Alert archive / Mississippi / River Flood Warnings in 2017
River Flood Warning 63, NWS Jackson, MS
NWS Jackson, MS issued this river flood warning at Dec 21, 2017, 10:59 AM CST for Sunflower County, Mississippi. It took effect at Dec 23, 2017, 2:00 AM CST. It was in force for 4 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 21, 2017, 10:59 AM CST (16:59 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 23, 2017, 2:00 AM CST
- Expired
- Dec 26, 2017, 7:19 PM CST
- In force
- 4 days
- Issued by
- NWS Jackson, MS
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Sunflower County, MS
The radar
The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 155 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Big Sunflower River at Sunflower (SUNM6). The gauge peaked at 21.59 ft at Dec 24, 2017, 9:00 PM CST.
- Action stage
- 20 ft
- Minor stage
- 21 ft
- Moderate stage
- 25 ft
- Major stage
- 28 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07288500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
105
WGUS44 KJAN 211659
FLWJAN
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1059 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017
...The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a Flood Warning
for the following rivers in Mississippi...
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. 48 hours of forecast rainfall is the Sunflowwer River
today.
Additional information is available at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan
The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.
&&
MSC133-222259-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FL.W.0063.171223T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T0800Z.171226T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1059 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017
The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a
* Flood Warning for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower
* from late Friday night until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Thursday the stage was 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage early Saturday
morning and will continue to rise to near 23.0 feet by Monday
evening.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Farm roads to catfish ponds become
inundated.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Field west of river begins to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Fri Sat Sun Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 18.0 Thu 10 AM 19.9 21.2 22.3 23.0 06 PM 12/25
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$11 follow-up statements
632
WGUS84 KJAN 220119
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
719 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.
The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.
&&
MSC133-230719-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0063.171223T0800Z-000000T0000Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T0800Z.171226T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
719 PM CST Thu Dec 21 2017
The Flood Warning continues for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower
* from late Friday night until further notice.
* At 6:00 PM Thursday the stage was 19.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage early Saturday
morning and will continue to rise to near 23.0 feet Monday
evening.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Farm roads to catfish ponds become
inundated.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Field west of river begins to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Fri Sat Sun Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 19.0 Thu 06 PM 19.9 21.2 22.1 23.0 06 PM 12/25
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$319
WGUS84 KJAN 221727
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1127 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi...
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites.
Additional information is available at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan
The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.
&&
MSC133-232327-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0063.171223T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T1500Z.171226T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1127 AM CST Fri Dec 22 2017
The Flood Warning continues for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower
* from Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 10:00 AM Friday the stage was 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage late tomorrow
morning and will continue to rise to near 23.0 feet Monday
evening.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Farm roads to catfish ponds become
inundated.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Field west of river begins to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Sat Sun Mon Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 20.0 Fri 10 AM 20.9 21.7 22.6 23.0 06 PM 12/25
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$425
WGUS84 KJAN 230148
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
748 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi...
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites.
Additional information is available at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan
The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.
&&
MSC133-240748-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0063.171223T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T1500Z.171225T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
748 PM CST Fri Dec 22 2017
The Flood Warning continues for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower
* from Saturday morning until further notice.
* At 6:00 PM Friday the stage was 20.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage late tomorrow
morning and will continue to rise to near 23.0 feet early Monday
afternoon.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Field west of river begins to flood.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Farm roads to catfish ponds become
inundated.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Sat Sun Mon Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 20.3 Fri 06 PM 20.9 21.9 22.9 23.0 12 PM 12/25
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$513
WGUS84 KJAN 231712
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1112 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi...
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.
Additional information is available at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan
The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.
&&
MSC133-242312-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-171228T0600Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T1444Z.171225T0000Z.171227T1800Z.NO/
1112 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2017
The Flood Warning continues for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower
* until late Wednesday night.
* At 10:00 AM Saturday the stage was 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 22.5 feet
tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Farm roads to catfish ponds become
inundated.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...The field west of river begins to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Sun Mon Tue Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 21.0 Sat 10 AM 22.1 22.5 21.9 22.5 06 PM 12/24
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$226
WGUS84 KJAN 240244
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
844 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.
