River Flood Warning 3, NWS Northern Indiana

214 
WGUS83 KIWX 130209
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
909 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...
 
  Eel River at North Manchester affecting Cass...Kosciusko...Miami...
  Wabash AND Whitley COUNTIES 
  Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville affecting Allen...De Kalb AND
  Defiance COUNTIES 
  Tiffin River near Stryker affecting Defiance...Fulton AND Williams 
  COUNTIES 
 
.Recent heavy rainfall has caused the rivers to rise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC017-085-103-169-183-140209-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170115T0130Z/
/NMCI3.1.ER.170112T1849Z.170113T1200Z.170114T0130Z.NO/
909 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Eel River at North Manchester
* UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
* At 7 PM Thursday the stage was 10.2 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to a crest near 10.7 feet around  7 
  AM Friday January 13 and fall below flood stage around  8 PM Friday
  January 13.
* At 11.0 feet...Flood water nears the lumber company and trailer 
  court on south Mill Street.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 8635 4097 8592 4102 8577 4099 8577
      4087 8599 4072 8631             

$$

INC003-033-OHC039-140209-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0003.170113T1200Z-170117T1200Z/
/NVLI3.1.ER.170113T1200Z.170113T1200Z.170116T1200Z.NO/
909 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville
* FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY MORNING.
* At 7 PM Thursday the stage was 11.3 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near flood stage around  7 AM 
  Friday January 13.
* At 12.0 feet...DeKalb County Road 42 about 3 miles northeast of 
  Newville floods. Agricultural and low lands flood along the St. 
  Joseph River to the Cedarville Reservoir.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 8498 4140 8481 4139 8478 4123 8493


$$

OHC039-051-171-140209-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170117T1930Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.170112T2255Z.170113T1200Z.170116T1930Z.NO/
909 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Tiffin River near Stryker
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* At 8 PM Thursday the stage was 11.2 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to a crest near 11.8 feet around  7 
  AM Friday January 13 and fall below flood stage around  2 PM Monday
  January 16.
* At 12.0 feet...Portions of State Route 66 flood north of Archbold.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 8444 4149 8446 4159 8439 4159 8429
      4130 8438                       

$$

133 
WGUS83 KIWX 131608
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1108 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...
 
  Tiffin River near Stryker affecting Defiance...Fulton AND Williams 
  COUNTIES 
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers... 

  Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville affecting Allen...De Kalb 
  AND Defiance COUNTIES 
 
.Recent heavy rainfall has caused the rivers to rise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC003-033-OHC039-141608-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170117T1200Z/
/NVLI3.1.ER.170114T0000Z.170114T0000Z.170116T1200Z.NO/
1108 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* At 10 AM Friday the stage was 11.9 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to near flood stage around 7 PM 
  Friday January 13.
* At 12.0 feet...DeKalb County Road 42 about 3 miles northeast of 
  Newville floods. Agricultural and low lands flood along the St. 
  Joseph River to the Cedarville Reservoir.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 8498 4140 8481 4139 8478 4123 8493


$$

OHC039-051-171-141608-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170118T0000Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.170112T2255Z.170115T1200Z.170117T0000Z.NO/
1108 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Tiffin River near Stryker
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* At 10 AM Friday the stage was 11.6 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is cresting at 11.6 feet and will fall below 
  flood stage around 7 PM Monday January 16.
* At 12.0 feet...Portions of State Route 66 flood north of Archbold.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 8444 4149 8446 4159 8439 4159 8429
      4130 8438                       

$$

823 
WGUS83 KIWX 140231
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
931 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...
 
  Tiffin River near Stryker affecting Defiance...Fulton AND Williams 
  COUNTIES 
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers... 

  Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville affecting Allen...De Kalb 
  AND Defiance COUNTIES 
 
.Recent heavy rainfall has caused the rivers to rise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC003-033-OHC039-150231-
/O.CON.KIWX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170117T1200Z/
/NVLI3.1.ER.170113T2030Z.170114T0600Z.170116T1200Z.NO/
931 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville
* UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.
* At 8 PM Friday the stage was 12.1 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to a crest near 12.1 feet around  1 
  AM Sunday January 15 and fall below flood stage around  7 AM Monday
  January 16.
* At 12.0 feet...DeKalb County Road 42 about 3 miles northeast of 
  Newville floods. Agricultural and low lands flood along the St. 
  Joseph River to the Cedarville Reservoir.


