Severe Thunderstorm Warning 363, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
355 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Sunday:

Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA in
the wake of a shortwave but daytime heating and our moist airmass
were contributing to scattered storms generally south of I-20 and
isolated storms north of I-20. The convection has knocked
temperatures down in spots but, heat index values above 105F were
being observed over much of our CWA with the exception of the
northeast where slightly drier air still resided. A distinct
diurnal trend is expected to the convection as it will dissipate
early this evening. Another warm and humid night is on tap.
Although a TUTT noted over the west central Gulf this afternoon is
progged to track west over the north central Gulf Sunday
afternoon, models strengthen the mid level ridge over the Gulf
coast states which is expected to further limit afternoon
convection to isolated coverage over our CWA. This will allow
temperatures to top out a degree or two warmer than today at most
locations. Highs in the mid 90s will combine with our very moist
airmass resulting in dangerous heat index values above 105F over
all except our northeast where peak heat index values will be near
105F. Will expand the current Heat Advisory east across the I-20
corridor excluding our northeast zones. /22/

Sunday Night through Saturday:

To start the new week, the TUTT low will continue sliding west
along the Gulf Coast, but mid-level ridging is forecast to remain
entrenched across the southeast CONUS. Therefore, the current
expectation is for convective activity to remain mostly suppressed
across our forecast area during the day on Monday. Have better
rain chances closer to the Gulf Coast, where a little deeper
moisture will be in place. With the possibility for some
noticeable loss in daytime heating as the solar eclipse occurs, it
is distinctly possible that typical afternoon convection could be
more limited than expected. Increasing upper-level moisture with
the approaching TUTT could push some high clouds into the region.
Have included a Limited Threat area for heat west of Interstate 55
on Monday, where heat index values could top out around 105
degrees.

Additional summertime showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Tuesday, however attention will quickly shift towards an
approaching cold front. The front should push south into our
region on Wednesday as a shortwave trough digs into the northeast
CONUS. There is a decent chance for rain areawide as the front
moves through Wednesday into Thursday. Drier and slightly cooler
weather will build in behind the front, however locations along
and south of the the Highway 84 corridor will likely hold onto a
little higher heat and humidity heading into the weekend. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Isold TSRA are expected north of I-20 this aftn while sct TSRA are
expected south. This activity wl dissipate around 20/01Z. Away
from TSRA activity, VFR conds wl prevail through Sunday. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  95  75  93 /  12  21  10  25
Meridian      75  95  74  93 /  10  22  10  25
Vicksburg     74  95  75  92 /  10  18  10  26
Hattiesburg   75  95  74  92 /  17  31  15  39
Natchez       75  94  74  91 /  17  27  15  35
Greenville    76  95  75  92 /   6  18  10  26
Greenwood     75  94  75  92 /   6  19  10  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019-025>028-
     034>037-040>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075.

&&

06/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034>037-
040>066-072>074-202015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
310 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Sunday

Temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected to combine with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s again Sunday. This will result
in heat index values ranging from 105-109 degrees from 11AM til
7PM. Exposure to these conditions will raise the likelihood of
heat related illnesses.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

Temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected to combine with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s to result in heat index values
ranging from 102-105 degrees mainly during the afternoon Monday.
This area is primarily west of Interstate 55. Prolonged exposure
to these conditions raise the likelihood of heat related
illnesses.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

MSZ029>033-038-039-202015-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-
310 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Sunday

Temperatures in the low to mid 90s are expected to combine with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s to result in heat index values
ranging from 102-105 degrees mainly during the afternoon again
Sunday. Prolonged exposure to these conditions raise the
likelihood of heat related illnesses.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Friday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
Extreme...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees for 3 or
 more days in a row and/or air temperatures greater than 107
 degrees.
Significant...Maximum heat index greater than 110 degrees
 and/or air temperatures greater than 105 degrees.
Elevated...Maximum heat index 105 to 110 degrees and/or air
 temperatures greater than 103 degrees.
Limited...Maximum heat index near 105 degrees and/or air
 temperatures 100 to 103 degrees.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
352 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017

MSZ073-074-192130-
Lamar MS-Forrest MS-
352 PM CDT SAT AUG 19 2017

...STRONG STORMS WILL AFFECT FORREST AND LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

At 352 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Sunrise to near Improve. Movement
was south at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Mclaurin around 425 PM CDT.
  Baxterville and Brooklyn around 430 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3096 8934 3100 8934 3101 8935 3101 8942
      3098 8943 3098 8947 3100 8948 3100 8950
      3101 8950 3101 8955 3100 8955 3100 8965
      3133 8965 3137 8915 3100 8915 3100 8914
      3098 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 354DEG 15KT 3131 8916 3128 8963

EC