Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
157 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Showers and thunderstorms formed across the area this afternoon
and will continue moving to the northeast with hail and damaging
winds as the main threats. A cold front will move through tonight
putting the showers and storms to an end and bringing cooler and drier
air into the region for Memorial Day Monday and the early work
week. However, a shower or storm can't be ruled out later in the
day Memorial Day and then Tuesday afternoon as well as a result
of a disturbance moving through each day. Temps drop back into the
mid to upper 50s tonight before rebounding into the 70s on
Memorial Day. Highs will trend down into the mid to upper 60s for
Wednesday with the cooler air moving in behind the cold front.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1117 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Atmosphere beginning to destabilize as clouds have thinned and
diurnal heating is underway. CAMs all in decent agreement on
thunderstorms developing in the 17-20z time frame and moving out
of the east this evening. MLCAPE expected in the 1500-2500 j/kg
range with mid level lapse rates around 7c/km. Models only
showing 0-3km shear of 20-30 knots but deeper 0-6km shear more
favorable around 40 knots as upper level jet streak moves through.
Expecting broken line of storms to develop with stronger updrafts
having potential for damaging winds and large hail this afternoon
and early evening. Forecast on track but did make some minor
tweeks to pops and timing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Airmass over our area will destabilize today as an upr trof moves
east to the wrn Grtlks. This should allow tstms to develop over
wrn portions of our area early this aftn and spread east across
ern portions later this aftn. Given forecast of moderate
instability with cape apchg 1500j/kg and modest deep layer shear
near 30kt, some potential for a few storms with damaging winds and
large hail in our area. Decent mixing and a warm start to the day
should allow temps to top out in the m70s despite considerable
cloudiness and dvlpg storms/cold pools this aftn.

Storms expected to move east out of the cwa early this eve
as cdfnt moves through. WSW gradient should keep some mixing
going overnight limiting temp falls despite clearing skies with
lows expected in the m50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Upr low over srn Manitoba expected to move to the upr Grtlks Monday
and then lift slowly ne Tue/Wed. Mainly a cool/dry period, but
shrtwv's rotating around this low may cause a few showers in the
area each day. Another upr low expected to track slowly se across
srn Ontario Thu-Fri and to Quebec Saturday. Swly low level flow
should develop ahead of this system allowing for some
destabilization in our area by Fri as cdfnt approaches which may
allow tstms to develop. This front expected to move slowly south
across the cwa keeping a chc of showers in the area through
Saturday, with temps turning cooler after a brief/modest late week
warmup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017

Low pressure pushes into Michigan dragging a cold front through
the area during the afternoon. Dew points into and around 60
degrees this morning will rise into the mid 60s during the early
afternoon with ample MUCAPE and 30 kts of shear with thunderstorms
likely and strong to severe storms possible across the area. Will
include a VCTS mention from 2PM until the early overnight to cover
this. With diurnal heating, continue to expect initial MVFR CIGs
will lift into VFR into this afternoon aside from brief reductions
into MVFR as a result of thunderstorm effects. Drier air comes in
behind the front for later tonight and Memorial day allowing for
VFR conditions though an afternoon shower can't be ruled out on
Monday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Lashley
SYNOPSIS...Roller
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...Roller

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
419 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-290830-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
419 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 /319 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely today, mainly in the afternoon. Scattered
severe storms with damaging winds and large hail are possible this
afternoon. The storms may also contain locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and
Friday. Severe storms are not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-290830-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
419 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely today, mainly in the early afternoon.
Storms may contain gale force wind gusts and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday afternoon and Friday.
Severe storms are not expected.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
554 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             OHIO CITY               40.77N 84.61W
05/28/2017  E0.50 INCH       VAN WERT           OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
554 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

OHZ024-282230-
Van Wert-
554 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN VAN WERT COUNTY...

At 554 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Ohio City, or 8
miles south of Van Wert, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Van Wert, Ohio City, Middle Point, Venedocia, Elgin, Dull, Jonestown,
Monticello and Abanaka.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4073 8446 4073 8470 4083 8469 4088 8440
      4069 8440 4068 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 270DEG 21KT 4075 8461

MCS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
601 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

OHZ015-016-282230-
Putnam-Paulding-
601 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND SOUTHERN
PAULDING COUNTIES...

At 601 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Payne, or 12
miles north of Van Wert, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Paulding, Continental, Oakwood, Grover Hill, Dupont, Scott, Melrose,
Haviland, Latty, Cloverdale, Broughton, Worstville, Charloe, Tipton,
Roselms, Mandale and Briceton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4099 8471 4114 8471 4117 8430 4116 8425
      4099 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 270DEG 21KT 4104 8465

MCS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
606 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             2 SSW ANDREWS           40.83N 85.62W
05/28/2017  M0.25 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
611 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

OHZ024-025-282245-
Allen-Van Wert-
611 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN VAN WERT AND
SOUTHERN ALLEN COUNTIES...

At 611 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Spencerville In
Allen County, or 9 miles south of Delphos, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lima, Spencerville, Elida, Spencerville In Allen County, Cairo,
Yoder, Conant, Hume, Slabtown, Monticello, Rousculp, Southworth,
Needmore and Kemp.

This includes INTERSTATE 75 between MILE MARKERs 119 and 133.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4064 8411 4066 8411 4066 8422 4069 8422
      4068 8446 4078 8445 4086 8399 4064 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 272DEG 32KT 4072 8440

MCS

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