The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.
&&
MSC133-250844-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-171227T1559Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T1444Z.171225T1200Z.171227T0359Z.NO/
844 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2017
The Flood Warning continues for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 7:00 PM Saturday the stage was 21.3 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 22.0 feet Monday
morning.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Field west of river begins to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Sun Mon Tue Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 21.3 Sat 07 PM 21.5 22.0 21.7 22.0 06 AM 12/25
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$385
WGUS84 KJAN 241505
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
905 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi...
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.
Additional information is available at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan
The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.
&&
MSC133-252105-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-171227T2159Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T1444Z.171225T1800Z.171227T0959Z.NO/
905 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2017
...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower
* until Wednesday afternoon.
* At 8:00 AM Sunday the stage was 21.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 21.8 feet
tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Field west of river begins to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 21.5 Sun 08 AM 21.7 21.7 20.9 21.8 06 PM 12/25
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$913
WGUS84 KJAN 250143
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
743 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.
The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.
&&
MSC133-260743-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-171227T0600Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T1444Z.171225T0600Z.171226T1800Z.NO/
743 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2017
The Flood Warning continues for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower
* until late Tuesday night.
* At 6:00 PM Sunday the stage was 21.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is cresting, and will then begin to fall.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Field west of river begins to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Mon Tue Wed Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 21.6 Sun 06 PM 21.6 21.2 20.2 Cresting
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$637
WGUS84 KJAN 251622
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1022 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi...
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.
Additional information is available at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan
The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.
&&
MSC133-262222-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-171227T0900Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T1444Z.171225T0300Z.171226T2100Z.NO/
1022 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2017
...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower
* until late Tuesday night.
* At 9:00 AM Monday the stage was 21.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below
flood stage tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Field west of river begins to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Tue Wed Thu Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 21.5 Mon 09 AM 21.3 20.5 19.3 crested
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$351
WGUS84 KJAN 260228
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
828 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.
The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.
&&
MSC133-270600-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-171227T0600Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T1444Z.171225T0300Z.171226T1800Z.NO/
828 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2017
The Flood Warning continues for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower
* until late Tuesday night.
* At 7:00 PM Monday the stage was 21.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below
flood stage early tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Field west of river begins to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Tue Wed Thu Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 21.4 Mon 07 PM 21.1 20.4 19.3 Falling
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$468
WGUS84 KJAN 261620
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
1020 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2017
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in
Mississippi..
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites.
Additional information is available at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan
The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.
&&
MSC133-270600-
/O.CON.KJAN.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-171227T0600Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T1444Z.171225T0300Z.171226T1800Z.NO/
1020 AM CST Tue Dec 26 2017
The Flood Warning continues for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower
* until late tonight.
* At 9:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 21.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below
flood stage this afternoon.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Wed Thu Fri Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 21.0 Tue 09 AM 20.5 19.9 19.0 Falling
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$796
WGUS84 KJAN 270119
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
719 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2017
...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river
in Mississippi...
Big Sunflower River At Sunflower affecting Sunflower County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't
drown!
Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.
The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.
&&
MSC133-270149-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-171227T0600Z/
/SUNM6.1.ER.171223T1444Z.171225T0300Z.171226T1700Z.NO/
719 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2017
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
The Big Sunflower River At Sunflower.
* At 6:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 20.8 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 11:00 AM Tuesday.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 19.9 feet Thursday
morning.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Field west of river begins to flood.
