Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1225 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion: Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions were being
observed at 18Z. Poor aviation weather will continue tonight into
Monday morning with widespread LIFR/IFR ceilings and visibility due
to rain/fog. Some TSRA is possible as well mainly over the southeast
half of the area. Cigs and vsbys wl improve by 18Z but a line of
strong/severe TSRAs wl move across the area during the aftn. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Some patchy fog remains over the northwest but visibilities have
improved and the Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire at 10am.
Visibilities will continue to improve over the next hour or two but
the clouds will linger. Rain chances will return to the northwest
this afternoon and continue elsewhere. /22/

Prior discussion: Morning surface analysis had a low centered over
our CWA. Some areas of dense fog continued northwest of the low but
concern has shifted to our southeast where flash flood potential
today has increased. An anomalously moist airmass with PWATs in
excess of an inch and a half resides over our southern zones. The
presence of the cold front across our southwest from the surface low
combined with daytime heating and subtle shortwaves in the southwest
flow aloft, should lead to more vigorous convection today. Our
southeast received between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall yesterday and
an additional couple of inches in a short amount of time today could
lead to flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for our
southeast zones. /22/

Prior discussion below:
Today through tonight, The primary concerns in the near term are
with dense fog and heavy rainfall. Relatively warm and moist air
continues to advect inland across the cool ground resulting in areas
of fog and patchy dense fog early this morning. The dense fog
advisory handles the current scenario pretty well. Expect fog to
possibly reform tonight, but winds and boundary layer mixing will be
greater, so the potential for dense fog is less.

Heavy rainfall of two to three inches fell south of the Hwy 84
corridor in south central MS during the past 24 hrs. With the
bulk of guidance indicating shower regeneration and continued
precipitable water ~ 1.5 inches over the soaked ground in this area,
am concerned about additional minor flooding and will maintain a
limited threat for flooding in the HWO graphic through tonight.
Otherwise, anomalous warmth will continue in the near term with
temperatures well above normal. /EC/

Monday through Saturday Night, An active weather pattern will be the
general rule for the period. During the period there severe weather
is expected to affect the area on Monday. And there is still a risk
of a light wintry mix to affect portions of the region during the
later part of the period.

Starting on Monday a negatively tilted shortwave will cross the
region during the afternoon and evening. This will occur with a
humid and unstable airmass in place. This will be ahead of an
approaching cold front. Our convective rain chances will be high
ahead of the wave. This feature will give some height falls, some
deep layer shear of 50-70 knots, 0-1/0-3km shear of 35-50 knots,
midlevel jet of near 70 knots as well as some decent lapse rates for
instability with capes over 1000 j/kg, which is favorable for all
severe weather modes. Looks like the best risk of severe weather
will be north of a Quitman to Natchez line...where the best forcing
and instability will take place.

Model soundings shows some strong low level hodographs for some
tornadic potential. So with this in mind will introduce an elevated
risk along that line with a limited risk to the south. Will enhance
the elevated wording in the HWO. Will keep the same risk of damaging
winds, hail and some tornadoes. Some of the convective short term
models showed a bowing QLCS coming through the CWA with some discrete
cells ahead of it that will have some tornadic potential. While other
short term models showed a line of bowing segments coming across the
region. We will monitor the strong tornado potential with this system
but will leave it out of the HWO for now. SPC has put a enhanced risk
across most of the region for Monday. Our bout of severe weather
should last through early Monday evening.

The rains will exit the region by early Tuesday. Dry conditions will
come back on the wake of a cold front on Tuesday as well as another
cold front on Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This will bring
back more seasonable temperatures for the rest of the period. Our
next chance of rain will come back on Friday through the Saturday as
a series of shortwaves moves through the ArkLaMiss. For Wednesday
into the rest of the period the models are having diverging solutions
as has been the case in past runs. The operational GFS try to bring
some weak systems through on Wednesday through Thursday, while the
Euro tries to bring a stronger system for late Thursday into Thursday
night. Opted to go with the most of the GFS ensembles to keep it dry
through the period with the Superblend.

For Friday into Friday night the ensembles gives the region a chance
of rain which may become mixed with some light snow flurries for
Friday night into Saturday morning. The flurry potential was shown on
model soundings. So generally followed the blended solution with low
end pops for that period. The ensembles continue to show some rain
chances continuing for Saturday but ending by Saturday night. This
followed the blended solution as well. The GFS had low end pops for
Friday night only, while the Euro and its ensembles was dry for
Friday night through Saturday night. So with such disagreements among
the models will keep the HWO clear for the later part of the
period./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  74  56  70 /  65  86  36   6
Meridian      63  72  58  71 /  73  88  50   7
Vicksburg     62  74  54  70 /  62  82  28   4
Hattiesburg   65  74  58  72 /  74  87  38   6
Natchez       64  74  55  70 /  65  83  25   3
Greenville    57  71  53  67 /  60  83  33   5
Greenwood     60  73  55  68 /  59  87  44   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ063>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

17/22/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1101 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>057-059-060-
021715-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
1101 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A
FEW TORNADOES...AND HAIL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY.

MSZ058-061-062-021715-
CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
1101 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF SATURATED SOILS... COULD RESULT IN
FLASH FLOODING POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS LIMITED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH
TONIGHT.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE3.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A
FEW TORNADOES...AND HAIL IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING A CONTINUED LIMITED THREAT FOR
FLOODING IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY.

MSZ063>066-072>074-021715-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1101 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY REMAINDER OF TODAY

HEAVY RAIN OF UP TO 2-3 INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF SATURATED
SOILS...IS EXPECTED AND COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. THIS ELEVATED
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THE REST OF THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE3.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...A
FEW TORNADOES...AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. THE MAIN TIMEFRAME
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BRING A CONTINUED LIMITED THREAT FOR
FLOODING IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE
LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE_HEAVYRAIN

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IMAGES...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/PRECIPMAPS

LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LMRFC/
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK/INDEX.HTML
DAY 1 THROUGH 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFERD.HTML
DAY 1 THROUGH 7 QPF...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
QPF DISCUSSION...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFPFD.HTML
   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
102 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

MSZ072-073-011945-
Marion MS-Lamar MS-
102 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LAMAR AND SOUTHEASTERN MARION
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CST...

At 102 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Sandy Hook, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pinebur around 110 PM CST.
  Baxterville around 120 PM CST.
  Purvis and Pine Ridge around 140 PM CST.
  Oak Grove around 145 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8948 3100 8950 3101 8950 3101 8955
      3100 8955 3100 8983 3107 8984 3108 8987
      3112 8988 3141 8946 3139 8945 3135 8945
      3135 8942 3121 8934 3101 8935 3101 8942
      3099 8943 3099 8948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 250DEG 30KT 3107 8976

DC