River Flood Warning 62, NWS Jackson, MS

895 
WGUS84 KJAN 210131
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
731 PM CST Wed Dec 20 2017


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers 
in Mississippi...
 
  Yalobusha At Whaley affecting Carroll and Leflore Counties


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. Routine 48 hours of forecast rainfall is used on Tibbee 
Creek...Luxapallila Creek...Noxubee River...and the Tombigbee River.

The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC015-083-210201-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-171222T0000Z/
/YWGM6.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
731 PM CST Wed Dec 20 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Yalobusha At Whaley.
* At  7:00 PM Wednesday the stage was at 19.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 19.0 feet. The 
  river will fall to 13.0 feet by Friday.


&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Yalobusha River
Whaley         21  19.0 Wed 07 PM  17.1  13.0  12.2               


&&


LAT...LON 3362 9015 3375 9015 3383 8989 3380 8984
      3368 9006 3354 9014             



$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1020 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for morning discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cleared the remaining Marginal risk for severe weather from our
Hazardous Weather Outlook as storms have moved east out of the
area this morning. A few light rain showers will continue to be
possible around the area, but any additional rain amounts will be
negligible. Broken low clouds as a cool airmass moves over the
warm ground will result in periods of sunshine and some daytime
heating. /NF/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight:

Flow quickly becomes zonal out of the west as shortwave ridging
builds in. This orientation of the background wind fields with
respect to the thermal gradient doesn't favor cold air advection,
so even though the cold front will have passed high temperatures
will once again be warm in the low to mid 70s across the majority
of the ArkLaMiss. The exception will be over the Hwy 82 corridor
where greater cloud cover will help keep temps slightly cooler in
the mid to upper 60s. Much drier air will filter into the area
overnight with dewpoints dropping into the mid to upper 40s. Calm
winds would normally favor efficient radiational cooling in this
setup, however lingering low level moisture in the form of low
clouds could end up being a limiting factor in greater cooling
overnight. Nonetheless, low temperatures will drop into the upper
40s across the region. The cooler air combined with the lingering
moisture will also lead to another night of at least widespread
patchy fog. While dense fog cannot be ruled out, it will dependent
on how much cloud cover is realized. /TW/

Thursday through next Tuesday:

Overall a wet pattern & unsettled pattern will eventually give
way to an arctic airmass as we move into late December and
Christmas Day & the days after a strong cold front & high
pressure move in next week.

By Thursday, expect a somewhat temporary reprieve from all the
rainy & stormy days as some weak mid-level ridging move over as
isentropic subsidence & PWs closer to half an inch or so help dry
us out. There could be some patchy fog lingering in the morning
but that should lift out quickly by mid-morning. The cold front
will be mainly confined to the Gulf Coast but a warm front & warm
air advection will slowly increase as southerly return flow
redevelops by the Thursday afternoon. This will help PWs to
quickly increase above an inch or so by Friday evening across most
of the region, which will help some cloud cover move into the
southern-southwest portions of the area by mid-late afternoon.
Expect any rain chances to slowly increase after midnight across
my southwestern zones. As a trough continues to dig down into the
Great Basin/southern Rockies by Friday, expect mid-level ridging
to increase and moisture advection to continue to help strengthen.
As a strong synoptic jet at 500mb (80kts+) & 300mb (100-120kts+)
develops & stretches out over the central Plains and even stronger
into the Great Lakes, expect a large stalled cold front/baroclinic
zone to stretch across through the mid-Mississippi Valley & into
the northeast. This will efficient moisture transport & PWs
closing in on an inch & three quarters stalled throughout the
ArkLaTex. This pattern supports heavy rain potential just along &
to the northwest of the ArkLaMiss Delta. This will help most of
the widespread rain chances to remain confined out of our area.
Ahead of that, with strong warm air advection & very warm thermal
profiles, high temperatures both Thursday & Friday will be very
warm, approaching 10-15+ degrees above normal in the upper 60s to
low-mid 70s both Thursday and especially Friday.

As the trough digs swings to our northwest into the start of the
weekend, expect heavy rainfall that has been confined to our
northwest to slowly drift across our region. The newer 06Z GFS has
come in line with the Euro with being a somewhat slower solution,
keeping the rain & storm chances lingering through most of
Saturday, rather than the slower solutions. Sided towards the
slower Euro & newer GFS solutions, pushing this cold front through
Saturday & into Sunday. For now, it looks as though any heavy rain
potential will be confined to our northwest to possibly in our
northwest Delta counties where strong moisture advection/PWs
approaching an inch and three quarters or higher could somewhat
train over the same areas Saturday morning. WPC is highlighting a
marginal for our far northwest Delta counties in Mississippi to
near southeast Arkansas. For now, with the trough seeming to
quickly eject through Saturday, going to hold off introducing
anything into the HWO/graphics. But this would be the area that
could have some potential in addition to the efficient rainfall
currently ongoing. In addition, this pattern looks very similar
to the one we are currently in (heights/wind fields/instability),
so couldn't rule out some low end strong-severe storms risk.
However, instability is limited enough to not introduce anything
in the HWO/graphics as well.

By the end of the weekend (Christmas Eve) & into Christmas Day and
next week, a pattern change is in store as very strong cold front
will usher in very dry air & strong arctic airmass by early to mid
parts of next week. Expect rain chances to move out by late
weekend on Sunday and much drier air to filter in. As a strong
polar trough/stratospheric intrusion swing through the Rockies &
into the mid-Mississippi Valley by late weekend and early next
week, expect anomalously strong surface ridging (nearly
1035-1040mb or higher) to build down the leeward side of the
Rockies and towards the southern Plains by early next week. This
trough will bring this reinforcing shot of cold & dry air in by
Sunday & into Monday (Christmas Day). Model soundings show
extremely anomalous cold thermal profiles (between 0 to -6 deg C
or less at 925mb & 850mb), which could support very chilly high
temperatures struggling to make the lower 40s. For now, lowered
highs a few degrees or so into the low-mid 40s on Christmas Day.
In addition, as the 1030-1035mb surface high drifts across the
region, expect very cold temperatures, possibly into the low-mid
20s, maybe some areas sneaking into the teens. Some analogs still
show December of 1983 & CPC is still highlighting some
probabilities to get into the lower 20s & some very cold wind
chills. Lowered low temperatures both Sunday and Monday nights as
well but the position of the surface high & any winds will be
key. By Tuesday, expect the surface high to drift east and return
flow to only slowly develop in the west. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a cold
front is currently pushing east of I-55 and will clear all TAF
sites within the next few hours. Expect low visibilities, ceilings
and gusty winds with these storms. An area of low stratus over the
Delta will keep IFR ceilings around longer at GLH/GWO through the
mid morning hours before eventually lifting. Elsewhere, expect
mainly MVFR ceilings increasing to VFR by this afternoon. Winds
will gust from 20-25kts today out of the NNW before relaxing after
sunset. Lingering low level moisture will help form another low
cloud deck with some fog issues again tonight with widespread
IFR/LIFR at all TAF sites. /TW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  48  74  59 /   5   0   1  15
Meridian      74  49  70  55 /   8   0   1  21
Vicksburg     72  48  74  60 /   3   0   1  26
Hattiesburg   74  50  71  58 /  22   0   2  20
Natchez       71  50  74  62 /   3   0   4  22
Greenville    63  46  68  58 /   4   0   3  50
Greenwood     65  46  70  58 /   5   0   1  45

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

TW/NF/DC

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
959 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
211600-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
959 AM CST Wed Dec 20 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Tuesday.

NF

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

No short term hazards expected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss