Hard Freeze Warning 1, NWS Jackson, MS

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
612 PM CST Fri Jan 6 2017

...WINTRY WEATHER TRANSITIONING TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:

A combination of FZRA/IP/SN will end from west to east this evening
and expect VFR conditions to quickly return to the entire area by
daybreak as the system moves east. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Now through tonight:

Currently watching a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and some snow (and
even plain rain) marching northeast across the southeastern half to
two-thirds of the forecast area as the brunt of the associated upper
disturbance impacts the region. So far the predominant precipitation
type has been sleet in the heart of the region due to a "warm nose"
of temperatures from 5 to 10 KFT above the surface melting generated
snow aloft with refreezing taking place in the chilly conditions
just above the surface. Further toward the southeast portions of the
region there has been a majority of freezing rain because refreezing
nearer the surface has not been occurring. Elsewhere, in northwest
portions of the CWA, there has lately been mostly snow since the
mentioned "warm nose" is nearer (or actually even below) freezing.
We anticipate this gradient of precip types to press east through
the evening with eventually most areas at least having a shot of
receiving a bit of snow before precipitation ends altogether. But
even though snow has been a harder commodity to find in the areas of
heavy precipitation, the accumulations of ice and sleet are proving
enough to verify the previously issued winter storm warning in most
effected locations. Chilly temperatures in central zones largely
below freezing are allowing accumulations on road surfaces
(especially bridges and overpasses) and any accumulations or wetness
lingering into tonight will have a tough time dispersing owing to
falling temperatures.

We still anticipate the precipitation to shut down from west to east
relatively quickly this evening, of course ending lastly in eastern
zones of MS. But even in eastern MS the precipitation should be over
an hour or two before midnight and the current midnight expiration
of the winter weather advisory and winter storm warning will not
need to be extended. However, the cold weather late tonight will
likely warrant the issuance of a wind chill advisory for at least
northern portions of the region into tomorrow morning as the
combination of temperatures near or just below 20 degrees and
continuing gusty north winds brings wind chills below 10 degrees. We
have issued something in the HWO and graphics mentioning this hazard
but will refrain from issuing a wind chill advisory just yet to
avoid confusion with other current winter weather products. /BB/

Tomorrow through next week...

A frigid arctic airmass will have settled over the region by
tomorrow. High temperatures will be over 20 degrees below normal,
struggling to eclipse the 32 degree mark. A tight pressure gradient
due to high pressure filtering into the area will result in cold
north winds of around 10-15 mph. Max wind chills will only reach the
lower 20's. This could be the coldest day we've seen in quite some
time in the ArkLaMiss. Winds should begin to decrease tomorrow
evening as high pressure becomes centered over the area. However,
this set up will result in an increased radiational cooling effect
for Saturday night/Sunday morning. Expect wind chills to fall to
dangerous single digit values once again on early Sunday morning.

Temperatures will finally increase to above the freezing mark
areawide on by late Sunday morning. By this time, some locations in
the northern portions of the ArkLaMiss will have spent 60+ hours
below freezing.

A drastic change in our weather pattern is in store for next week as
the surface high moves east and stalls just off of the east coast.
The return flow from the surface high over the east coast will
result in low level southerly flow for our region. Temperatures will
be back to near average on Monday and highs could flirt with the 70s
by Tuesday and throughout the rest of the week. A weak surface front
will begin to approach the region on Tuesday, increasing rain
chances from the north. Models begin to diverge by midweek, but all
agree on the meandering front resulting in rain chances as well as
well above average temperatures throughout the work week next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       20  32  16  40 /  53   5   0   0
Meridian      20  30  17  40 /  84   7   0   0
Vicksburg     20  33  16  40 /  24   4   0   0
Hattiesburg   23  35  19  43 /  96   8   1   1
Natchez       20  33  17  42 /  48   5   0   0
Greenville    18  30  16  38 /  14   3   0   0
Greenwood     17  30  16  40 /  15   4   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MSZ038-039-
     043>066-072>074.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MSZ018-
     019-025>037-040>042.

LA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for LAZ016-
     023>026.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ARZ074-
     075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
326 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-MSZ018-019-025>037-040>042-072130-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
326 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SNOW
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING

WIND CHILL DANGER
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

HARD FREEZE
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

LIGHT SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. MANY
ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BE SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS. COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADWAYS TO PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BRINGING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING SATURDAY.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL POSE A RISK TO EXPOSED PEOPLE...PETS AND
PIPES AND THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO EXPOSED SKIN.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE2.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LOWS BELOW 20 DEGREES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTLOOK
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE DANGER TO THOSE WITHOUT SHELTER
AND TO EXPOSED PIPES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE2.GIF)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

LAZ016-023>026-MSZ038-039-043>056-059-060-072130-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
326 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SNOW
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING

ICE ACCUMULATION
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING

WIND CHILL DANGER
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

HARD FREEZE
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY

A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE ENDING. MANY ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL
BE SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. IN ADDITION...LIGHT ICING OF POWERLINES COULD
CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW AT
LEAST A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS TO PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO A RANGE OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BRINGING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TOWARD SUNRISE AND UNTIL MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL POSE A RISK TO EXPOSED PEOPLE...PETS AND PIPES AND
THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO EXPOSED SKIN.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE2.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LOWS BELOW 20 DEGREES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTLOOK
AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AGAIN ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL AT LEAST MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE DANGER TO THOSE WITHOUT SHELTER
AND TO EXPOSED PIPES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE2.GIF)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

MSZ057-058-061>066-072>074-072130-
JASPER-CLARKE-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
326 PM CST FRI JAN 6 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SNOW
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING

ICE ACCUMULATION
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING

FREEZE AND FROST
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...SATURDAY

A MIX OF SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EVENING AND BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT. MANY ROADS...ESPECIALLY
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. IN
ADDITION...LIGHT ICING OF POWERLINES COULD CAUSE ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES. COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A FEW SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADWAYS TO PERSIST WELL INTO SATURDAY.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE1.GIF)

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO AROUND 20 DEGREES LATE TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUING GUSTY NORTH WINDS BRINGING WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND 10
DEGREES BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL POSE A RISK
TO EXPOSED PEOPLE...PETS AND PIPES AND THE WIND CHILLS WILL BE
DANGEROUS TO EXPOSED SKIN.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE2.GIF)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LOWS BELOW 20 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AGAIN SOLIDLY ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE DANGER TO THOSE WITHOUT SHELTER AND TO
EXPOSED PIPES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TIME.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE2.GIF)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SNOW*
EXTREME...ROADS IMPASSABLE AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES LIKELY.
SIGNIFICANT...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS POWER
 OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND SPORADIC POWER
 OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
LIMITED...BRIDGES MAY BE SNOW-COVERED.

*WIND CHILL DANGER*
EXTREME...WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN -15 DEGREES F.
SIGNIFICANT...WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 AND -14 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 AND 5 DEGREES.
LIMITED...WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 DEGREES.

*HARD FREEZE*
EXTREME...LOWS BELOW 10 DEGREES AND HIGHS BELOW 32 DEGREES
 LIKELY.
SIGNIFICANT...LOWS BELOW 15 DEGREES AND HIGHS BELOW 32 DEGREES
 LIKELY.
ELEVATED...LOWS BELOW 20 DEGREES AND HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW 32
 LIKELY.
LIMITED...LOWS BELOW 20 DEGREES AND HIGHS NEAR OR BELOW 32
 DEGREES POSSIBLE.

*ICE ACCUMULATION*
EXTREME...ROADS IMPASSABLE AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES LIKELY.
SIGNIFICANT...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND NUMEROUS POWER
 OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES
 POSSIBLE.
LIMITED...LIGHT ICING OF BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

*FREEZE AND FROST*
EXTREME...HARD FREEZE (LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 28 DEGREES) DURING
 THE GROWING SEASON WITH CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED
 TENDER VEGETATION.
SIGNIFICANT...FREEZE EXPECTED (LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 32 DEGREES)
 FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE DURING THE GROWING SEASON WITH SIGNIFICANT
 DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED TENDER VEGETATION.
ELEVATED...FROST EXPECTED DURING THE GROWING SEASON WITH DAMAGE
 TO UNPROTECTED TENDER VEGETATION. THIS MAY INCLUDE TEMPERATURES
 LESS THAN 32 DEGREES FOR 1-2 HOURS.
LIMITED...PATCHY FROST DURING THE GROWING SEASON WITH MINOR
 DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED TENDER VEGETATION.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE
LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR WINTER WEATHER ISSUES...

CURRENT WINTER WEATHER...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE_WINTER

LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

DAY 1 THROUGH 3 WINTER THREATS...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/WINTER_WX.SHTML
WINTER IMPACT DISCUSSION...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFHSD.HTML

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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