /  32   5   0   0
Greenwood     75  51  78  52 /  57  18   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
420 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-035-040>042-
047-053-059-060-302130-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-
Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-
420 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and western Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced overnight, then marginal on Thursday
TIMING...Tonight through midday Thursday

Severe storms are expected to move in late tonight, especially
after 9 PM, lasting through around daybreak. Damaging wind gusts,
golfball size hail, and tornadoes will be possible with any
severe storm. A strong tornado will be possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

Strong to severe storms may redevelop late Thursday morning with
the severe weather threat ending during the afternoon.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts, hail to the
size of quarters, and a few tornadoes will again be possible late
Sunday into Monday. Heavy rainfall which may result in flooding is
possible during this time frame as well.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Thursday and Sunday through Sunday night.

MSZ027-032-036>038-043>045-050-302130-
Carroll-Choctaw-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Scott-
420 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight early Thursday morning, Enhanced Thursday
afternoon
TIMING...Early Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon

Severe storms are possible after 2 AM Thursday morning. Damaging
wind gusts, quarter size hail, and a few tornadoes will be
possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

Severe storms will redevelop around midday Thursday, with the
severe weather threat ending by late afternoon. Damaging winds,
quarter size hail, and tornadoes are expected.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall which may result in flooding is possible late
Sunday into Monday.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday
night and tonight through Thursday night.

MSZ026-028>030-033-302130-
Grenada-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Oktibbeha-
420 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Grenada area and the
Golden Triangle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight early Thursday morning, Moderate Thursday
afternoon
TIMING...Early Thursday morning through early Thursday evening

Severe storms are possible after 4 AM Thursday morning, mainly for
areas west of Eupora. Damaging wind gusts, quarter size hail, and
a few tornadoes will be possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

Severe storms will redevelop early Thursday afternoon, with a
greater potential for severe weather. Damaging winds, hail larger
than golf ball size, and tornadoes are expected. Strong tornadoes
are possible. The severe weather threat will diminish during the
early evening hours.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall which may result in flooding is possible late
Sunday into Monday.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday
night and tonight through Thursday night.

MSZ031-302130-
Lowndes-
420 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for Lowndes County, Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Thursday afternoon through early evening

Severe storms are expected to develop Thursday afternoon.
Damaging winds, hail larger than golf ball size, and tornadoes
are expected. Strong tornadoes are possible. The severe weather
threat will diminish during the early evening hours.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall which may result in flooding is possible late
Sunday into Monday.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday
night and Thursday through Thursday night.

MSZ039-046-051-052-302130-
Noxubee-Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-
420 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Thursday afternoon and evening

Severe storms are expected from Thursday afternoon through
Thursday evening. Damaging winds, quarter size hail, and
tornadoes are expected.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall which may result in flooding is possible late
Sunday into Monday.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday
night and Thursday through Thursday night.

MSZ048-054-061-062-302130-
Hinds-Copiah-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
420 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Early Thursday morning and again Thursday afternoon

Severe storms are possible after 2 AM Thursday morning. Damaging
wind gusts, quarter size hail, and a few tornadoes will be
possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

Severe storms will redevelop around midday Thursday, with the
severe weather threat ending by late afternoon. Damaging winds,
quarter size hail, and tornadoes are possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall which may result in flooding is possible late
Sunday into Monday.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday
night and tonight through Thursday.

MSZ049-055-056-063>065-072-302130-
Rankin-Simpson-Smith-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Marion-
420 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central and
southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Thursday afternoon and evening

Severe storms are possible after daybreak Thursday morning,
mainly for areas west of Columbia to Collins line. Damaging wind
gusts will be the main threat with these storms.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

Severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and evening.
Damaging winds, quarter size hail, and tornadoes are possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

Heavy rainfall which may result in flooding is possible late
Sunday into Monday.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday
night and tonight through Thursday.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W MADISON             32.46N 90.16W
03/30/2017                   MADISON            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ALONG LAKE CASTLE ROADS WITH
            POWER OUTAGES IN THE AREA.

&&

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
306 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W CRYSTAL SPRINGS     32.00N 90.43W
03/30/2017                   COPIAH             MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINSTONVILLE            33.91N 90.75W
03/29/2017                   BOLIVAR            MS   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON MEMORIAL DR AND NORTH BAYOU.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ESE GREENWOOD         33.50N 90.09W
03/30/2017  M55 MPH          CARROLL            MS   ASOS

            PEAK WIND FROM A WAKE LOW EVENT.

&&

CE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
416 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

MSZ026>030-032-033-036-037-301000-
Oktibbeha-Carroll-Attala-Grenada-Clay-Montgomery-Choctaw-Webster-
Holmes-
416 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 5AM...

Strong southeast winds will continue or develop across portions of
north central Mississippi. These winds will increase as the back
edge of the rain shield moves east. Some of this wind may persist up
to 30 minutes. Winds are expected to be out of the southeast with
speeds up to 40 or 50 mph. Such wind speeds will down large limbs
and some trees.

LAT...LON 3376 8951 3372 8951 3372 8919 3374 8919
      3374 8916 3372 8890 3337 8896 3329 8908
      3328 8911 3326 8911 3301 8946 3304 9000
      3378 8974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0914Z 240DEG 48KT 3345 8953

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
514 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

MSZ064>066-072-073-301100-
Jones MS-Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-Lamar MS-Marion MS-
514 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MARION...SOUTHEASTERN
COVINGTON...LAMAR...SOUTHWESTERN JONES AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON
DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

At 513 AM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Pinebur, or 8 miles northeast of Sandy Hook, moving northeast at
40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3142 8975 3162 8933 3143 8933 3143 8945
      3135 8945 3134 8935 3101 8935 3100 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 1013Z 237DEG 33KT 3115 8974

JM