Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1014 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 740 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop again tonight
especially north of the highway 30 corridor where locally heavy
rainfall is possible. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.

A cold front will push through the area on Thursday with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Cooler and sharply lower
humidity will follow into this weekend. Highs Thursday will range
in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Still much uncertainty on overall evolution of convection
overnight but atmosphere is recovering despite loss of diurnal
heating. SPC mesoanalysis showing 4000 j/kg CAPE over east central
IL slowly expanding eastward last few hours and now nosing into NW
IN. PWATs are an impressive 2.2 inches and 850mb flow now up to
30-35 knots. Theta e max right over this region and being advected
eastward. Seems like only a matter of time before convection fires
or at least upstream storms near MS river rapidly expand east into
this instability. Result should be area of storms moving into our
area overnight and obviously heavy rain the main concern but
isolated strong or severe storm possible with effective shear
around 30-35 knots and 0-3km shear around 25-30 kts. Question
remains where these storms will lay out from west to east and if
they will drift south or become stationary. Neighboring offices to
west opted to fill in flood watch given uncertainty and no reason
not to follow especially with those areas not in watch the areas
hardest hit last few days. Also time shifted pops and flood watch
later by about 3 hours given slow development this evening.
Certainly any storm will have capability to produce 1 to 3 inch
per hour rates and any training will lead to significant flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Messy scenario this aftn as prior convective cluster moving out of
IL/WI now mainly decaying across IWX CWA. Associated outflow
boundary stretches from KADG swwd to KMCX where its anchored into a
persisting cluster of strong storms. Expect these will continue sewd
near term. Otherwise arc of upstream stratiform over ne IL will
continue to advance ewd with time into nw IN and may seed additional
development.

Tremendous instability wedge in place from cntrl IA sewd through
central IL downstream of sfc cyclone over wrn WI. Expect significant
convection will refire upstream from srn WI into cntrl IA and likely
develop further ewd downstream north of outflow boundary late this
afternoon and evening. Given srn periphery of stronger mid level
flow extending across the lakes...at least an isolate damaging wind
risk likely to materialize this evening through nrn zones. However
most substantial risk tied to heavy rain threat which should develop
north of the w-e oriented outflow by this evening and persist for
some time overnight given sustained deep low level moisture flux
overtop this boundary.

Otherwise composite boundary most likely to settle south of much of
the CWA Thu aftn with limited destabilization expected due to cloud
debris. Will follow tight concensus blend which does offer lower pop
guidance across nw zones in the aftn and area wide Thu am.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Upper trough across the nrn lakes will rotate out through New
England early Sat as broad sfc ridge builds set out of the midwest.
Thus a considerably less humid and cooler airmass will overspread
the area Fri into this weekend.

Secondary disturbance will dig into the ern lakes Sun. Passage of
upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft may trigger a few shra
Sun but coverage should be limited per nrn track of mid level wave
and limited sfc based moisture.
Fortunately the rest of the long term period is quiet. Primarily
subsident NW flow expected. Only exception is decent jet streak/
shortwave carving out over the Great Lakes late Sat into Sun. Best
moisture is largely scoured out but models do indicate a decent
theta-e ridge peeling off Northern Plains that could fuel some
showers/storms during this time. No severe concerns at this point
but a low chance for a few storms, primarily during the day
Sunday. Otherwise dry with seasonably cool and much less humid
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 732 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Once again subsidence and stable bubble behind earlier convection
and MCV is helping keep a lid on convection so far this evening.
Different story well upstream where strong instability and
moisture advection was leading to thunderstorm development from
northern WI south to northern MO. Hires guidance really struggling
with overall evolution and low confidence in terminals overnight.
As sun sets should see low level jet increase slightly and out of
high instability source region currently over central IL. This
likely to lead to storm development upstream which will then
propagate eastward toward terminals late this evening north of
composite outflow from earlier convection. Monitoring this area
for signs of development at this time. Stayed with consistency of
previous forecast overnight as scenario is as plausible as any
other. Did adjust timing a little later but again confidence low.
Tonights evolution will determine when and where convection will
fire Thursday but could end up being south of terminals so kept
out of forecast for now.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Thursday for INZ003>009-
     012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MIZ077>081.

OH...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-
     016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Lashley
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Lashley

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

INZ003>009-012>016-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-130945-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 /445 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. Isolated gusty
winds and localized heavy rain are possible.

Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Severe weather
is possible with damaging winds...heavy rain...and flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ015-016-024-025-130945-
Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-
Grant-Blackford-Jay-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible tonight. Severe weather is not expected at
this time.

Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Severe weather
is possible with damaging winds...heavy rain...and flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today but will likely be needed
tomorrow.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-130945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. Gusty winds
are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Strong to severe
storms are possible.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1215 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     FLOOD            3 SSW WATERVLIET        42.15N 86.28W
07/12/2017                   BERRIEN            MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF ROAD WASH OUT, BEGINNING TO
            COLLAPSE, ON HILL RD WEST OF M-140. 2.37
            INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED AT KBEH. 1.39 INCHES
            FELL WITHIN ONE HOUR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
109 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

INZ003-012-014-130600-
La Porte-Marshall-Starke-
109 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT STARKE...MARSHALL AND
SOUTHERN LA PORTE COUNTIES...

At 109 AM EDT/1209 AM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were
located along a line extending from near La Crosse to near Culver.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Plymouth, Bremen, Knox, Walkerton, Bourbon, North Judson, Argos,
Culver, Wanatah, Hamlet, La Crosse, Koontz Lake, Tippecanoe, Oak
Grove, Hanna, La Paz, Lomax, Ober, Teegarden and English Lake.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4145 8693 4146 8653 4143 8652 4143 8647
      4147 8647 4148 8607 4118 8606 4121 8692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0509Z 270DEG 35KT 4133 8683 4127 8640

NWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
128 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

INZ016-130615-
Kosciusko-
128 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN KOSCIUSKO
COUNTY...

At 128 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Plymouth to near Mentone. Movement was
east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Warsaw, Nappanee, Winona Lake, Syracuse, Milford, North Webster,
Pierceton, Etna Green, Leesburg, Big Barbee Lake, Ridinger Lake,
Monoquet, Hoffman Lake, Atwood, Irish Lake, Lake Wawasee, Gravelton,
Little Chapman Lake, Oswego and James Lake.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4144 8593 4143 8566 4120 8566 4121 8605
      4144 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 268DEG 25KT 4134 8628 4124 8601

NWS

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