Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Jackson, MS

199 
WWUS54 KJAN 170226 RRA
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
926 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSC021-063-170300-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0321.000000T0000Z-170617T0300Z/
Claiborne MS-Jefferson MS-
926 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR CLAIBORNE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 926 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Blue Hill, or
27 miles northwest of Brookhaven, moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe storm will be near...
  Union Church around 935 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 9114 3163 9115 3163 9120 3167 9128
      3181 9126 3183 9124 3184 9126 3192 9118
      3195 9119 3198 9116 3201 9108 3203 9108
      3204 9110 3210 9104 3210 9096 3208 9095
      3208 9092 3212 9092 3215 9073 3161 9074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 000DEG 32KT 3177 9086 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CME

460 
WWUS54 KJAN 170243
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
943 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSC021-063-170300-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0321.000000T0000Z-170617T0300Z/
Claiborne MS-Jefferson MS-
943 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 943 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near New Hope, or 24
miles west of Brookhaven, moving south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fayette, Union Church, Stampley, Peyton, Red Lick, Mcnair,
Hermanville, Pattison, Lorman, Blue Hill and Mcbride.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3161 9114 3163 9115 3186 9109 3192 9103
      3199 9074 3161 9074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 010DEG 28KT 3162 9087 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

CME

744 
WWUS54 KJAN 170249
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
949 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

MSC021-063-170259-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0321.000000T0000Z-170617T0300Z/
Claiborne MS-Jefferson MS-
949 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE AND
JEFFERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3161 9114 3163 9115 3186 9109 3192 9103
      3199 9074 3161 9074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 000DEG 32KT 3156 9087 

$$

CME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
637 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
The threat for SHRA/TSRA will linger well into the night as extra
lift associated with a disturbance helps to maintain convection
beyond sunset and this will keep the threat for IFR category
ceilings/vsby relatively high at most sites. Outside of the
SHRA/TSRA, expect mainly VFR conditions with some potential for
early morning fog. Additional storms could redevelop for locations
mainly east of the GWO/JAN corridor Saturday afternoon. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Saturday:

Thunderstorms have been increasing in coverage over the northern
half of the forecast area over the past few hours as lift from the
combined MCV/disturbance aloft filters southeast into the Lower MS
Valley. The atmosphere across our region is very unstable with
surface-based CAPE values ranging from 3500 to 5000 j/kg currently
and some dry air aloft is helping enhance the threat for storms
producing gusty (and possibly damaging) winds from microbursts.
There is also a decent amount of deep layer wind shear in place (by
summer standards) and this aspect of the environment will likely
lead to one or two storm clusters aggregating within the next few
hours along and north of I-20, and then advancing more or less
southeastward into southern zones late this afternoon into the
evening. The going severe thunderstorm watch will be kept in place
through 9 pm in all areas at this juncture to cover the damaging
wind threat from storms. There will also be a more secondary risk
of hail. It is likely at least some portions of watch in northern
and western zones will be able to be dropped from the watch before
the official 9 pm expiration time.

There have recently been some signals showing up for late tonight
in high resolution model output suggesting convection could again
pop up along the lingering convergent boundary (which helped
trigger today's activity). This boundary should become oriented
more north to south (near I-55) late tonight and into tomorrow
and the question mark of whether or not much late night into early
Saturday convection will occur provides more than wanted
uncertainty for first half of the weekend. Initial thinking was
that the current upper pattern (susceptible to somewhat chaotic
thunderstorm clusters) would be breaking down after today but
subtle hints of energy aloft trying to cut-off just to our south
could possibly extend the unsettled window through Saturday. For
now we are going with 30 PoPs tomorrow along and east of the I-55
corridor and will watch closely for trends in observations and
near-term high resolution forecast models. As for impacts, it is
certainly not out of the question a few strong storms could be in
the cards for tomorrow (especially in the mentioned areas) but
there is far too much uncertainty, and a general expected
lessening of instability, to considering advertising a severe risk
in the HWO/graphics at this time. Otherwise, expect highs
generally ranging from 90 to 93 with plenty of humidity to
occasional peak heat index values up to the century mark in spots.
/BB/

Saturday night through Thursday night:

On Sunday the mid-level ridge will continue to strengthen over
the region. With plenty of moisture and decent lapse rates, expect
there to be at least some isolated to scattered convection on the
periphery of the ridge in the east Sunday afternoon. Once again a
strong storm or two looks possible.

On Monday into Tuesday, an upper trough will drag a cold front south
across the area. The models are not overly robust with the
convection with this system, as the models are struggling with the
potential for a tropical system in the golf. The models want to turn
the flow around to the North in advance of this potential low and
cut off the flow of moisture to the area. High pressure and much
drier air will build in for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the
upper 80s Tuesday and in the low 90s by Wednesday. By Thursday the
Global models diverge with the latest run of the ECMWF trying to
bring some remnant tropical moisture northward over the area, while
the GFS keeps the moisture to the south. Will lean towards the Drier
GFS solution and keep the area dry on Thursday and Thursday
night./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  91  74  91 /  71  26  14  13
Meridian      70  90  74  91 /  80  28  17  24
Vicksburg     74  92  74  91 /  52  23  12   9
Hattiesburg   71  90  72  91 /  48  26  16  27
Natchez       73  90  73  90 /  30  21  11  16
Greenville    74  91  75  91 /  80  20  10  10
Greenwood     71  91  75  90 /  80  23  12  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>046-172015-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through the remainder of this afternoon

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through the rest of the
afternoon north of the Interstate Twenty corridor. The main risk
with any severe storms will be damaging winds, although hail up to
the size of quarters cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047>066-072>074-172015-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
312 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon into this evening.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through evening along and
north of the Interstate Twenty corridor. The main risk with any
severe storms will be damaging winds, although hail up to the size
of quarters cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
839 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE FLOWOOD            32.31N 90.09W
06/16/2017  M51 MPH          RANKIN             MS   ASOS

            KJAN MEASURED 51 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
846 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLINTON                 32.34N 90.33W
06/16/2017                   HINDS              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN.

&&

BP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
848 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW COLLINSVILLE      32.52N 88.86W
06/16/2017                   LAUDERDALE         MS   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON WILDCAT RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
849 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRANDON                 32.28N 90.00W
06/16/2017                   RANKIN             MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN.

&&

BP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
854 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     YAZOO CITY              32.86N 90.41W
06/16/2017                   YAZOO              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS YAZOO COUNTY.

&&

BP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSW TAYLORSVILLE      31.74N 89.46W
06/16/2017                   COVINGTON          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED ON A HOME, PEOPLE TRAPPED
            INSIDE.

&&