&&
Flood Observed Forecast 6 AM Crest
Location Stg Stg Day Time Wed Thu Fri Crest Time Date
Big Sunflower River
Sunflower 21 20.8 Tue 06 PM 20.5 19.9 19.0 Falling
&&
LAT...LON 3324 9081 3363 9062 3388 9075 3399 9059
3363 9048 3324 9064
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 21, 9:25 AM CST, 1 hour 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 21, 9:25 AM CST, 1 hour 34 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
925 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017
.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Dense fog still hanging tough over a corridor from northwest to
southeast across the forecast area while conditions have improved
elsewhere. Have extended dense fog advisory in those areas until
16Z. The HRRR is indicating that the low clouds and fog will
continue to lift over most sections this afternoon allowing
temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s. Over northeast
sections where the clouds hang on the longest, however, only mid
60s appear attainable. /26/
Prior discussion below:
Today through tonight:
Areas of dense fog have formed early this morning and will
persist through mid-morning. A dense fog advisory is already in
effect for the entire area until 9am. The fog should begin to mix
out by mid/late morning. A nice day is on tap for the ArkLaMiss
under upper ridging, with mainly partly cloudy skies by this
afternoon, and highs in the low/mid 70s for much of the area.
Upper ridging will begin to give way to an upper trough that will
slowly move eastward across the plains tonight. By early on Friday a
Baroclinic zone will set up from Northeast Texas into the Ohio
valley. Showers will develop along this zone very early on Friday
and increase in intensity through the morning hours. Some of the
precip will move into the delta early on Friday also, but expect
showers to mainly be light during this period. Areas of fog will
once again be possible late tonight through Friday morning, mainly
south of the Natchez trace. /15/
Friday through next Wednesday:
A wet pattern by late this week & into this weekend will give way to
a pattern change and a cold arctic airmass & strong high pressure by
late December around Christmas and just before the end of the year.
By Friday, expect mid-level ridging increase across the area as
strong mid-level ridge (~590DM) to amplify over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico towards the Yucatan Peninsula/western portions of
Cuba. As the strong trough continues to dig down through just south
of the Four Corners and along the Mexican border, expect a strong
stretched out synoptic jet to exist from the Plains into the Great
Lakes. This will help a surface low to quickly eject into the Great
Lakes, with an attendant cold front moving through the Great Plains
and into the ArkLaTex and mid-Mississippi Valley. This pattern will
southwesterly warm air advection, isentropic lift and moisture
advection to continue across the region. Some patchy fog is again
possible in the southeast Friday morning before lifting by Friday
afternoon. This pattern will also lead to anomalously warm
temperatures, even with the widespread clouds around the area. Highs
could top out 15-20 degrees above normal, with some record highs
possible across the region, especially near Greenwood, Vicksburg and
the Jackson metro area. In addition to warm temperatures, heavy
rainfall potential continues to look focused right around to just
behind the stalled cold front/baroclinic zone. Models, including
the Euro, and some hi-res guidance have slowly shifted to the
northwest into Arkansas and north Mississippi just outside or on
the fringe of the ArkLaMiss Delta. Hi-res and global models
continue to paint a picture of a stripe of heavy rainfall (1-3+
inches, with 4-6 inches outside our area) just near or north of
Ashley & Chicot Counties in Arkansas to Washington and
Bolivar/Sunflower Counties in Mississippi. Due to the
strengthening ridge over the Gulf, northward trend in the QPF due
to that and lessening moisture due to some increasing
subsidence/capping, confined the highest PoPs and QPF into the
ArkLaMiss Delta Friday afternoon. Expect 1-3 inches with locally
higher amounts possible. WPC is also continuing to highlight this
with a marginal and slight risk for the ArkLaMiss Delta, with a
moderate excessive rainfall outside of our area. Due to this
setup, slightly adjusted the limited flash flood risk further
north in the HWO/graphics, but stretched it out towards Grenada
and I-55, as they had some decent rain the last couple of days.
Right now there isn't enough confidence to introduce an elevated
area or contemplate a flash flood watch, but will be something to
watch.
As the ridge axis slowly shifts east off the Atlantic seaboard,
expect the trough swings through the ArkLaTex by overnight Friday.
This should provide enough push for a more progressive pattern than
the guidance was showing yesterday. This will bring the cold front &
rain quickly through the Delta and across the area by mid-morning to
early in the afternoon on Saturday. Due to the anafrontal nature &
limited instability/forcing and time of frontal passage, not
expecting much in the way of any severe weather but can't rule out
an isolated strong storm or so. Due to the progressive nature, the
main areas that we will continue to highlight for limited flash
flood risk is in the ArkLaMiss Delta where they received some decent
rainfall.
