Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
632 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A low pressure system will bring showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening and then rain and windy conditions for
Thursday. After a dry weekend, another system will bring more rain
chances for early next week. Temperatures will be below normal
Thursday and Friday, then near to above normal temperatures will
prevail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...

Issued at 331 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A complex low pressure system across southeast Missouri and
southwest Kentucky will move east this afternoon and bring showers
and thunderstorms to the area. Very warm air is entering the far
southern forecast area where it's already in the lower 70s. Lower
80s were across north central Kentucky. However, dewpoints remain
relatively low even in the warmer air.

Some uncertainty on how far north the warm air will get and even
more uncertainty on how far north the low level moisture
(higher dewpoints) will get. This will play a role on the types of
severe weather possible across the area. Will continue to monitor.

At any rate, showers and thunderstorms will move across the area
for the remainder of the afternoon. Will go likely or higher PoPs
and will use a pre-first period in the text forecast.

Tonight the surface low will move out of the area as an upper
low moves in. The upper system will have good forcing so will go
with likely or higher PoPs all areas at some point during the
night. Some of the heavier rain amounts may develop across the
northern forecast area where good deformation sets up.

Winds will increase late tonight as the pressure gradient
increases and stronger winds aloft move in. By 12Z the northwest
forecast area, and perhaps more, may be seeing some stronger wind
gusts. After collaborating with surrounding offices, decided to
start a wind advisory for the western half of the northern
forecast area at 09Z.

Model blend looks good enough for low temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Friday/...

Issued at 331 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Rain will be likely across much of the area Thursday morning with
the upper low still in the vicinity. As the low moves off to the
east during the day, chances will diminish from west to east. Will
reflect as such in the PoP forecast.

Strong winds aloft mixing down in cold advection along with a
tight pressure gradient across the forecast area will lead to
windy conditions Thursday. Across the far northern forecast area
wouldn't be surprised to see gusts near 50 mph. Will expand the
wind advisory east at 16Z to cover the remainder of the northern
two-thirds of the area. Will let the advisory run for all areas
until 00Z.

Temperatures across much of the area will have a hard time rising,
so will go closer to a blend of raw model numbers for high
temperatures rather than the warmer MOS numbers.

Chances for precipitation will continue across the eastern 3/4 of
the forecast area Thursday evening with some forcing lingering in
the area. Overnight Thursday night low PoPs will continue across
about the east third.

Temperatures will be cold aloft, and as near surface temperatures
cool during the night some snow will mix in with the rain,
especially northeast. Wouldn't rule out the possibility of a
dusting of snow in the far northeast forecast area, but warm
ground temperatures will work against it.

Dry conditions will then prevail Friday with high pressure moving
in. Temperatures will warm up but still be below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Enough agreement with longer range models that
the regional blend should be a good forecast
through Wednesday for both temperature and precipitation.

Friday starts with surface high pressure building in
while deep upper low in the eastern Great Lakes begins
lifting northeast. Upshot will be sunnier days starting with
cool temperatures Friday, a frosty Saturday morning, then a
steady warming trend lasting into Monday.

Models slightly different on arrival of next weather systems
precipitation Monday or Monday night but otherwise this system
clears out of here by late Tuesday. This system will not be
nearly as amplified as current trough bringing major weather to
our area into Thursday so lighter showers and perhaps some
thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 060000Z TAFS/...
Issued at 632 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Upper vorticity lobe currently moving through southwest Indiana is
progged by short term model guidance to lift off to the northeast
of the terminals by around 060100Z. This should keep the threat
for convective activity in the vicinity of the terminals rather
high until then. Although it appears convective activity will tend
to diminish, shower activity will linger through about 060700Z,
when organized lift diminishes.

Ceilings expected to fall into the 010-015 range from northwest to
southeast this evening as lower level flow backs in response to
surface system pulling off to the east. Potential for some IFR
ceiling later tonight as well, with the best chance in the KLAF
area.

Low confidence in wind forecast this evening at the KIND/KBMG
terminals as surface low is expected to pass near those terminals
over the next several hours. Surface winds should settle into the
290-330 degree range after 060600Z as the low pulls away, with
frequent gusts 25-30 kts by sunrise Thursday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for INZ040>042-048-
049-056-057.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for INZ021-028>031-
035>039-043>047-054-055.

&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Tucek
AVIATION...JAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
511 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-060915-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
511 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Severe thunderstorms possible, with the risk increasing from
north to south.

Hazards: Tornadoes. Damaging straight line winds. Large hail.
Lightning. Heavy rain.

Timing: Severe weather possible from this afternoon through early
tonight with the highest chance 5 PM to 10 PM.

Discussion: A complex system composed of a low pressure center, a
warm front, and a cold front will cross Indiana.

 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Outlook: Very windy Thursday. Snow showers possible Thursday night,
but no accumulation expected. Areas of frost Friday night. Chance of
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, but it is too early to tell if
storms will be severe.

Discussion: Strong low pressure will dominate Indiana weather into
Thursday night, then give way to high pressure. Another low pressure
system should approach early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
646 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

INZ062-063-052315-
Brown IN-Monroe IN-
646 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONROE AND NORTHWESTERN BROWN
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 645 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Bloomington, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bloomington, Ellettsville, Indiana University, Smithville, Helmsburg,
Lake Lemon, Beanblossom, Harrodsburg, Yellowwood Lake, Spearsville,
Monroe Reservoir, Woodville Hills, Unionville, Whitehall and Peoga.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central and central Indiana.

LAT...LON 3903 8668 3914 8668 3934 8655 3934 8610
      3899 8653 3899 8660
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 219DEG 49KT 3907 8662

AW/JN

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