Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Indianapolis, IN

077 
WGUS73 KIND 052258
FFSIND

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
558 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

INC035-065-095-135-060030-
/O.CON.KIND.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Madison IN-Randolph IN-Delaware IN-Henry IN-
558 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EST FOR
MADISON...RANDOLPH...DELAWARE AND HENRY COUNTIES...

At 512 PM EST, local law enforcement reported flash flooding in 
Winchester.  Flash flooding is already occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Muncie, Anderson, New Castle, Elwood, Alexandria, Winchester, Albany,
Yorktown, Pendleton, Fortville, Union City, Chesterfield, Ingalls,
Knightstown, Lapel, Edgewood, Frankton, Eaton, Daleville and Parker
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 8520 3979 8522 3979 8559 3995 8557
      3994 8586 4038 8586 4038 8522 4031 8522
      4031 8480 4001 8481

$$

TDUD

641 
WGUS73 KIND 060029
FFSIND

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
729 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

INC035-065-095-135-060039-
/O.EXP.KIND.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-171106T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Madison IN-Randolph IN-Delaware IN-Henry IN-
729 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MADISON...RANDOLPH...DELAWARE AND
HENRY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM EST...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4000 8520 3979 8522 3979 8559 3995 8557
      3994 8586 4038 8586 4038 8522 4031 8522
      4031 8480 4001 8481

$$

TDUD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
328 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Low pressure along with a strong cold front will move through the
area this evening bringing the potential for heavy rain and severe
thunderstorms. Cooler air will then rule into next week with highs
in the 40s to around 50 for much of the period. A couple of weaker
systems will bring precipitation to parts of the area Monday,
Tuesday, and next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 306 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The first wave of low pressure, riding along a front from near the
northwest forecast area southwest into the St. Louis area, was
moving out of the forecast area. However, more waves are to the
southwest along the front, with more thunderstorms associated with
them.

Have already seen severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes across
the area this afternoon, with good shear and instability for this
time of year. These favorable conditions will continue into this
evening. Upstream mid level lapse rates are higher than across the
area, and some of this air will advect in, increasing the hail
threat as well.

In addition, high precipitable water values continue with good 850mb
moisture transport. Some areas have received over a couple of inches
of rain. With more storms moving in, the flash flood threat will
continue. Thus will continue with the Flash Flood Watch.

Given all the above, will continue with high PoPs through 00Z, then
gradually decrease them from northwest to southeast through the
evening, with some lower PoPs hanging around longer across the
southeast until near 12Z. Will keep the Flash Flood Watch going
through 400 AM for now, but will likely be able to cancel it early
as the heavy rain moves out. Will watch closely.

The model blend looks reasonable for low temperatures tonight with
cold advection behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 306 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Monday looks to remain dry. Went higher than the blend for sky cover
Monday as an inversion will likely trap moisture. Chances for rain
will return to much of the area Monday night as a wave rides along
to the south. Forcing looks good south with decent frontogenetical
forcing added to the mix. Will go likely PoPs far south Monday
night, with only slight chance PoPs north.

Kept some lingering low PoPs Tuesday morning. Low chances for rain
will move back in to far southern areas Tuesday night with another
wave, but not all models have rain that far north. Thus confidence
is low for these Tuesday night PoPs.

High pressure will bring dry conditions Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday Night Through Sunday/
Issued at 306 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Much of the long term will be quiet with high pressure in control.
However, a developing upper trough and a surface low pressure system
could bring some precipitation Saturday night into Sunday.
Temperatures look cold enough that some snow may mix in with the
rain Saturday night & Sunday morning.

Temperatures will remain below average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 052100Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 328 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Scattered convection will continue around KIND this afternoon, with
more coverage of thunder moving in by early evening. At the moment,
it appears showers with MVFR visibility will be the main threat in
the near term.

Previous discussion follows...

MVFR conditions expected, with occasional IFR conditions in
convection.

Waves of showers and thunderstorms will move across the sites
through the first 6-12 hours of the TAF period. MVFR conditions can
be expected, with IFR or worse conditions in the thunderstorms. Some
severe storms with large hail and gusts over 50kt are possible.

Outside of convection winds will gust to around 25kt this afternoon.

After the convection exits, MVFR or perhaps high end IFR ceilings
will continue overnight. Improvement is expected from the northwest
during the morning Monday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060-061.

Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ062>065-070>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
416 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-060930-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
416 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall later today and
tonight.

Hazards: Damaging winds...large hail...a few tornadoes...heavy
rainfall causing flooding and cloud to ground lightning.

Timing: Best threat for severe weather from early afternoon through
the evening. Best threat for heavy rainfall late afternoon through
tonight.

Discussion: The approach and passage of a cold front later today into
tonight will bring the threat for severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall to central Indiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Outlook: Scattered showers are possible late Monday into
Tuesday...especially south of Interstate 70. Showers will be possible
again on Saturday.

Discussion: The passage of low pressure through the Tennessee Valley
will bring scattered showers to south central Indiana Monday night
and early Tuesday. Dry and cooler weather is then expected with high
pressure through the rest of the work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Ryan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MUNCIE                  40.20N 85.39W
11/05/2017                   DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED IN THE 600 BLOCK OF ASHLAND AVENUE,
            MUNCIE, INDIANA. TIME IS APPROXIMATE AND
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W BALL STATE UNIVERSI 40.20N 85.44W
11/05/2017                   DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIX-INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB TORN OFF TREE AT
            JACKSON STREET AND UNIVERSITY AVENUE IN
            MUNCIE, INDIANA. TIME IS ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
357 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW BALL STATE UNIVER 40.19N 85.43W
11/05/2017                   DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF TWO TREES DOWN IN THE 300 BLOCK OF
            SCHROEDER AVENUE. TIME IS ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR..

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW EATON             40.35N 85.39W
11/05/2017                   DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TEN-INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN AND A
            SIX-INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB TORN DOWN NEXT
            TO IT BETWEEN WALNUT STREET AND STATE ROAD 3
            ON EATON-WHEELING PIKE. TIME IS VERY ROUGHLY
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N MUNCIE              40.22N 85.40W
11/05/2017                   DELAWARE           IN   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED WIND OF 65 MPH...PEA SIZE
            HAIL..AND SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN. POWER WAS
            OFF AND ON. REPORTED AT 805 WEST DUNN
            AVENUE, MUNCIE, INDIANA.

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
437 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N ORESTES             40.33N 85.74W
11/05/2017                   MADISON            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A COUPLE OF OUT BUILDINGS DESTROYED AND
            THERE WERE NUMEROUS 2 TO 3-FOOT DIAMETER
            LIVE TREES BROKEN OFF ABOVE THE GROUND...ALL
            APPEAR TO BE FROM STRAIGHT LINE WIND PER
            MADISON COUNTY EMA. TIME ROUGHLY ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

BHH