Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
418 AM CST Mon Jan 2 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tonight

Latest vapor imagery showed the intense shortwave trough, which will
develop our severe weather for today, over the Southern Plains.
Meanwhile, areas of dense fog continued over the advisory area. This
was ahead of an advancing warm front from the south with 60s
dewpoints in its wake. Some locations in the southern and eastern
part of the advisory area have already been affected by rain and seen
the warm front passage, thus were removed from the advisory for the
rest of the morning. Some fog will be possible but think that the
prevalence of dense fog is a lower chance. Overall the fog should
lift by 8 am. Also area radars were already showing showers and
isolated strong elevated thunderstorms coming from Southern
Louisiana. This activity was developing in advance of a stronger low
level jet.

Otherwise the main focus will be the severe potential for this
afternoon into early this evening. Models have been consistent with
the track of this short wave in recent model runs. This fast
progressive pattern will bring the negatively tilted shortwave
trough to the forecast area by 00z today. The warm front will make
better progressive north across Mississippi for today which will
spread an unstable airmass across the region with middle 60s
dewpoints. However with some morning showers and embedded
thunderstorms pushing into our western and central areas this
morning ahead of the severe convection for this afternoon, this may
hamper airmass recovery some for this afternoon. This concern was
shown by one of the short range models, while the NAM, GFS, and
other short range models showed good recovery for this afternoon.
However with the strong dynamics of this system will assume that
there will be enough recovery for severe thunderstorms to take place.
As the system approaches, the warm front will make greater northward
progress over our forecast area, which will bring in some good
instability from the south. This shortwave will be preceded by a
surface wave on a pacific type front coming from the west. Looking at
some of the dynamics, we will be in the left front quad of the upper
jet as the low level jet increases across the region, midlevel
southwest jet of 70 knots, and midlevel lapse rates 7C. The 0-3 km
bulk shear will be around 30-50 knots in southwest flow, which will
be favorable for severe weather as discrete supercells comes ahead of
the broken QLCS line. Could get some tornadoes with the discrete
supercells. The general timing looks to be for this afternoon into
early this evening for the squall line to push through the region.
Will continue to highlight damaging winds, large hail and possible
tornadoes in an elevated risk in the HWO but push back the current
timing of the severe weather a little. Since the Pine Belt area has
received several inches of rainfall in the last few days will
continue to highlight the limited flash flooding potential there with
an additional 2 to 3 inches of rainfall possible. Our bout of severe
weather should exit the region with the front early this evening. The
rains will end from west to east in the wake of the departing
shortwave overnight as the front exits the region.

As far as temps are concerned, anomalous low level warming will help
to keep highs and lows around 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Readings
will range from the spring like lower to middle 70s. Lows will be
from the lower to upper 50s. As for POPs, will keep the current high
POPs for today across the CWA. The best POPs for tonight will be
across our northeast for early this evening as the rains depart
overnight./17/

Tuesday through the weekend...

By Tuesday morning, the upper level system will be to our east and
cold high pressure at the surface will be dropping south into our
region. The cold air will lag just a bit on Tuesday as highs should
still warm nicely into the 70s. However, cold advection will be in
full force once that 1037mb high starts to have some affect on our
region following a weak cold frontal passage late Tuesday into early
Wednesday. However, models do indicate that this surface high won't
completely reach our CWA but should affect the northern portions and
it is in this location where the colder highs should be on
Wednesday. Dry weather will continue through the week but much
colder temperatures will prevail as highs will be in the 40s across
the north to the lower 50s in the south. Overnight lows will again
dip below freezing north of I-20 on Thursday morning and areawide on
Friday morning. In fact, some locations in the north could see lows
Friday morning in the lower to mid 20s.

Heading into the weekend, there remains disagreement among the
operational models as to our next chance for precipitation. The
Canadian and ECMWF appear to be the most in sync with bringing
moisture and precip back to the region from the west later in the
day on Friday. As a disturbance moves to our south, moisture will
remain across our region going into Friday night. This will combine
with cold temperatures already in place to bring the threat for some
wintry precipitation. At this time, it looks like there is some
potential for a rain/snow mix or just some snow, especially for
locations along and north of I-20. The operational GFS is most
different with this system as it develops more of a trough and sfc
low moving across Arkansas, and keeping temperatures on the warm
side. This would lead to strictly a rain scenario. All models do
indicate any precipitation that does develop will exit the region by
Saturday afternoon/night with temperatures continuing to feel like
winter. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
Currently getting some reports of dense fog in the advisory area
including KGLH and KGTR. Fog could be dense at times with mainly
LIFR conditions across GLH/GWO/CBM/GTR. Further south sites will have
less periods of LIFR, although that will still be possible overnight
into tomorrow morning. Showers and storms have moved into the region
from the southwest and continue to move north/northeast. These could
affect I-20 TAF sites within the next hour or two and TAF sites
further north before daybreak. Expect some minor improvements by
late morning through midday with more locations at least getting to
MVFR. However, intense thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon
through early evening in all areas and this will, of course, be an
additional aviation hazard./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  57  70  46 /  97  46   7   7
Meridian      73  59  71  49 /  98  57   8   5
Vicksburg     75  54  71  46 /  99  35   3   8
Hattiesburg   75  58  73  51 /  98  36   5   4
Natchez       74  54  72  48 /  99  26   2   7
Greenville    70  54  68  41 /  99  53   6  10
Greenwood     73  56  68  42 /  98  64   9  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ018-019-
     025>042.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for LAZ007>009.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ARZ074-075.

