Severe Thunderstorm Warning 344, NWS Jackson, MS

261 
WWUS54 KJAN 172304
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
604 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2017

MSC077-085-172315-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0344.000000T0000Z-170717T2315Z/
Lincoln MS-Lawrence MS-
604 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

At 604 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Brookhaven to East Lincoln, moving southwest at
10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

These severe storms will be near...
  Enterprise, Ruth and Bogue Chitto around 615 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9032 3145 9059 3163 9040 3153 9016
      3135 9017
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 054DEG 10KT 3154 9048 3147 9028 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

NF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
411 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Tuesday:

The daily pulse convection formed generally along the I-59 corridor
today with an isolated shower popping up here and there
throughout the rest of the CWA. This convection will dissipate
around sunset this evening and leave us with a quiet night. Skies
will clear and winds will go calm overnight. Around sunrise,
patchy fog and stratus will form, particularly in the south and
east where the majority of the rain fell today.

As the upper high pressure and ridging shifts eastward, the daily
convection axis will shift southward and become more focused along
and closer to the coast. Expect isolated showers and perhaps a storm
or two to form in the afternoon. Drier air along with warmer temps
will gradually build into the region from the northwest. Highs in
the low 90s tomorrow with dewpoints in the mid 70s will yield heat
indices near and even slightly above 100 tomorrow afternoon. /10/

Tuesday night through next Monday morning:

Hot and drier period is in store as anomalous ridging will move
through just to our north. Warmer highs in the mid-upper 90s and
increasing potential for dangerous heat are expected around mid-
late week.

Hot and dangerous heat look to be the story as we approach mid-
week. By Tuesday night & into Wednesday, the strong 595-596 DM
500mb ridge will be centered over the central Plains and into the
Arkansas & Missouri with large broad scale ridging into the
Rockies and western Rockies with zonal flow over top in the
northern Rockies & High Plains. This flow will have helped a
cutoff low develop along the eastern seaboard and become more
cutoff from the upper flow aloft. Our area will become more
influenced by the ridge building in on Wednesday. This will help
shunt most diurnal rain & storm chances to along & south of I-20.
Due to this, the heat looks to build in.

Dangerous heat can be expected beginning Wednesday and especially
centered on Thursday- Friday as center of the anomalous mid-
upper ridge moves over the mid-lower Mississippi Valley over
northern Mississippi into southern Tennessee. Thermal profiles,
with 850mb temperatures approaching 21 deg C, 925mb temperatures
around 23-25 deg C, and 90-97th percentile 700-500mb (595-597DM)
ridging, will promote efficient warming. Operational models &
ensemble MOS have continued the consensus for mid 90s (94-97
degrees) being likely, with some upper 90s (95-98 degrees) being
probable. Getting near to above the century mark look probably a
stretch at most but the previously mentioned CPC analog years
(1986, 1980, 1966, etc.) still promote the idea of very efficient
warming. With the recent rainfall, areas south of I-20 won't warm
as much as north. However, with dewpoints not mixing much at all
and lingering in the mid 70s, dangerous heat will be possible
areawide Wednesday through Saturday. Heat indices will climb each
day to near or above 105 degrees, with the hottest days around
Thursday- Friday as high temperatures get into the 95-98 degree
range, along & north of I-20 corridor. A heat advisory can be
expected as we get closer around Thursday-Friday. Introduced an
elevated threat for heat along & north of I-20 and left limited
threat south of I-20, with the most dangerous heat around that
Thursday- Friday timeframe. Heat stress, heat exhaustion and
related illnesses are possible. Drink plenty of fluids, stay cool
and take frequent breaks!

As the ridge slowly builds east by late weekend into early next
week (Sunday-Monday), expect the ridge to slowly break down,
especially as the cutoff TUTT low move westward under the southern
periphery of the ridge. This will help increase flow and moisture
advection by late weekend, which will bring PWs back up closer to
an inch and three quarters to near 2 inches. This will help
increase convection chances slowly into the weekend and by early
next week. Locally heavy downpours & some scattered stronger
storms can't be ruled out. Another large trough & cold front will
be propagating through the upper Mississippi Valley & into the
Great Lakes. There is some uncertainty on how deep this trough
will amplify and if much phasing occurs with the westward moving
TUTT low near our area & helps spark northwest flow. Regardless,
expect increasing convection chances, helping tamper down our heat
stress potential. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Scattered storms are expected through the afternoon, particularly
at HBG and MEI. Chances for showers elsewhere are slightly lower.
If under a shower or storm, conditions may deteriorate to IFR
categories briefly. Gusty winds up to 30 mph are possible within
these storms as well. Otherwise, surface winds will be light and
out of an easterly direction. Storms will dissipate with sunset.
Expect some patchy fog and low ceilings to form again tomorrow
morning. /10/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  92  74  93 /  17  32  13  22
Meridian      73  90  73  93 /  18  28   9  20
Vicksburg     73  92  74  93 /  12  27  10  20
Hattiesburg   72  89  73  92 /  29  41  20  36
Natchez       72  89  74  91 /  19  38  16  29
Greenville    73  93  74  93 /   8  12   4   9
Greenwood     73  92  75  94 /   8  13   3  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

10/DC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
258 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
182000-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
258 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Heat stress concerns will increase across the forecast area
Wednesday through Saturday as maximum temperatures rise into the
mid and upper 90s. High humidity will combine with these
temperatures to produce heat indices of 106-110 degrees along and
north of I-20; and near 105 degrees south of I-20 each afternoon.
Heat advisories appear likely as the event draws near.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
406 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2017

MSZ064-172130-
Jefferson Davis-
406 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTY...

At 406 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Carson, or 13
miles southwest of Collins, moving west at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prentiss, Progress, Carson and Bassfield.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3145 8996 3152 8996 3152 8998 3170 8997
      3164 8976 3161 8975 3161 8974 3157 8968
      3143 8969 3143 8980
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 097DEG 7KT 3156 8977

NF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
441 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2017

MSZ054-055-063-064-172230-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Copiah-Simpson-
441 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN SIMPSON...
LAWRENCE...EASTERN COPIAH AND WESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES...

At 440 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Harrisville to near Carson. Movement
was west at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  Harrisville around 505 PM CDT.
  Progress around 510 PM CDT.
  Union around 515 PM CDT.
  Arm, Oak Vale, Hopewell, Tilton and Robinwood around 530 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include New Hebron,
Georgetown and Silver Creek.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3171 9024 3200 9029 3200 8996 3144 8980
      3135 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 078DEG 7KT 3194 9001 3152 8986

NF