Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1231 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Low pressure over southern Iowa and the central plains will move
across the great lakes Sunday pulling a trailing cold front southeast
across Indiana.  Numerous thunderstorms will occur in a moist
unstable air mass ahead of the cold front late tonight into Sunday.
All of this will move out with the front Sunday night.

A weak upper disturbance will bring low chances of showers northern
sections Monday afternoon and widely scattered thunderstorms to
north and central sections Tuesday afternoon.

A progressive pattern with several weak upper disturbances will
occur during the latter half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...
Issued at 943 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Surface analysis late this evening shows a trough of low pressure
in place from Michigan to Nrn Missouri. GOESR shows THunderstorms
blossoming ahead of the trough over northern Illinois...pushing
eastward.

A few more hours of dry weather will be anticipated across Central
Indiana...however HRRR suggest the storms over Illinois will
propagate eastward toward Central Indiana. Favorable environment
remains over Central Indiana with dewpoints in the upper 60s and
low 70s. SPC mesoscale graphic suggests CAPE around 1500 J/KG.
Models suggest favorable lower level shear across the area
overnight developing ahead of the approaching storms. Thus will
ramp up pops overnight as storms are expected to arrive. Given
the expected rain...trended lows a bit cooler than the previous
forecast across the NW parts of the forecast area...where cooler
temps are most likely due to expected precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday Night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A cold front over southeast Indiana Sunday evening will continue
to the east as high pressure over the northern plains builds our
way.  A few showers will linger into Sunday evening over southeast
sections...then dry and cooler Sunday night and early Monday.

Models indicate a few showers over northern sections Monday
afternoon as an upper trough over the great lakes becomes a
little sharper and combined with some day time heating.  A
weak upper disturbance will bring widely scattered thunderstorms
to northern and central sections late Tuesday.

Stayed close to a MOS blend on temperatures with highs in the
upper 70s to near 80 Monday and lower 80s Tuesday. Lows will
be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

The long term begins with an upper trough stretching south through
the area from an upper low over eastern Canada. This feature will
lift northeast away from the area and allow for a flatter upper
pattern to develop and a broad upper ridge to stretch across
across the southern U.S. This will keep some chances for
thunderstorms in the forecast most of the time from Wednesday
night onward. Expect to see high temperatures climbing on Thursday
and topping out in the middle 80s to lower 90s. With the
relatively flat pattern may see those temperatures as the rule for
highs, but differences in the pattern between the ECMWF and GFS
indicate potential for dropping heights (ECMWF) and rising heights
(GFS) and thus split them to determine the current forecast with
temperatures that are a degree or two cooler than Thursday but
still mainly in the middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 18/06Z TAFs/...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017

VFR will predominate much of the TAF period, although MVFR
conditions will be possible in convection and during and shortly
after frontal passage.

MVFR conditions may occur in storms and there will likely be a
period of MVFR ceilings around frontal passage before conditions
improve back to VFR late in the period.

Winds will be southerly early in the period, and become
west/northwesterly with frontal passage. Speeds will generally be
8-12KT with a few gusts possible, especially in storms.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
733 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-182345-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
733 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Outlook: Severe thunderstorm are possible.

Hazards: Lightning, torrential rainfall, damaging winds and hail.

Timing: After 1100 PM.

Discussion: Thunderstorms will become increasingly likely over
central Indiana tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Outlook: There is a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday. Additional
threats for storms are expected Tuesday and again Thursday and
Friday. Storms will be capable of heavy rainfall...dangerous cloud to
ground lightning and gusty winds.

Discussion: Very warm, humid and unstable air will interact with a
cold front as it moves through the area Sunday with scattered
thunderstorms continuing. Additional daily threats for scattered
storms will develop Tuesday and then again for late week as a frontal
boundary sets up over the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

PUMA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1238 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

INZ030-037>039-180515-
Clinton IN-Tipton IN-Boone IN-Hamilton IN-
1238 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLINTON...NORTHERN BOONE...
NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND WESTERN TIPTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

At 1238 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles east of Lafayette to 8 miles west of
Frankfort to 9 miles northeast of Crawfordsville. Movement was east
at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Frankfort, Sheridan, Rossville, Mulberry, Kirklin, Colfax,
Sharpsville, Michigantown and Kempton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM EDT for
central and west central Indiana.

LAT...LON 4041 8631 4039 8631 4039 8628 4037 8628
      4037 8624 4040 8624 4038 8603 4022 8611
      4006 8623 4016 8670 4043 8669 4043 8662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 274DEG 49KT 4037 8665 4026 8666 4018 8682

AW/MR

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