Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Jackson, MS

963 
WWUS54 KJAN 211909
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
209 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2017

LAC123-211919-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0269.000000T0000Z-170521T1930Z/
West Carroll LA-
209 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WEST CARROLL
PARISH IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3290 9114 3281 9096 3266 9096 3266 9088
      3260 9084 3256 9096 3258 9096 3258 9104
      3256 9108 3253 9105 3252 9107 3255 9109
      3251 9111 3248 9126 3273 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 245DEG 16KT 3273 9126 

$$

LAC035-065-MSC055-211930-
/O.CON.KJAN.SV.W.0269.000000T0000Z-170521T1930Z/
East Carroll LA-Madison LA-Issaquena MS-
209 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL...NORTH CENTRAL MADISON PARISHES IN
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND WEST CENTRAL ISSAQUENA COUNTIES...

At 209 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Transylvania,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3290 9114 3281 9096 3266 9096 3266 9088
      3260 9084 3256 9096 3258 9096 3258 9104
      3256 9108 3253 9105 3252 9107 3255 9109
      3251 9111 3248 9126 3273 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 245DEG 16KT 3273 9126 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JM

611 
WWUS54 KJAN 211929
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
229 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2017

LAC035-065-MSC055-211937-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0269.000000T0000Z-170521T1930Z/
East Carroll LA-Madison LA-Issaquena MS-
229 PM CDT SUN MAY 21 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL...
NORTH CENTRAL MADISON PARISHES IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND WEST
CENTRAL ISSAQUENA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
other areas in Issaquena until 3 PM. 

LAT...LON 3290 9114 3281 9096 3266 9096 3266 9088
      3260 9084 3256 9096 3258 9096 3258 9104
      3256 9108 3253 9105 3252 9107 3255 9109
      3251 9111 3248 9126 3273 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 245DEG 16KT 3276 9118 

$$

JM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
105 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion: MVFR cigs were still being observed at the TAF
sites at 1730Z. These conds wl improve to VFR by 19Z. After 19Z VFR
conds wl prevail through this evng away from isold-sct TSRAs
which wl be psbl through 02Z Mon. IFR cigs are expected cntrl and
south by 12Z Mon while MVFR cigs wl be psbl across the north.
Lower flight conds wl cont through Monday evng as widespread TSRAs
are expected to develop across the area Mon and cont into the
evng. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...mid morning surface analysis had the cold front just
northwest of a Greenwood Mississippi to Winnsboro Louisiana line
with a 1022mb high centered over Oklahoma. This high will edge
east today and help push the weak cold front farther south across
our CWA. Our winds aloft remain west southwest so regional radars
still showed anafrontal storms across southern Arkansas that were
dissipating over portions of our delta region. Elsewhere, local
radar had dissipating showers across our southeast. Hi-res models
suggest very little convection in our area until the afternoon and
mainly along and ahead of the cold front. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible by late afternoon across our south with
damaging wind gusts being the main threat. PWATs are still around
an inch and three quarters so locally heavy rain will also be
possible. /22/

Prior discussion below:

Today through tonight: An anomalous upper low will become
anchored over the Great Lakes region in the near term, and this
will maintain active westerly flow aloft over the ArkLaMiss
region. While the synoptic pattern is fairly straight-forward, the
mesoscale influences will once again have much to say about
convective evolution. The convectively overturned and relatively
stable airmass over most of Central MS in the wake of yesterday's
MCC needs considerable modification before it can support much
deep convection.

Current scattered storms over Northeast LA into Southwest MS will
struggle to move into the more stable air farther east this
morning, but recent HRRR runs are suggesting that by mid/late
afternoon we will see enough airmass recovery to support storms
over southeast portions of the area as mixed layer CAPE
approaches/exceeds 2500 j/kg. For now, the latest analysis
reflect the effects of yesterday's convective event, and have
followed a more conservative POP approach for now. When storms do
develop, relatively weak deep and low level shear will limit the
potential for any organized severe storm threat, but expect
isolated severe storms due to the increasing instability.

For tonight, we could see convective precipitation increase as a
minor shortwave trough begins to act on what should be a more
favorable airmass with precipitable water. /EC/

Monday through Sunday:

The upper-level low pressure system will continue to spin over the
Great Lakes on Monday, and at least some portion of it will remain
over that region through most of the upcoming week. At the surface,
the remains of a cold frontal boundary will persist through Tuesday.
A few waves are expected to develop along this boundary and lift
northeastward through the Gulf Coastal states, bringing the
potential for heavy rain to at least the southern half of our
forecast area. The period to watch for the greatest heavy
rain/flooding potential currently looks to be between Monday
afternoon and Tuesday afternoon - especially for areas south of
Interstate 20. Forecast PWAT values ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches
across southeastern Mississippi and the possibility for a round or
two of heavy rain between Monday and Tuesday will warrant inclusion
of an Elevated Threat area there in our Hazardous Weather Outlook. A
Limited Threat for flooding will extend farther north and west to
around the Interstate 20 corridor.

A stronger cold front should push through the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday, this time with more upper level support to push
southward into the Gulf. Rebounding temperatures for the second half
of the week under shortwave ridging aloft and a more progressive
weather pattern. The next chance for rain may come by next weekend
if a cold front can dip this far south. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       82  65  76  60 /  50  37  58  67
Meridian      83  66  79  61 /  47  37  56  75
Vicksburg     84  65  74  60 /  42  29  57  56
Hattiesburg   84  69  79  63 /  54  31  80  90
Natchez       83  66  72  60 /  49  43  77  81
Greenville    81  62  76  61 /  50  10  16  28
Greenwood     81  61  77  59 /  29   8  16  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

NF/22/EC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
610 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>053-056>058-
221115-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-
Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-
Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
610 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Heavy rain could lead to localized flash flooding for southern
portions of the ArkLaMiss from Monday into Monday night,
especially in the area to the south of a line from Natchez to
Meridian.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Saturday.

LAZ024-026-MSZ054-055-059>066-072>074-221115-
Catahoula-Concordia-Copiah-Simpson-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-
Forrest-
610 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon and
continue into the evening. A few of the storms could be severe
and capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and
hail up to quarter size.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Heavy rain could lead to localized flash flooding for southern
portions of the ArkLaMiss from Monday into Monday night,
especially in the area to the south of a line from Natchez to
Meridian.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
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Latest Weather Briefing...
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...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/