&&

LAT...LON 4126 8498 4140 8481 4139 8478 4123 8493


$$

OHC039-051-171-150230-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170118T0600Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.170112T2255Z.170115T1200Z.170117T0600Z.NO/
931 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Tiffin River near Stryker
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* At 9 PM Friday the stage was 11.8 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to a crest near 12.4 feet around  7 
  AM Sunday January 15 and fall below flood stage around  1 AM 
  Tuesday January 17.
* At 12.0 feet...Portions of State Route 66 flood north of Archbold.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 8444 4149 8446 4159 8439 4159 8429
      4130 8438                       

$$

440 
WGUS83 KIWX 141451
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
951 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...
 
  Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville affecting Allen...De Kalb AND
  Defiance COUNTIES 
  Tiffin River near Stryker affecting Defiance...Fulton AND Williams 
  COUNTIES 
 

.Rain that has fallen in the past week has caused the rivers to rise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC003-033-OHC039-151451-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170117T0600Z/
/NVLI3.1.ER.170113T2030Z.170115T0000Z.170116T0600Z.NO/
951 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville
* UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* At 9 AM Saturday the stage was 12.1 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to a crest near 12.2 feet around 7 
  PM Saturday January 14 and fall below flood stage around 1 AM 
  Monday January 16.
* At 12.0 feet...DeKalb County Road 42 about 3 miles northeast of 
  Newville floods. Agricultural and low lands flood along the St. 
  Joseph River to the Cedarville Reservoir.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 8498 4140 8481 4139 8478 4123 8493


$$

OHC039-051-171-151451-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170118T0000Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.170112T2255Z.170115T0600Z.170117T0000Z.NO/
951 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Tiffin River near Stryker
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* At 9 AM Saturday the stage was 12.0 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to a crest near 12.3 feet around 7 
  AM Sunday January 15 and fall below flood stage around 7 PM Monday
  January 16.
* At 12.0 feet...Portions of State Route 66 flood north of Archbold.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 8444 4149 8446 4159 8439 4159 8429
      4130 8438                       

$$

424 
WGUS83 KIWX 150217
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
917 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...
 
  Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville affecting Allen...De Kalb AND
  Defiance COUNTIES 
  Tiffin River near Stryker affecting Defiance...Fulton AND Williams 
  COUNTIES 
 
.Rain that fell in the past week cased the rivers to rise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC003-033-OHC039-160217-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170117T1800Z/
/NVLI3.1.ER.170113T2030Z.170115T0600Z.170116T1800Z.NO/
917 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville
* UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* At 8 PM Saturday the stage was 12.2 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to a crest near 12.2 feet around  1 
  PM Sunday January 15 and fall below flood stage around  1 PM Monday
  January 16.
* At 12.0 feet...DeKalb County Road 42 about 3 miles northeast of 
  Newville floods. Agricultural and low lands flood along the St. 
  Joseph River to the Cedarville Reservoir.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.0 feet which occurred 
  on Dec 30 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 8498 4140 8481 4139 8478 4123 8493


$$

OHC039-051-171-160217-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170118T0200Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.170112T2255Z.170115T1200Z.170117T0200Z.NO/
917 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Tiffin River near Stryker
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* At 8 PM Saturday the stage was 12.3 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will rise to a crest near 12.4 feet around  7 
  AM Sunday January 15 and fall below flood stage around  9 PM Monday
  January 16.
* At 12.0 feet...Portions of State Route 66 flood north of Archbold.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.9 feet which occurred 
  on Jun 1 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 8444 4149 8446 4159 8439 4159 8429
      4130 8438                       

$$

428 
WGUS83 KIWX 151508
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1008 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...
 
  Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville affecting Allen...De Kalb AND
  Defiance COUNTIES 
  Tiffin River near Stryker affecting Defiance...Fulton AND Williams 
  COUNTIES 
 
.Recent and forecasted rainfall will cause continued minor flooding on
some local river basins. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC003-033-OHC039-161508-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170117T0800Z/
/NVLI3.1.ER.170113T2030Z.170115T1430Z.170116T0800Z.NO/
1008 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville
* UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was 12.2 feet and steady.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will fall below the 12.0 foot flood stage 
  around  3 AM Monday January 16.
* At 12.0 feet...DeKalb County Road 42 about 3 miles northeast of 
  Newville floods. Agricultural and low lands flood along the St. 
  Joseph River to the Cedarville Reservoir.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.0 feet which occurred 
  on Dec 30 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 8498 4140 8481 4139 8478 4123 8493


$$

OHC039-051-171-161508-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170118T0400Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.170112T2255Z.170115T1100Z.170117T0400Z.NO/
1008 AM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Tiffin River near Stryker
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was 12.4 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will fall below the 11.0 foot flood stage 
  around 11 PM Monday January 16.
* At 12.0 feet...Portions of State Route 66 flood north of Archbold.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.9 feet which occurred 
  on Jun 1 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 8444 4149 8446 4159 8439 4159 8429
      4130 8438                       

$$

883 
WGUS83 KIWX 160151
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
851 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

...The Flood Warning has been extended for the following rivers...
 
  Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville affecting Allen...De Kalb AND
  Defiance COUNTIES 
  Tiffin River near Stryker affecting Defiance...Fulton AND Williams 
  COUNTIES 
 
.Recent rainfall has caused rises on rivers and forecasted rainfall will continue to cause rises on rivers for the next few days.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Never drive vehicles through flooded areas. The water may be too deep
to allow safe passage. Never allow children to play in or near flood 
waters. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media for further 
statements and updated forecasts.

Detailed river forecasts and more information can be found on the 
internet at www.weather.gov/iwx under Rivers and Lakes. 

All times are in Eastern Time. This statement will be updated in 
about 24 hours or sooner if necessary.

&&

INC003-033-OHC039-170151-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170117T0600Z/
/NVLI3.1.ER.170113T2030Z.170115T1630Z.170116T0600Z.NO/
851 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville
* UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
* At 8 PM Sunday the stage was 12.1 feet and steady.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will fall below the 12.0 foot flood stage 
  around  1 AM Monday January 16.
* At 12.0 feet...DeKalb County Road 42 about 3 miles northeast of 
  Newville floods. Agricultural and low lands flood along the St. 
  Joseph River to the Cedarville Reservoir.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.0 feet which occurred 
  on Dec 30 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 8498 4140 8481 4139 8478 4123 8493


$$

OHC039-051-171-170151-
/O.EXT.KIWX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170118T0600Z/
/STRO1.1.ER.170112T2255Z.170115T1100Z.170117T0600Z.NO/
851 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

 The Flood Warning has been extended for
  The Tiffin River near Stryker
* UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* At 8 PM Sunday the stage was 12.2 feet and steady.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will fall below the 11.0 foot flood stage 
  around  1 AM Tuesday January 17.
* At 12.0 feet...Portions of State Route 66 flood north of Archbold.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.9 feet which occurred 
  on Jun 1 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 8444 4149 8446 4159 8439 4159 8429
      4130 8438                       

$$

331 
WGUS83 KIWX 161858
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
158 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers...
 
  Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville affecting Allen...De Kalb AND
  Defiance COUNTIES
 
This will be the last statement for this high water event.

INC003-033-OHC039-161928-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170117T0600Z/
/NVLI3.1.ER.170113T2030Z.170115T1630Z.170116T1200Z.NO/
158 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Saint Joseph River Ohio above Newville
* At 1 PM Monday the stage was 11.9 feet
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage Monday morning.
* Forecast...The river will fall to near 11.7 feet around 7 PM 
  Monday January 16.

&&

LAT...LON 4126 8498 4140 8481 4139 8478 4123 8493


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
354 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

Dry conditions are expected tonight through Friday as a ridge of
high pressure builds into the area behind a cold front. Colder
conditions will be in store for tonight through the weekend. The
next disturbance will increase chances of freezing rain late
Friday night into Saturday morning, mainly south of Route 30 where
some ice accumulation is possible. A stronger system will
approach the area Sunday night through Tuesday. Precipitation may
begin as freezing rain Sunday night into Monday morning before
changing to rain. The Monday through Wednesday period will feature
above normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

A period of quiet weather in the short term which will be
characterized by colder, more seasonable temperatures.