&&

17/28

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
712 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>042-044-030115-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-LEAKE-
712 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

FOG
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE AT
TIMES TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO IMPROVE BY 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE2.GIF)

SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TORNADOES...AND HAIL
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY.

LAZ023>025-MSZ043-045>052-030115-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-MADISON MS-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
712 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

FOG
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
QUARTER MILE AT TIMES TONIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO IMPROVE BEFORE 8 AM
TOMORROW MORNING.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE2.GIF)

SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TORNADOES...AND HAIL
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY.

LAZ026-MSZ053>056-059-060-030115-
CONCORDIA-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
712 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TORNADOES...AND HAIL
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY.

MSZ057-058-061>066-072>074-030115-
JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
712 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MONDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...MONDAY

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF TWO TO THREE INCHES IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME OVER WET SOILS FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING AGAIN MONDAY.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE3.GIF)

SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...TORNADOES...AND HAIL
IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FOG*
EXTREME...WIDESPREAD FOG WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO.
SIGNIFICANT...FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 1/4
 MILE LIKELY.
ELEVATED...FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 1/4 MILE
 POSSIBLE.
LIMITED...PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 1/4
 MILE POSSIBLE.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE
LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE

LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/ONLINE/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE_HEAVYRAIN

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IMAGES...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/PRECIPMAPS

LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LMRFC/
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK/INDEX.HTML
DAY 1 THROUGH 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFERD.HTML
DAY 1 THROUGH 7 QPF...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
QPF DISCUSSION...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFPFD.HTML
   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
405 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

LAZ016-MSZ040-047-048-021030-
Madison LA-Issaquena MS-Warren MS-Hinds MS-
405 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MADISON PARISH...
CENTRAL WARREN...NORTHWESTERN HINDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL ISSAQUENA
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CST...

At 405 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Newman to 9 miles northwest of Le
Tourneau. Movement was north at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Bovina around 410 AM CST.
  Edwards and Flowers around 415 AM CST.
  Youngton, Eagle Bend and Oak Ridge around 425 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Mound and Delta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3247 9046 3257 9100 3228 9108 3222 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1005Z 201DEG 32KT 3228 9066 3232 9105

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
428 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

MSZ040>042-047-021100-
Sharkey MS-Issaquena MS-Warren MS-Yazoo MS-
428 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN YAZOO...
NORTHEASTERN WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN SHARKEY AND EAST CENTRAL ISSAQUENA
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CST...

At 428 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Oak Ridge, or 9 miles northeast of Redwood, moving northeast at
40 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Phoenix around 435 AM CST.
  Tinsley around 455 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Satartia and Bentonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3286 9067 3265 9031 3261 9034 3261 9035
      3258 9040 3259 9043 3258 9045 3256 9045
      3252 9050 3252 9052 3250 9052 3251 9055
      3250 9059 3248 9061 3246 9060 3244 9064
      3256 9081
TIME...MOT...LOC 1028Z 219DEG 34KT 3256 9067

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
433 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

MSZ048>050-021100-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-Scott MS-
433 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RANKIN...CENTRAL SCOTT AND EAST
CENTRAL HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM CST...

At 433 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from 6 miles north of Johns to Richland.
Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Pelahatchie around 440 AM CST.
  Morton around 450 AM CST.
  Fannin and Branch around 455 AM CST.
  Forest, Goshen Springs, Pisgah, Forkville and Hillsboro around 500
  AM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3217 8980 3219 9029 3249 9000 3254 8991
      3251 8932 3248 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1033Z 227DEG 37KT 3222 8983 3223 9016

17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
447 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

MSZ035-042-021115-
Humphreys MS-Yazoo MS-
447 AM CST MON JAN 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL YAZOO AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HUMPHREYS COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CST...

At 447 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Tinsley, or 12 miles southwest of Yazoo City, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Tinsley and Little Yazoo around 455 AM CST.
  Yazoo City around 510 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Satartia and Bentonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3259 9047 3275 9066 3300 9052 3272 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1047Z 220DEG 32KT 3271 9052

17