Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS Northern Indiana

504 
WGUS63 KIWX 112051
FFAIWX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
451 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

INZ020-022>027-032>034-112200-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-170712T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-
Jay-
Including the cities of Monticello, Monon, Brookston, Logansport,
Royal Center, Peru, Grissom AFB, Mexico, Wabash, 
North Manchester, Huntington, Roanoke, Bluffton, Ossian, Decatur,
Berne, Marion, Gas City, Upland, Hartford City, Montpelier, 
Portland, and Dunkirk
451 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of northern Indiana has been
cancelled. The immediate threat of heavy rainfall has ended. More
rainfall is possible Wednesday and Thursday and this could lead to
more flooding problems across the area. 

Please refer to flood warning products for information on current
flooding. Remember, do not drive through flooded areas. Turn
around, don't drown. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
624 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Additional showers and storms are possible this afternoon and
evening...mainly south of highway 30. A few strong storms are
possible but widespread severe weather is not expected. Main area of
storms will then focus over Michigan on Wednesday with hot and humid
conditions for our area. Highs will be near 90 on Wednesday with
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. Storms return Wednesday night
into Thursday with additional strong to severe weather possible.
Much quieter conditions are expected after Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and This Evening)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Convection finally dying off given some weak subsidence and subtle
dry air advection behind exiting MCV. Composite outflow and lake
aggregate surface high may be enough to nudge boundary south of our
CWA but less confident in our CWA fully escaping another round of
storms with latest 00Z guidance. Morning through early afternoon
should remain largely dry but diurnal heating working in concert
with excellent low level moisture (surface dewpoints possibly
approaching mid 70s) will lead to moderate destabilization across
our southern counties by late afternoon. 00Z NAM (and to a lesser
extent the GFS) is too aggressive with raw SBCAPE, stemming from
surface dewpoints in upper 70s. However, even modified soundings
still give 2-3K J/kg in our far southern zones with midlevel lapse
rates at or above 6 C/km. SCT/NUM storms likely after 18Z along
stalled boundary given approach of convectively enhanced shortwave
presently ejecting out of the High Plains but question remains if it
will impact our CWA or remain just south. Given lack of strong
signal for subsidence/high pressure or meaningful theta-e reduction
south of US-30 am inclined to raise PoPs a little for our far
southern counties. Wind/shear profiles are less supportive for
organized convection but isolated damaging winds and hail are
certainly possible, especially given degree of instability. Brief
heavy rain also possible given high moisture content but hi-res
CAM's suggest a quick S/SE movement that should prevent significant
amounts. Of course areas impacted with heavy rain yesterday will be
much more susceptible to localized flooding but this threat will be
isolated with relatively low confidence that storms will even impact
our CWA. Will therefore hold off on another flash flood watch. All
of this applies to areas south of US-30, and mainly just our far
southern row of IN counties. Chances for any meaningful rain/storms
much lower north of US-30, though ISO/SCT pulse convection can't be
ruled out per latest HRRR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Late Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

After diurnal convection wanes this evening, focus will turn
northward and our southern counties will get a much needed break.
Moderate amplitude trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will
enter the Upper Midwest and associated backing low level flow will
send warm front through our area. Best 305-310K isentropic ascent is
focused to our north, in right rear quadrant of main jet streak
associated with Quebec vortex. Our NW zones may get clipped with a
few showers/storms but expect bulk of the activity will remain north
of our area with little to no severe threat. Same holds true for
much of the day Wed with nose of LLJ across northern MI and our CWA
in hot and capped warm sector. Expect primarily dry conditions for
our area during the day though did leave a token slight chance in
north. This will likely also be the warmest day of the week with
highs near 90F under at least partly sunny skies. Heat indices may
approach mid/upper 90s.

Chance of storms returns Wednesday night into Thursday as heights
slowly fall and send weak cold front through the region. Severe
weather possible during this time given good moisture/instability,
convergence, and modest deep-layer shear. Current timing suggests
the best chance may be on Thu. Some threat in our northern counties
Wed evening but will likely be near 06Z before activity reaches our
area with instability dropping. This may disrupt severe chances on
Thu but GFS still shows modest recovery with main front still well
upstream. Quiet and seasonably cool weather for the rest of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Stalled frontal boundary across nrn IN this morning. Some
stratus/br formed in the moist airmass in place across the area
overnight, but not as extensive as earlier anticipated, so
expecting mainly vfr conditions at the terminals this morning.
This should cont through this aftn/eve except in areas impacted by
tstms. Attm, have no mention of tstms in tafs, but some sct storms
expected to develop again this aftn, mainly south of the front
and south of the terminals. The front is expected to lift north
tonight as low pressure moves east into the upr Midwest. This may
should result in sct tstms redeveloping, but at this early
juncture, point chances too low to include mention in tafs.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JT

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
529 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017

INZ013-015-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ024-025-120930-
Pulaski-Fulton IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-
Grant-Blackford-Jay-Van Wert-Allen OH-
529 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 /429 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Widespread
severe weather is not expected but a few isolated strong storms are
possible with gusty winds and brief heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Additional storms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Severe
weather may be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003>009-012-014-016>018-LMZ043-046-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-120930-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Marshall-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-
Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-
529 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 /429 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...The Nearshore Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan...
northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms late this evening into tonight.
Severe weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Additional storms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Severe
weather may be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
443 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLOOD            ANOKA                   40.72N 86.28W
07/11/2017                   CASS               IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            U.S. ROUTE 35 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
444 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 AM     FLOOD            SPENCERVILLE            40.71N 84.35W
07/11/2017                   ALLEN              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN ALLEN
            COUNTY OHIO.

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
655 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 AM     FLOOD            DEACON                  40.63N 86.32W
07/11/2017                   CASS               IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL HIGHWAYS AND MANY COUNTY ROADS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN SOUTHERN CASS
            COUNTY. TWO ROADS WASHED OUT AND ONE BRIDGE
            COLLAPSED IN THIS AREA.

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
844 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLUMBUS GROVE          40.92N 84.06W
07/11/2017  M3.18 INCH       PUTNAM             OH   PUBLIC

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

GH