By the end of the weekend (Christmas Eve) and into Christmas Day and
next week, strong surface high and much drier air and arctic airmass
will build into the area in the wake of the cold front. A strong
polar trough/stratospheric intrusion will dip down through the
Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley by late weekend & into early next
week. This pattern will help a nearly 1040mb surface high to develop
over the leeward side of the Rockies and drift down into the central-
southern Plains by around Monday. Guidance has slowly come down on
the pressures, unlike what it was showing earlier in the week. This
will still bring a reinforcing shot of cold & dry air across the
region by Christmas Day. Model sounding & thermal profiles are not
as cold as yesterday, so didn't stray as cold (still went
slightly cooler on highs Christmas Day) as yesterday towards the
raw guidance. But that will be something to watch. Due to strong
cold air advection and cold thermal profiles, highs should only
top out in the mid-upper 40s, some 8-12+ degrees below normal. In
addition, the strong surface ridge axis will move over on
Christmas Day but we should have enough of a gradient and not as
cold thermal profiles. With efficient radiational cooling, we
could still bottom out in the low- mid 20s, mainly along & north
of the I-20 corridor, with just below freezing south of I-20. As
the surface high builds east, strong warm air advection/warmer
thermal profiles will help us quickly warm into to near normals in
the mid-upper 50s by mid-week (Tuesday- Wednesday). After that,
another longwave trough will dig down into the western CONUS.
There is considerable uncertainty and not much consensus on that
but some increasing rain chances could move back in by mid-late
week. For now, it looks warm enough to keep it all rain, but as
mentioned before considerable uncertainty & strong cold
front/surface high building through the Great Lakes and to our
north could make it interesting. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
IFR conditions continue at all TAF sites this morning as
widespread fog/stratus prevails. Expect these conditions to
continue through 15-16Z before mixing out later this morning. VFR
conditions will prevail this afternoon through the evening hours,
but another round of fog/stratus is on tap for tonight, with
rainshowers possible in the delta late in the period./15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 72 58 78 60 / 1 19 25 67
Meridian 67 54 75 61 / 1 18 25 48
Vicksburg 74 59 78 56 / 1 26 31 78
Hattiesburg 71 56 76 63 / 1 14 25 43
Natchez 75 60 77 58 / 7 23 26 70
Greenville 67 57 73 51 / 4 51 63 84
Greenwood 70 55 76 53 / 1 36 50 81
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MSZ018-019-
025-034>036-040>044-047>052-055>058-064>066-072>074.
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ007>009-
015-016-023.
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ074-075.
&&Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 21, 2:53 AM CST, 8 hours 6 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 253 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 220900- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar- Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes- Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston- Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper- Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah- Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln- Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 253 AM CST Thu Dec 21 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FOG THREAT...Elevated TIMING...Through daybreak Areas of fog are developing across the area and will persist through early this morning. Some of the fog could be dense at times with visibility below a quarter mile. Motorists may want to plan for extra travel time for the early morning commute. (www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Heavy rainfall will be possible between Friday and Friday night. Areas to be impacted by the greatest rainfall amounts will be primarily through far southeast Arkansas, far northeast Louisiana, and the upper Mississippi Delta region. Totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts could result in flash flooding in areas with already saturated soils. (www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Tuesday. 15 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *FOG* Extreme...Widespread fog with visibilities near zero. Significant...Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile likely. Elevated...Fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile possible. Limited...Patchy fog with visibilities less than or equal to 1/4 mile possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Find NWS JAN on Facebook... www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss
The office that day
Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2:05 AM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | JAN | Adams, Attala, Bolivar, Carroll, Choctaw, Claiborne and 41 more | 8 hr |
| Dec 21, 2:33 PM CST | Dense Fog Advisory | JAN | Clarke, Clay, Covington, Forrest, Jasper, Jefferson Davis and 16 more | 19 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2017Every river flood warning in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.