Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
202 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

A weak cold front will continue to push through the region into
this evening. An isolated shower or thunderstorm may occur along
and southeast of Interstate 69, but severe weather is not
expected. High pressure will then build in to bring dry weather
and seasonably cool weather to start the week. Much warmer weather
can be expected by Wednesday as the low level flow becomes
southwest. Highs today and Monday will be mostly in the 70s, but
then approach 90 by the middle of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Secondary weak sfc front making rapid progress across the CWA this
aftn and as thought in previous days failing to spark any
shower/storm development. 12Z surrounding raobs indicate why with
limited low level moisture return underneath fairly vigorous mid
level capping inversion. About the only chance will be through nw OH
and ern IL/wrn IN late this aftn timed with brief period of better
mid level forcing associated with sw disturbance over wrn lake SP
dropping due south and some weak low level theta-e ridging...however
even this occurs...it looks to be isolated.

Otherwise broad sfc ridging will engulf the lakes on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Turning decidedly warmer and more humid this period as significant
upper ridge builds out across the central plains. North through
northeast periphery of this feature will no doubt support an active
nw-se oriented frontal zone. Nonetheless highly doubt 90 degree
temps possible as seen in extended MOS guidance at times given
generally wet ground conditions within maximized cropscape. Mid 80s
more likely which will be uncomfortable enough as evapotranspiration
drives sfc dewpoints well into the 70s Thu on.

Timing of pertinent wx inducing sw disturbances of note in this
pattern sketchy at best and of which will dictate nwd reach of
active frontal zone. In addition likely upstream MCS generation and
downstream progression/evolution will modulate boundary placement as
augmented through convective outflow. Thus egregious blended pops
were largely abandoned in favor of a more targeted and conservative
approach with greater diurnal weighting in periods of better model
based consensus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Front/wind shift has cleared KSBN and taking aim on KFWA. While
moisture remains in place behind the front, main focus of lift
will exist with the front, limiting chances for showers or storms.
Have removed any VC mention at KSBN and lower to VCSH at KFWA for
a few hours. As for flight conditions, some low clouds existing
behind the front but seem to be favoring locations west of both
sites for the time being. Will monitor trends, but not include in
18Z package. In addition, threat of low clouds/fog could
materialize later tonight into early Monday, but confidence low at
this time so will defer to later forecasts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Skipper/Fisher
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Fisher

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1135 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-171000-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
1135 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 /1035 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There are chances for thunderstorms late this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003-MIZ077-171000-
La Porte-Berrien-
1135 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 /1035 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Michigan
and northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Dangerous swimming conditions along the Lake Michigan shoreline
through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There are chances for thunderstorms late this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-171000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
1135 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Hazardous conditions for small craft are expected through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There are chances for thunderstorms late this week.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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