Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
355 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Tomorrow:

As a cold front continues working southeastward through the forecast
area this afternoon, some thunderstorms along the front have become
strong to severe. The storm threat will continue to diminish from
west to east through the rest of this afternoon as the front clears
the Interstate 59 corridor by about 6 to 7 PM. Gusty winds will drop
off shortly after sunset. A noticeably cooler night is then on order
for tonight behind the cold front. Some locations may be as much as
20 to 30 degrees cooler than last night. Max temperatures tomorrow
afternoon will also be cooler as the area warms to near seasonal
normals under mostly sunny skies and the influence of a surface
high. /NF/

Thursday night through Tuesday:

It will be cooler than normal and dry through Saturday, followed
by warmer than normal with a chance for rain Sunday through
Tuesday. Thursday evening wl still be under northwest flow aloft
while the 1030mb high centered over the Red River region shifts a
little east before being replaced by a stronger surface high from
the north. This stronger 1040mb high will become centered over
west Tennessee by noon Friday before shifting east to the southern
Appalachians by Saturday morning. This will result in two cold
mornings across the ArkLaMiss where frost and freezing
temperatures will be possible for much of our northeast. Guidance
is in agreement and has come in colder for Saturday morning which
will be the coldest morning of the forecast period. Our dry cool
dry airmass will feature PWATs less than a quarter of an inch into
Saturday. With the surface high centered over coastal Carolinas
Sunday weak return flow will slowly work to increase PWATs back to
one inch by Sunday evening. Afternoon maximum temperatures will
be closer to normal Sunday and help set off a few showers over the
west. Mid level ridging will increase over our CWA Monday but a
weak disturbance in the Gulf combined with low level southerly
flow wl maintain a chance of rain across the region Monday. The
GFS is much more amplified than the ECMWF and Canadian with a
system that will move over our CWA Tuesday. If the GFS verifies
then strong to severe storms will be possible but consensus
suggests that rain chances will increase at least Tuesday
followed by cooler and drier weather Wednesday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Scattered to broken clouds around 3500 ft to start the period
at most TAF sites. A cold front sweeping southeastward will bring
a period of thunderstorms to each TAF site as it passes, with a
quick change to gusty northwest winds and briefly lower ceilings
and/visibility. Clouds should clear quickly behind the front, with
VFR conditions and northerly winds below 10 kts expected at all
TAF sites by 01Z Thursday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       43  62  36  65 /   1   0   0   0
Meridian      43  61  33  64 /  18   1   0   0
Vicksburg     42  62  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   47  64  38  67 /  33   3   0   0
Natchez       44  61  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    38  60  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     39  60  33  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

06/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
138 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-034>037-
040>042-047-021945-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Washington-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-
138 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Tuesday.

MSZ030>033-038-039-043>046-048>066-072>074-021945-
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-
Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
138 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through the rest of this afternoon

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through the rest of this
afternoon as a cold front moves southeast across the forecast
area. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to quarter
size will be the main threats, but a tornado cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today.

NF

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
Extreme...Confident in severe thunderstorms with wind gusts of
 75 mph or greater and/or 2 inch diameter or larger hail.
Significant...Severe thunderstorms possible with wind gusts of
 75 mph or greater and/or 2 inch diameter or larger hail.
Elevated...Confident in severe thunderstorms with winds gusts of
 60 mph or greater and/or 1 inch diameter or larger hail.
Limited...Severe thunderstorms possible with wind gusts of 60
 mph or greater and/or 1 inch diameter or larger hail.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
346 PM CST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     HAIL             4 NNE STAR              32.14N 90.02W
03/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            MCLAURIN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

HEFFERAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
347 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

MSZ046-052-012215-
Kemper MS-Lauderdale MS-
347 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN KEMPER AND
NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CST...

At 347 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Daleville, or near Meridian Station, moving east at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Meridian Station around 350 PM CST.
  Lauderdale and Tamola around 400 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for east central
Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3243 8841 3249 8879 3267 8876 3266 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 276DEG 42KT 3258 8869

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
355 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

MSZ062-063-012230-
Lawrence MS-Lincoln MS-
355 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL
LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CST...

At 355 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Wesson, or 8 miles northeast of Brookhaven, moving east at 50
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sontag around 405 PM CST.
  Monticello and Wanilla around 410 PM CST.
  Arm around 420 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Silver Creek.

LAT...LON 3156 9039 3169 9040 3169 9038 3170 9038
      3170 9027 3171 9000 3147 8999
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 274DEG 42KT 3163 9032

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
402 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

MSZ057-058-012230-
Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
402 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JASPER AND
NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CST...

At 402 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Paulding, or 15 miles south of Newton, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Paulding around 405 PM CST.
  Rose Hill around 410 PM CST.
  Orange and Barnett around 415 PM CST.
  Stonewall around 425 PM CST.
  Quitman around 430 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Pachuta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3201 8917 3221 8910 3222 8870 3193 8873
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 274DEG 42KT 3210 8909

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 PM CST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     HAIL             SEBASTOPOL              32.57N 89.33W
03/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              MS   PUBLIC

            LASTED FOR SEVERAL MINUTES. REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
421 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

MSZ064-012245-
Jefferson Davis MS-
421 PM CST WED MAR 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS
COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CST...

At 420 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Hebron, or 15 miles south of Pinola, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Prentiss around 430 PM CST.
  Clem around 440 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 8998 3176 8997 3177 8986 3177 8976
      3162 8976 3161 8975 3161 8974 3157 8969
      3154 8968
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 264DEG 33KT 3165 8999

17