A surge of much drier low level air will continue to overspread the
forecast area from northwest to southeast this evening with an
eventual decrease in low cloud cover. Could still have a few
scattered flurries or patches of very light freezing drizzle over
the next few hours, mainly downwind of Lake Michigan. No
significant impacts are expected. Mid/high clouds should increase
tonight downstream of broad western CONUS. Much cooler temps for
tonight behind the front with loss of low clouds helping temp
drops. Low levels should remain relatively well mixed however, so
will maintain lows dropping into the lower to mid 20s.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow with upstream broad western
CONUS confluence zone allowing for persistent mid clouds. A weak
reinforcing mid level trough across the Great Lakes region on Friday
will allow low level cold advection to persist limiting highs from
the upper 20s north to lower 30s south.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

An active long term period still looks to be in store for the
Friday night through early next week period with potential of a
few periods of ice accumulation for the weekend, and higher
rain chances Monday-Tuesday.

Complex upper flow pattern to begin the long term period Friday
night with split flow across western CONUS. Cut-off upper low will
linger across southwest CONUS through the weekend, with a series of
northern stream waves expected to track across north central
CONUS/Great Lakes. One of these more distinct waves should eject
out of of the northern Plains Friday evening with an eventual
more veered low level flow developing across the mid MS Valley. An
upstream broad confluence zone associated with this split pattern
will continue to provide strong downstream baroclinicity, which
will allow for periodic enhancement to isentropic/frontogenesis
forcing. Indications suggest at least the potential of a swath of
freezing rain to develop from the mid MS Valley eastward across
approximately southern half of the area late Friday night into
Saturday morning. Given tight thermal packing/moisture gradient
and the fact just subtle changes in upstream forcing will modulate
isentropic/fgen fields, confidence is still somewhat on the low
side in how far north more substantial freezing rain will make it
Fri night/early Saturday. Consider going with some likely PoPs for
freezing rain across the far south for this period, but given
continued spread in guidance will keep at high chance level.
Potential does exist for ice accumulation for this period, and may
eventually need an advisory across the south.

Forecast confidence continues to be on the low side for Saturday
afternoon through Sunday afternoon with distinct possibility that
lull could develop in freezing rain chances with passage of the
initial northern stream wave on Saturday. Next higher potential
impact period still appears to be Sunday night-Monday morning as cut-
off PV anomaly across southwest CONUS begins to emerge across the TX
panhandle. A downstream ramp up of low level jet and strong
thermal/moisture advective push will accompany this evolution with
additional synoptic support via strengthening upper divergence in
western Great Lakes right entrance region of upper jet streak.
Thermal profiles should support a period of freezing rain before
transitioning to rain from southwest to northeast late Sunday night-
Monday morning.

Rain will persist through Monday-early Tuesday as the Texas upper
trough ejects northeast with another period of anomalous PWATS (in
excess of an inch) advecting into the area. Will have to watch rain
amounts this period with a potential of some renewed river rises.
Otherwise, bulk of the long term period should be above normal
temperature wise, with no immediate arctic intrusions on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

Low level frontal zone will continue to shift southeast of the
terminals through the afternoon. Drier air advecting across
northern Indiana has resulted in diminishment of rain/drizzle,
with just another hour or two of drizzle anticipated at KFWA. IFR
cigs to begin the period will improve to lower end MVFR after 20Z
with eventual transition to VFR this evening and increasing mid
level clouds. Post-frontal northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are
expected this afternoon, and around 10 knots tonight. Quiet
aviation weather is expected on Friday as a strong 1045 mb high
settles across the Great Lakes region allowing winds to veer more
northeast toward the end of the period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Marsili
LONG TERM...Marsili
AVIATION...Marsili

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
253 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-132000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...
LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...
LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
BASS LAKE...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...PLYMOUTH...
BREMEN...CULVER...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...MONON...BROOKSTON...
LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...HARTFORD CITY...
MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...
ST. JOSEPH...FAIR PLAIN...BENTON HEIGHTS...BUCHANAN...PAW PAW LAKE...
DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...
WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...
JONESVILLE...LITCHFIELD...BRYAN...EDGERTON...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
SWANTON...DELTA...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...
DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...ANTWERP...PAYNE...OTTAWA...
LEIPSIC...COLUMBUS GROVE...CONTINENTAL...PANDORA...VAN WERT...
OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE
253 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017 /153 PM CST THU JAN 12 2017/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RISES ON SEVERAL RIVERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. SOME ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE.

FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-132000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
253 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX