Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
235 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

Scattered showers and storms will continue across northern Indiana
and northwest Ohio through the evening. A few of these storms may
produce damaging winds and heavy rain but any severe threat is
expected to remain isolated. A few afternoon showers and storms are
possible again tomorrow but no severe weather is anticipated. Highs
tomorrow will still be around 80 but cooler and drier conditions are
expected for the rest of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

As earlier feared, surface dewpoints struggling to climb out of the
low/mid 60s, far from most raw guidance. This is likely due to deep
mixing/high sun angle and limited agricultural evapotranspiration
this early in the season. SPC/RAP mesoanalysis does show around 2000
J/kg SBCAPE to our SW, driven mainly by temps soaring near 90F. This
has eroded weak cap in place and sporadic pulse convection is firing
along old differential heating boundary. Convection is still
struggling some though given lack of low level moisture. DCAPE is
however climbing to around 1000 J/kg with steep low level lapse
rates and RAP is insistent on better moisture pooling/instability
later this afternoon. Still think an isolated strong/severe storm
is possible during the late afternoon and early evening but
coverage and intensity appear limited. Damaging wind gusts by far
the only real threat but some brief heavy rain is also possible.
Convection will continue to fester across our southern CWA through
most of the evening/early overnight but expect any isolated
severe threat to wind down around sunset. Entirely dry conditions
not expected until early Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

Very little impactful weather to discuss in the long term period.
Passing wave will merge with James Bay upper low and form a
seasonably strong cutoff/closed low over the eastern Great Lakes
through at least midweek. Trend over the past few model cycles has
been a slightly more westward location of upper low, increasing the
influence on our area's weather. A couple of vorticity spokes will
rotate around the upper low and, combined with relatively cool temps
aloft, may support a the chance for a few showers and storms. The
first chance, driven mainly by residual low level moisture and
diurnal heating, will arrive tomorrow. Some weak low level
convergence along secondary cold front structure but overall forcing
is weak and precip mainly supported by steep-ish lapse rates. Not
steep enough to generate any substantial instability/strong updrafts
but a few showers possible and isolated thunder can't be entirely
ruled out. Best chances will be in the eastern CWA.

Second chance for showers arrives Tue afternoon with loss of low
level moisture being compensated for by better mid/upper level
curvature. A few showers possible, mainly east of I-69, but thunder
chances appear even lower and not worth adding a mention. No impact
expected. Some non-zero chance for isolated sprinkles in our far
E/SE Wed/Thur but upper low is pulling away by then with shortwave
ridging and dry conditions expected. Next decent chance of rain not
until Friday afternoon when next shortwave/cold front arrives.

Cooler temps probably the main story. Predominate northerly flow and
at least some cloud cover will keep highs on the cool side of climo.
850mb temps tank to around 5C in the core of the thermal trough late
Tue/Wed. Expect highs around 70F during this time, slowly rebounding
to upper 70s by the end of the week. Dewpoints on Tues and Wed will
also likely drop back into the 40s, leading to a refreshing feel.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

Remnant outflow boundary from earlier morning convection across
the southern Great Lakes has provided focal point for scattered
shower/thunderstorm development early this afternoon
west/southwest of KFWA where sfc temperatures have warmed into the
mid/upper 80s. Expecting these scattered showers/storms to
overspread Fort Wayne terminal through 22Z. Given upstream trends
, moderate amount of peak diurnal instability, and broad low
level confluence did opt to include short duration tempo TSRA
mention at KFWA in the 19Z-21Z timeframe and will assess trends
whether an extension to this timeframe is needed over next hour or
two for the late afternoon and/or early evening hours. Threat of
rain/thunderstorms appears a bit more questionable at KSBN and
have continue to omit with this TAF issuance. Thunder chances
diminish at KFWA after 00Z tonight with dry weather through
remainder of this period. Winds to shift northwest late
tonight/early Monday morning behind a cool front with mainly VFR
conditions through the period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Marsili

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
400 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-050800-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-
Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-
Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
400 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 /300 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected, mainly this afternoon and this
evening. A few of the storms may be severe, especially across
northern Indiana and northwest Ohio, with damaging winds the main
threat. Heavy downpours may also accompany the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance of thunderstorms east of I69 Monday afternoon.
Severe storms are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and this evening.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-050800-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
400 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected today. The storms could contain
strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Winds and waves are expected to be hazardous for small craft on
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003-MIZ077-050800-
La Porte-Berrien-
400 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 /300 AM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Michigan
and northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Isolated
severe storms are possible with damaging winds the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Dangerous swimming conditions due to high waves and rip currents are
expected on Lake Michigan beaches Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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