Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1122 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 453 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Showers and thunderstorms are expected in the area today and
tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the Southern
Plains. There is a risk of severe storms, especially across
southern portions of the area this afternoon and this evening.
Showers will taper off from west to east Friday as the low
departs. High pressure will build into the Midwest Saturday
providing fair weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Forecast for this aftn/eve on track with some concern for
isolated severe storms mainly southeast of US 24 between 20-02z as
sfc warm front draped across southern IL-southwest IN mixes north
to near our far southern zones late aftn/eve. 0-3km helicity of
300-500 m2/s2 and deep layer shear in excess of 40 knots favorable
near this boundary by this time, though sfc/mixed layer buoyancy
remains uncertain with latest NAM CAPE progs likely a little too
aggressive with MLCAPE's in excess of 1000 j/kg. Favor the more
stable HRRR progs given extensive cloud cover and lower sfc
dewpoints (mid-upper 50s) when compared to the NAM. As a result
expect this to be a rather messy convective event southeast of US
24. With that said cannot rule out an isolated severe storm with
brief tornado, small hail, and damaging winds the primary threats
if any low centroid/line segments organize. Cool and occasionally
wet with embedded thunder elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 453 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

A vigorous upper level low was centered over eastern Kansas early
this morning. This system will move east and track north of the
Ohio Valley Friday. Several factors appear to be coming together
for the potential for severe storms over the forecast area today
and early tonight. A warm front will move north today and should
be close to Highway 30 by late afternoon. A cool east flow north
of the front off Lake Erie will accentuate the front. Increasing
instability combined with increasing low level shear will enhance
the chances for strong to severe storms including large hail,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes along and south of the
front. The best chances for severe storms is from mid afternoon
through this evening. Precipitable water values are still expected
to approach climatological maxes of 1.25 for this time of year.
Rainfall amounts by the time rain ends Friday should range
between 0.75 inches over northwest Ohio to 1.25 inches over
northwest Indiana. Lingering rain will diminish Friday as the low
moves east and high pressure builds across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 453 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Two more rounds of rain are on the horizon as more upper level
systems move across the area next week. Rain is expected to
develop by late Sunday and continue into Monday with the arrival
of next system. After a break Tuesday, more rain is likely
Wednesday. Thermal profiles favor all rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Low pressure over MO expected to lift slowly ne into nw OH by 12z
Fri. Initial cluster of showers and tstms in low level theta-e
advection regime were lifting ne of nrn IN attm but broad isent
lift and upr level divergence along with now moist airmass in
place should keep at least sct shra/ts going through the day and
into this eve. Brief mvfr/ifr conditions likely with heavier
shra/ts and there is also a risk of hail and gusty winds accompanying
the storms, mainly this aftn/eve. Otrws, flight conditions
expected to grdly lower to mvfr/ifr at SBN today while FWA remains
predominantly vfr as the low tracks ne between the two terminals.
As the low passes tonight the lower flight conditions should
advect se into FWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

UPDATE...Steinwedel
SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...JT

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
539 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-310945-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
539 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 /439 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected today and early tonight. Severe storms
are possible, especially south of a line from Winamac to Fort Wayne
to Ottawa. Large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are all
possible. Locally heavy rainfall may cause some minor flooding in low
lying areas and rises on creeks and rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional rainfall early next week may bring the chance of local
flooding and rises on rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early tonight.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-310945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
539 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Small craft advisory conditions are expected through mid afternoon.
There is also a chance for thunderstorms today and this evening. The
storms are not expected to become severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Small craft advisory conditions are likely Friday into Friday
evening.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
957 AM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FAIR PLAIN              42.08N 86.45W
03/30/2017  M1.00 INCH       BERRIEN            MI   PUBLIC

            SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
137 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

INZ018-026-027-301800-
Adams-Allen-Wells-
137 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN ALLEN...NORTHEASTERN
WELLS AND NORTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

At 136 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Markle, or near
Ossian, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Wayne, New Haven, Bluffton, Ossian, Monroeville, Markle,
Middletown, Zanesville, Uniondale, Nine Mile, Magley, Yoder, Poe,
Murray, Hessen Cassel, Maples, North Oaks, Tocsin, Hoagland and
Kingsland.

This includes INTERSTATE 469 between MILE MARKERs 0 and 6, and
between MILE MARKERs 9 and 19.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4070 8526 4080 8534 4088 8534 4113 8510
      4095 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 224DEG 43KT 4083 8525

NWS