Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
805 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 410 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

Some scattered showers and isolated storms are expected this
evening, primarily along and south of Route 24. Noticeably cooler
air will then filter in overnight behind a cold front. Highs on
Friday will run about 15 to 20 degrees colder than today. Rain
chances return for the weekend as the frontal band lifts back
northward, with the best chances Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

Corridor of 1000-1500 j/kg along with effective deep layer shear
of 30 knots with convection starting to fire amid prior robust
roll/cu streets. Lack of significant severe parameters, low level
forcing stabilizing boundary layer beyond 00 UTC and overall mid
level height rises. Upstream cold front attendant to dampening
yoop mid level vortex to bring substantially cooler albeit shallow
boundary layer south of cwa by daybreak Friday. Ensuing shower
chances on flank of return/elevated warm air advection
wing/especially southwest third to half cwa but not expected to be
widespread/robust until much later in weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

As greater mid/upper level support lifts out of central Rockies
and into Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley expect more fervor to
moisture return/destabilization for greater coverage of shra/tsra
Sat afternoon into Sat night. Drier/cooler behind second cold
frontal passage to start early next week followed by a strong
northern stream wave to redig cyclone farther south over southern
portions of Upper Great Lakes into Lower Ohio Valley. A bit more
selective with thunder chances, relegated to lesser slight chances
Tuesday afternoon with lesser low level lapse rates thereafter in
deeply cool/stacked system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 805 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

Last in a series of storms will work across the KFWA airfield
thorugh 0030Z. Otherwise upstream stratiform shra
Upstream showers may extend through 01Z yet line continues to sag
swd and with diurnal instability waning...will continue to weaken
with time.

Elsewhere lake breeze had composited in with sfc cold front dropping
through nrn IN with rapid veering in its wake. Front xpcd to stall
through srn IN overnight and then begin mixing back north on Fri
ahead of potent upstream disturbance over the srn plains. As such
VFR conditions will hold through the period although shallow over
running Fri am likely to yield a lower bound VFR bkn stratocu deck.
Winds will continue to veer to easterly on Fri and stay aob 10 kts.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Murphy
LONG TERM...Murphy
AVIATION...T

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
417 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-190830-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
417 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017 /317 AM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Southwest winds will gust in the 30 to 40 mph range for most
locations this afternoon with a few gusts up to 45 mph across
Michigan.

Thunderstorms are possible this evening. A few of these storms could
produce isolated damaging wind gusts...mainly along and south of
highway 24.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible again Saturday into Sunday. Severe weather
is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-190830-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
417 AM EDT Thu May 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hazardous conditions for small craft will continue through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Hazardous conditions for small craft will persist through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday into early Sunday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1141 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

INZ023-024-032-190415-
Wabash-Miami-Grant-
1141 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WABASH...
NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND SOUTHERN MIAMI COUNTIES...

At 1141 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bunker Hill,
or near Grissom Afb, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Grissom Afb, Sweetser, Bunker Hill, La Fontaine, Miami,
Converse, Amboy, Bennetts Switch, Mier, Jalapa, Santa Fe, Wawpecong,
Somerset and Treaty.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4056 8586 4057 8587 4056 8616 4066 8617
      4073 8574 4056 8567
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 266DEG 24KT 4062 8612

MARSILI

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