Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
132 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 AM EDT Mom Jun 18 2017

A strong low pressure system over southeast Ontario will move
slowly northeast early this week resulting in cooler and less
humid air over our area. A couple of troughs rotating around the
Ontario low are expected to cause scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms in our area today and Tuesday. High pressure will
move across our area Wednesday providing fair weather. The high
will move east late this week as a cold front approaches from the
northwest, resulting in warmer more humid conditions with a chance
of thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Sw trough spreading ewd across cntrl lake MI triggering sct tsra
this aftn esp along sfc composite lake breeze confluent zone from nw
IN through srn MI. Expect coverage will widen further through mid
aftn in response to continued favorable sfc based destabilization as
cold pool aloft deepens overhead. Otherwise activity will pull
quickly ewd out out of the cwa by evening.

Similar situation expected tomorrow as nw flow aloft across the
lakes continues before breaking long term. Upstream sw dropping
through MB looks fairly robust per water vapor imagery. Fittingly
bulk of latest and prior CAMS models point to vigorous convective
development by mid aftn Tue along leading edge of mid level trough.
Given attendant speed max nr 80kts and focused ascent plume likely
to see some loose organization.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Tricky period stemming from tropical disturbance developing through
the northern Gomex and eventual northward progression into the mid
MS/lower OH valley late period.

Start of the period features newd progression of mean troughing
through se Canada and upstream height rises across the lakes. More
summer like weather expected as a result as sw flow deepens across
the area swd of next vigorous disturbance amplifying through srn
Canada dys 4-5 (Thu/Fri) with active w-e oriented frontal zone
aligned through the srn lakes/OH valley. In absence of a more
concerted model consensus at this range will generally follow
blended guidance in lieu of a more compelling solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

An upper level disturbance combined with cold air aloft this
afternoon will sct showers/storms this afternoon.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JT/Skipper
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...T

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
434 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-200845-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
434 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 /334 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms today...mainly this afternoon and
early evening. An isolated strong storm is possible with small hail
and gusty winds. Widespread severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday...and at times from
Wednesday night through Sunday. It is too early to determine the risk
for severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-200845-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
434 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms today. An isolated strong storm
with small hail and gusty winds is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday...and at times from
Wednesday night through Sunday. It is too early to determine the risk
for severe weather.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
159 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

INZ018-026-027-032>034-OHZ015-016-024-191830-
Jay-Blackford-Adams-Allen-Wells-Grant-Putnam-Van Wert-Paulding-
159 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN...
EAST CENTRAL GRANT...BLACKFORD...WELLS...ADAMS...JAY...WEST CENTRAL
PUTNAM...SOUTHERN PAULDING AND VAN WERT COUNTIES...

At 158 PM EDT, radar indicated a broken line of strong thunderstorms
extending from 7 miles northeast of Ossian to near Upland. Movement
was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Van Wert, Bluffton, Decatur, Portland, Hartford City, Berne, Upland,
Ossian, Montpelier, Geneva, Monroeville, Convoy, Ottoville, Monroe,
Ohio City, Pennville, Westchester, Center, Middletown and Middlebury.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 12 and 15.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana near mile marker 258.

LAT...LON 4046 8556 4065 8538 4065 8534 4071 8534
      4101 8506 4102 8425 4073 8452 4073 8480
      4042 8480 4035 8487
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 273DEG 44KT 4095 8505 4052 8544

FISHER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
209 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

INZ007-009-018-OHZ001-004-015-191900-
Allen-De Kalb-Steuben-Defiance-Williams-Paulding-
209 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN...
NORTHEASTERN ALLEN...EASTERN DE KALB...NORTHWESTERN DEFIANCE...
WESTERN PAULDING AND SOUTHWESTERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES...

At 208 PM EDT, radar indicated a broken line of strong thunderstorms
extending from near Hamilton to near Grabill to near New
Haven. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms. Brief, but torrential rainfall will occur with this line of
storms.

Locations impacted include...
New Haven, Auburn, Bryan, Montpelier, Hicksville, Butler, Paulding,
Waterloo, Edgerton, Antwerp, Hamilton, Woodburn, Payne, Grabill,
Edon, St. Joe, Holiday City, Edgerton In Williams County, West
Jefferson and Leo-cedarville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 469 between mile markers 16 and 26.
 Interstate 69 in Indiana between mile markers 341 and 342.

LAT...LON 4161 8456 4119 8449 4102 8455 4101 8504
      4122 8501 4156 8506
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 273DEG 15KT 4149 8497 4122 8493 4100 8500

FISHER

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