Freeze Warning 3, NWS Indianapolis, IN

954 
WWUS73 KIND 170155
NPWIND

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
955 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

...Freeze Warning for Jackson and Jennings...

INZ071-072-171000-
/O.CON.KIND.FZ.W.0003.170317T0300Z-170317T1200Z/
Jackson-Jennings-
Including the city of Seymour
955 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...Tempertures between 30 and 32.

* IMPACTS...Agriculture that is sensitive to temperature may be 
  damaged. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

431 
WWUS73 KIND 170808
NPWIND

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
408 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

...FREEZE WARNING CANCELLED...

INZ071-072-170915-
/O.CAN.KIND.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170317T1200Z/
Jackson-Jennings-
Including the city of Seymour
408 AM EDT Fri Mar 17 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has cancelled the
Freeze Warning for Jackson and Jennings Counties. Temperatures
have warmed into the mid 30s and are expected to remain above
freezing through daybreak.

$$

Ryan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
220 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

High pressure will depart Central Indiana tonight...allowing a
warm front to surge into the area. The warm front...along with a
passing upper level weather disturbance will bring rain showers
back to Central Indiana late tonight and for Friday.

Precipitation is expected to end on Friday as the upper weather
disturbance departs. High pressure is then expected to build
across the western Great Lakes and midwest through the weekend.

Another Weather system will arrive in Indiana on Monday bringing
rain chances back to much of the state. More rain will be possible
on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnight/...

Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a ridge of High
pressure in place over SW Indiana and Eastern Illinois. Satellite
Images show mainly clear skies across Indiana with light west
winds. Water Vapor shows a short wave over the Dakotas and Western
Plains.

The evening hours across Central Indiana should remain quiet and
dry as the GFS suggests the surface high will drift to the east.
Meanwhile...the short wave is expected to make a push toward
Indiana overnight. Forecast soundings and Time Height sections
indicate a top down Saturation beginning after 06Z...signaling the
invasion of high clouds. By 09Z the GFS 295K Isentropic surface
shows excellent up-glide...with specific humidities over 4 g/kg.
This lift continues into Friday. Further support is seen within
the Q vectors...showing good lower level convergence arriving
between 09Z-12Z. Thus will keep a dry forecast through 06Z...then
ramping up pops...particularly across the west between 09Z-12Z as
dynamics and forcing arrive.

Given the ongoing warm air advection and expected increase in
cloud cover...will trend overnight lows at or slightly above a
mavmos blend. Any precip that falls may briefly arrive as a
freezing rain...but with temps expected to be very close to
32...and temps are suggested to be climbing after 09Z as warm air
advection is ongoing. Thus any freezing rain amounts should be
minimal and rising temps should melt any freezing rain impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Active weather is expected to persist on Friday. The previously
mentioned short wave will be pushing through the Great lakes
during the course f the day. The 295K Isentropic surface continues
to show excellent up-glide through the afternoon as specific
humidities remain quite moist...over 6 k/kg. Time heights and
forecast soundings continue to show saturated lower levels and
q-vectors continue to show good lower level convergence through
the morning. Thus will trend toward categorical pops on Friday.
Given clouds and precip expected...will trend highs closer to the
mavmos 3 hourlys.

GFS and NAm then suggest strong ridging building aloft for Friday
night into Sunday. Meanwhile...broad low pressure appears to be
pushing through the Great Lakes...keeping broad cyclonic flow in
place across the Region. Forecast soundings on Saturday afternoon
suggest easily attainable convective temperatures in the upper
30s. This in combination with lower level flow could result in a
few sct light rain showers...thus some afternoon low chance pops
on Saturday cannot be ruled out.

With loss of heating on Both Friday night and Saturday night...no
precip will be expected at those times. Furthermore by Saturday
night...the lower level flow becomes more more anti-cyclonic as
high pressure builds across the region from the west. Thus will
trend again toward a dry forecast on Sunday and a blend on temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night Through Thursday/...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Northwest flow aloft will send a cold front through the area on
Monday, bringing rain chances with it. High pressure will then build
in for Tuesday and Wednesday. A warm front will then bring more
precipitation chances on Thursday. Temperatures may be cool enough
for a brief mix of rain and snow later Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, but rain should otherwise be the main precipitation type.

For the most part, temperatures will be near to a little below
average through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 161800Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

VFR conditions expected through the first half of the period, then
deteriorating conditions to IFR by 18Z or so Friday.

Clear skies this afternoon will give way to increasing mid and high
clouds this evening. Ceilings will continue to lower overnight as a
warm front moves into the area. Further lowering will occur Friday
into the MVFR and IFR categories as the front moves through.

Along with the front will come chances for precipitation, with
highest chances after 12Z Friday. While cannot rule out some mixed
precipitation late tonight, at the moment feel odds of that are too
low to mention. Will continue to only mention rain.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Puma
NEAR TERM...Puma
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
547 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-062>065-171000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, and Columbus
547 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: A brief period of light snow or a mix of rain and snow is
possible tonight.

Hazards: Isolated slick spots.

Timing: After 10 PM.

Discussion: An approaching frontal system will bring precipitation to
the area tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Outlook: There will be a chance for a wintry mix early Friday morning
mainly over far eastern central Indiana.

Discussion: A frontal system will bring precipitation to the area
through Friday evening, some of which may fall as a wintry mix early
Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

INZ060-061-067>072-171000-
Sullivan-Greene-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
547 AM EDT Thu Mar 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Sub freezing temperatures will continue through late morning
today. A brief period of light snow or a mix of rain and snow is
possible tonight.

Hazards: Damage to emerging vegetation. Isolated slick spots.

Timing: Sub freezing temperatures through noon. Wintry mix after 10
PM.

Discussion: An approaching frontal system will bring precipitation to
the area tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Outlook: There will be a chance for a wintry mix early Friday morning
mainly over far eastern central Indiana.

Discussion: A frontal system will bring precipitation to the area
through Friday evening, some of which may fall as a wintry mix early
Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.
&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind