Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
354 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 346 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Showers and storms can be expected late this afternoon into this
evening as a weak upper level system combines with afternoon
heating. After a short break in the activity, more storms are
expected Wednesday and Thursday as upper level systems move into
the area. A strong cold front will arrive Thursday night and bring
much cooler weather to the area Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

A weak upper level system, weak return flow and diurnal heating have
combined to trigger scattered showers and storms across the area
through mid afternoon. Surface based CAPES have topped 2500 J/Kg per
SPC meso analysis near Monticello.  The activity will remain pulse
type and should stay relatively unorganized with maximum wind
gusts under 40 mph and possibly pea-sized. Storms should dissipate
by early tonight.

More storms are expected to develop Wednesday as an upper level TROF
moves southeast into the area. Storm activity should be accentuated
by diurnal heating and may become rather numerous by late in the
day. Severe storms are not expected given very little shear;
however, maximum wind gusts could reach between 30 and 40 mph given
downward CAPE near or topping 1000 J/kg.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Storm chances will continue into Thursday and Thursday night as a
cold front and vigorous upper level system approach. There is a
chance for at least marginally severe storms late Thursday into
early Thursday night as low level wind shear increases. Chilly air
will spread across the Friday with temperatures staying in the 60s
over northwest areas. Breezing to windy conditions will lead to
dangerous swimming conditions on Lake Michigan Friday.

For Saturday through next Tuesday, the northwest flow aloft will
persist with occasional upper level disturbances providing chances
for showers and storms. Temperatures should stay below normal with
high mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

Introduced period of VCSH at KFWA where slight increase in
coverage/intensity of showers/storms has been noted. Once the
feature causing the activity departs that should be the end of
anything at FWA. At KSBN a few showers came close but are now NE
of the area and think main coverage of additional activity will
remain SW of the area.

Could see a touch of fog at both sites overnight, but low enough
confidence to leave out for now. Risk of showers and storms will
arrive again towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Fisher

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
521 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-020930-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
521 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 /421 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An isolated thunderstorm is possible late this morning through early
this evening, especially along and south of Route 30. Severe weather
is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms again Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. Severe weather is not expected.

Thunderstorm chances will increase late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but an
isolated strong to severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out west of
Interstate 69 late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-020930-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
521 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday.

Thunderstorm chances will increase late Thursday afternoon into
early Thursday evening. A few of the storms may be strong to severe.

Hazardous conditions for small craft are possible Friday and Friday
night.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
600 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

INZ023-024-032-012230-
Wabash-Miami-Grant-
600 PM EDT TUE AUG 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WABASH...
NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTIES...

At 600 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bunker Hill, or
8 miles southeast of Grissom Afb, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wabash, La Fontaine, Converse, Amboy, Santa Fe, Richvalley,
Wawpecong, Treaty, Peoria, Jalapa and Somerset.

LAT...LON 4061 8610 4085 8593 4067 8566 4057 8584
      4056 8604 4056 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 221DEG 17KT 4059 8601

NWS