Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
222 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

Periods of rain will continue for areas mainly east of Interstate
69 through early this evening with some additional flooding
possible. Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies. Another
weak wave will bring a chance of additional light rain west of I
65 late tonight. Lows will be around 40F. Cool conditions will
persist into this weekend and early next week with mainly dry
conditions expected. Low temperatures Saturday night could dip
into the mid-upper 30s. Temperatures will drop into the low 30s
Sunday night. Sensitive vegetation will need protection from the
cold.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

Ragged but intact mid level deformation zone stretching from nrn KY
nwwd through se MI. Parent sw over nrn KY stretching attm and will
reform newd to near KCLE overnight. Thus expect a continued slow ewd
translation of diminishing deformation and end of light rain through
nw OH toward sunset.

Secondary upstream sw dropping nearly due south out of wrn Ontario
looks to steer mainly west of CWA overnight fitting within wwd
trending model guidance. Will bend/truncate pops tonight/Sat wwd to
account.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

Deep cyclone cutoff over the ern lakes Sat will elongate nwd into
Hudson Bay Sun then shift swd as primary upr low center shifts out
into the wrn Atlantic late Wed. This is a much different solution
aloft over the Great Lakes than seen in prior days and will focus
active frontal zone swwd from the cntrl plains ewd through the mid
MS valley. As such and in light of good med range consensus
agreement will drop bulk of mentionable pops mid to late period.

Regardless neg height anomaly centered near Lake Ontario will
keep steep/cold nrly feed into the OH valley intact through Mon.
Proximal location of sfc ridge axis with clear skies and
decoupling will make for several cold nights...coldest Sun night
with frost/freeze conditions likely. Headlines will no doubt come
out this weekend.

Otherwise mid level troughing persisting through the lakes will
squelch a more appreciable warmup and keep temps below normal
through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

For the most part, expect conditions to remain MVFR to VFR at both
TAF sites through the period. The only exception could be the batch
of lower cloud cover/enhanced moisture approaching KSBN from Lake
Michigan associated with an incoming wave. Since moving onshore,
cloud observations at Michigan City and Benton Harbor have gone from
VFR/MVFR to LIFR/IFR in a short period of time, with winds becoming
slightly northwesterly. Models have been slow to catch onto this
feature as far as ceilings/visibility go, so uncertainty exists
about how far inland these lower ceilings will make it-given the
drying in the wake of the exiting low pressure system to our
southeast and it's associated deformation band. At the moment, it
is steadily progressing eastward. KSBN is sitting in the region
of drying now, but is on the eastern fringe of this moisture
advection. Given lower confidence have BKN008 as a tempo through
roughly 22Z. In the wake of this moisture/trough, expect clearing
skies and VFR conditions. I am uncertain that the feature will
reach FWA, so I left it out for now. Forecasters this
afternoon/evening will need to monitor this closely for possible
amendments. Tomorrow morning we will see another small wave
approach, bringing MVFR conditions to the area. Some of the higher
resolution models are even bringing in some showers to KSBN, but
given low confidence just kept VCSH in the TAF for now.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MCD

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
213 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

INZ018-027-034-OHZ002-004-005-015-016-024-025-061000-
Allen IN-Adams-Jay-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-
Allen OH-
213 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Light to moderate rain will end by evening as flooding persisting in
flood prone areas. Please see the flood warnings issued by this
office for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Minor to moderate river flooding is likely this weekend. Please see
the latest river flood warnings issued by this office for more
information.

Patchy frost is likely Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures
are possible Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall totals and any observed
flooding.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003>009-012>017-020-022-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-061000-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-White-Cass IN-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-
213 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017 /113 PM CDT Fri May 5 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Minor river flooding is possible. Please see the latest river flood
warnings issued by this office for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Minor river flooding is possible this weekend. Please see the latest
river flood warnings issued by this office for more information.

Minor to moderate river flooding is likely this weekend. Please see
the latest river flood warnings issued by this office for more
information.

Patchy frost is likely Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures
are possible Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ023>026-032-033-061000-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Grant-Blackford-
213 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Flooding will persist in flood prone areas. Please see the flood
warnings issued by this office for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Minor to moderate river flooding is likely this weekend. Please see
the latest river flood warnings issued by this office for more
information.

Patchy frost is likely Saturday night. Near freezing temperatures
are possible Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed flooding.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-061000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
213 PM EDT Fri May 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A Gale Warning is in effect through this afternoon with conditions
hazardous to small craft persisting overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Conditions hazardous to small craft will persist through late Sunday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WILLSHIRE               40.75N 84.79W
05/05/2017  M3.10 INCH       VAN WERT           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SR-49 CLOSED NORTH OF WILLSHIRE DUE TO HIGH
            WATER FROM ST MARYS RIVER.

&&

TH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1228 PM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 PM     FLOOD            2 ESE BLUFFTON          40.73N 85.14W
05/05/2017                   WELLS              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER OVER ROAD AT RIVER RD
            AND 450 E. RIVER RD CLOSED.

&&

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