Gale Watch 5, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion...Correction
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
229 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 227 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

Dry conditions and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are
expected into tonight and Sunday as an upper level ridge builds
in. Lows tonight will range between the mid 20s and low 30s...with
highs on Sunday well into the 50s as winds turn southerly.
Monday into early Tuesday will feature increasing chances for
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Highs on Monday will
reach to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

Quiet tonight into Sunday as an upper level ridge builds in
overhead. At the sfc southeast winds will veer more southerly
tomorrow sending temps will into the 50s to near 60 by Sunday
afternoon in wake of a warm front. Overall dearth of
moisture/forcing with this frontal passage will ensure dry wx and
mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

Increasing/persistent low level south-southwest flow will finally
tap into some GOM moisture Monday into Monday night. Precipitable
water values will increase to near 1 inch and surface dewpoints into
the 50s. This flux of deeper moisture within broad LLJ/corridor of
isentropic ascent will result in increasing clouds/winds and chances
for showers on Monday, though concerned going high PoPs on Monday
may be a little overdone given no obvious larger scale forcing
mechanism. This changes later Monday night or early Tuesday
(models still differ on exact timing) as strongly forced cold
front trails though under deep low emerging over south-central
Canada. A line of heavier showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
should accompany the front as it progresses through.

Breezy/cooler/mainly dry conditions are expected post-frontal into
the middle of the week. Far north track of occlusion to near Hudson
Bay will allow colder airmass and wrap around moisture within larger
scale trough axis to pass off to the north...likely resulting in
dry conditions and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Confidence
in details lowers by Friday and Saturday as flow pattern flattens
and disturbances track east near a frontal zone over or just
north of the local area. The result (for now) is renewed chances
for showers and above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

Shearing out vort max movg se across central OH valley with upr
ridge building into IN in its wake will result in clouds over the
area grdly dissipating this aftn/eve. Ceilings vfr at sbn/fwa but
mvfr just to the sw where accumulating snow fell this morning.
Expect these lower clouds will stay sw of the terminals this aftn
but carried sct015 for the first few hours just in case. Dry
airmass will dominate the rest of the taf period allowing for
contd vfr conditions. Rather brisk ESE winds behind strong sfc
high pressure ridge over se canada and the ern u.s. will grdly
veer to a more southerly direction as the ridge moves slowly east
and a trof moves into the high plains.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...JT

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1213 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-051715-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
1213 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017 /1113 AM CST Sat Mar 4 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-051715-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
1213 PM EST Sat Mar 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Winds of 15 to 25 knots are possible tonight. A small craft advisory
may be needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Conditions hazardous to small craft are likely at times from
Sunday through Wednesday night. Strong south to southwest winds are
expected Monday and Monday night. Strong west to northwest winds are
expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday night. There is a chance
for gale force winds to develop during these periods as well.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx