Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
402 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

Severe weather is possible across much of the forecast area late
this afternoon and evening. A line of storms from south central
Lower Michigan extending southeast into central Illinois will
track southeast through the region. Isolated damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threat with some large hail also possible. Much
cooler conditions are expected for the middle of the week, along
for chances of showers, Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

Little change with respect to severe storm potential. Convection
beginning to initiate across northeast CWA and will likely begin
to develop farther southwest with time. Upscale growth amid
moderately unstable 2500-3000 j/kg MLCAPE and 35 to 40 kts deep
layer shear should ensue in relatively quick fashion with cold
pool congealment and wind profiles to favor linear modality with
isolated damaging wind gusts the primary threat. A distant
secondary risk for some hail, especially early tied with plume of
7-7.5 c/km mid level lapse rates. Earlier offsets against full
potential insolation with morning convective debris and smoke
layer aloft may prove saving grace for a more widespread/higher
end event. Rapid southeast progression out southeast edge CWA by
02-03 UTC.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

Multi-spoked upper low to dominate mid week with cooler temps.
Tuesday daytime still likely a lull after extreme sweep out of
airmass and next upstream trof axis and will continue dry for CWA.
However, small chance for showers exist across far
northern/northeast CWA associated with secondary pockets DCVA and
8-8.5 C/km 1000-700 mb lapse rates coincident with wrapped
moisture. Higher chance showers midweek as vortex deepens/moves
southward over Upper Great Lakes. Thereafter, dry period with
gradual thermal moderation into early next week with CWA within
heart of rex ridge between Irma and departed system through the
Lower Great Lakes into New England.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

VFR with wsw winds gusting 25-30 knots through at least mid
afternoon as boundary layer continues to deepen/destabilize and
flow strengthens in advance of a cold front. This strongly forced
cold front then swings through KSBN 21-22z and KFWA toward 00z.
Thunderstorms will likely accompany the frontal passage, more
scattered/broken near KSBN and likely more organized/linear with
a wind threat (40-60 kts) at KFWA. A brief period of LIFR to IFR
appears likely as this line of convection moves through. Dry/cool
advection post-frontal will provide lighter nw winds and VFR
conditions tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...Murphy
LONG TERM...Murphy
AVIATION...Steinwedel

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
506 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-050915-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
506 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 /406 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening. Severe
weather is possible. Damaging straight line winds are the primary
threat but some hail may be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003-MIZ077-050915-
La Porte-Berrien-
506 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017 /406 AM CDT Mon Sep 4 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Michigan
and northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. These storms may be
strong to severe with damaging winds possible.

Dangerous swimming conditions due to high waves and rip currents are
expected at Lake Michigan beaches today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Dangerous swimming conditions due to high waves and rip currents will
continue at Lake Michigan beaches through Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-050915-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
506 AM EDT Mon Sep 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Conditions hazardous to small craft will continue through Wednesday
morning.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
552 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017

INZ014>016-042215-
Kosciusko-Marshall-Fulton-
552 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL FULTON...KOSCIUSKO
AND SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 551 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Argos, or 8
miles southeast of Plymouth, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Warsaw, Plymouth, Winona Lake, Bourbon, Argos, North Webster,
Pierceton, Mentone, Walnut, Tippecanoe, Etna Green, Leesburg,
Claypool, Burket, Sidney, Big Barbee Lake, Ridinger Lake, Monoquet,
Hoffman Lake and Atwood.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4132 8632 4137 8565 4118 8565 4118 8569
      4110 8569 4114 8632
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 269DEG 40KT 4124 8623

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
558 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND GST     BOURBON                 41.30N 86.12W
09/04/2017  M45 MPH          MARSHALL           IN   MESONET

            STATION ID; BOURI3.

&&

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
558 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017

INZ020-042230-
White-
558 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WHITE COUNTY...

At 558 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Remington, or
10 miles northeast of Wadena, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Wolcott, Reynolds, Chalmers, Burnettsville, Golden Hill,
Indiana Beach, Norway, Smithson, Idaville, Sitka and Cedar Point.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 191 and 198.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4084 8710 4084 8678 4083 8658 4074 8658
      4074 8675 4073 8676 4072 8675 4070 8676
      4069 8675 4068 8676 4068 8674 4066 8678
      4059 8677 4065 8710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 277DEG 36KT 4075 8710

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
601 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017

MIZ081-042215-
Hillsdale-
601 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HILLSDALE COUNTY...

At 601 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Hudson, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hudson, Pittsford, Ransom, Prattville, Shadyside, Betzer and Osseo.

LAT...LON 4173 8436 4177 8460 4195 8458 4196 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 274DEG 40KT 4186 8449

NWS