River Flood Warning 255, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
311 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

A cold front is expected to move through late tonight. In the wake
of this front, high pressure is expected to move into the area over
the weekend and on into early next week. A frontal system may affect
the area towards the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

Removed pops for the rest of the night as atmosphere has stabilized.

Issued at 912 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Left chance thunderstorm pops in the rest of the night as there is
uspream storms over central Illinois and High Resolution Rapid
Refresh suggests they could make it in late this evening and
overnight. With moderately strong upper trough to the west, a cold
front to the northeast and some instability leftover, that seems
reasonable.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Appears convectively induced vorticity center presently moving into
southwest Illinois, with convection increasing ahead of this
feature. Short term models suggest this vorticity center will pass
across the local area late this afternoon and into the evening
hours, eventually moving off into Ohio around 010500Z. Air mass
continues to be quite unstable for strong convection, but deep layer
shear remain weak. Shear may increase some later this afternoon as
vorticity center approches.

Highest PoPs appear to be from the mid afternoon hours into the
evening hours coinciding with best instability and lift, with PoPs
tapering off by the late evening hours and overnight.

Doesn't appear there is much of a precipitation chance late tonight
in the wake of upper air feature, but will keep a small PoP going as
a surface front moves through.

Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS lows tonight may be a
little on the cool side. Will nudge up the guidance a category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Model guidance suggest broad troughing will push across the Great
Lakes this weekend, with heights rising by Monday as this feature
lifts off to the east. A couple of weak upper waves, one arriving
around Saturday and another Sunday afternoon and night, coupled with
an increasing warm advection pattern by Monday, offer some
precipitation potential, but nothing really stands out in the model
data at this point.

Will keep some small chance PoPs in the forecast for Saturday, and
for Sunday night and Monday to cover based on above.

Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS high for Saturday
look too warm. Will nudge the guidance highs down a category.
The remainder of the periods look OK for now.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Thursday)...

Issued at 312 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

Confidence is high there will be a lot of wet weather, with
temperatures roughly average.

The deterministic models agree frontal systems will bring high rain
chances to Indiana much of next week. Tuesday and Wednesday should
be wetter than Thursday and Friday. POPs from today's forecast may
need to be adjusted by as much as 20 percent Tuesday, but less than
10 percent at other times.

For the most part the models are close with their temperature
forecasts, and errors should be 2 degrees or less.  Wednesday is the
exception. High temperatures could be off by as much as 4 degrees
depending on the location of a low pressure system near Indiana.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 010600Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

LIFR ceilings and in some cases visibilities have developed in the
wake of the MCS that moved through the area during the evening. This
has drastically changed the aviation forecast in the last couple
hours and the 6Z TAFs will reflect this. Previous discussion follows.

Issued at 1138 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

Would not rule out a stray thunderstorm overnight, but coverage too
low to mention until after 15z, when IND and BMG could see one as
the cold front moves through from the northwest.

Although the GFS LAMP and the SREF were undecided. With light to
calm winds overnight and saturated near surface layer from the
storms earlier this evening, good confidence there could be some
MVFR fog or low stratus through about 13z.

After 18z...expect all VFR conditions with winds shifting from
southwest to west behind the cold front and less than 10 knots.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...MK/NIELD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
959 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-020200-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
959 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Outlook: Thunderstorms possible.

Hazards: Gusty winds, lightning, small hail, heavy rain.

Timing: Through the night.

Discussion: A cold front could bring some thunderstorms tonight.
Severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Outlook: There will be some chance of thunderstorms most of the time
except on Sunday. Severe storms are not expected Saturday. It is too
early to say if any storms are going to be severe next week.

Discussion: A series of systems will keep chances for rain in the
forecast through much of the next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind