Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
232 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Cold front is dropping southward early this afternoon and has
recently cleared Galesburg and Peoria. Clusters of thunderstorms
are developing over southeast Iowa and central Illinois just ahead
of the front, in an area where CAPE's have reached 3500-4000 J/kg.
With freezing levels above 14kft, large hail may have a hard time
making it to the surface, but some storms may pulse up enough for
some brief hail/wind threats. The front should be near I-72 toward
6-7 pm and be south of I-70 after sunset, so the threat of storms
will diminish from north to south following the passage of the
front.

High pressure will move across the Midwest on Monday, with a brief
period of less humid air to enjoy, before the heat wave arrives.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Main concern remains with the extended period of heat beginning on
Tuesday, followed by any potential ridge-rider MCS's late in the
week.

Not much change in the setup for this week, as the heat dome
spreads eastward. No headlines planned yet as the more juicy air
is a bit slower to arrive, with heat index values above 100
degrees appearing more likely beginning on Wednesday. Highs in the
mid 90s most likely everywhere by Wednesday and likely over the
southwest half of the CWA on Thursday.

Core of the upper level high starts to shift into the southeast
U.S. Thursday night, which would allow more of the MCS type
activity along the periphery of the ridge to impact our area. With
this concern, the northeast half of the CWA will be subject to
more in the way of clouds and precipitation late week, which would
keep temperatures down some. Both the GFS and ECMWF models favor
that area being close to the MCS track Thursday night and Friday,
although the GFS shifts it a bit further south by Friday night.
The two models start getting well out of sync during the weekend,
as the GFS is more aggressive in pushing a cold front through on
Saturday. Meanwhile, the latest ECMWF MOS guidance keeps highs
well into the 90s. Thus, confidence in the weekend forecast is
lower than usual.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Area of MVFR ceilings pushing south into central Illinois behind a
cold front at midday, and has reached KPIA. Some modification in
heights is taking place though, and will limit the MVFR conditions
to KPIA/KBMI for the first few hours of the forecast. Scattered
storms expected to start firing soon along the front, and have
mentioned about a 3-hour VCTS period at all sites as the front
passes. Behind the front, some clearing will try to take place.
However, areas around KCMI will hold on to the lower level
moisture longer, and there is some potential for ceilings to dip
below 3,000 feet again toward sunrise.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
319 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     NEW HOLLAND             40.18N 89.58W
07/16/2017                   LOGAN              IL   PUBLIC

&&

SBAKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
324 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2017

ILZ036-037-040>042-047-048-051-162315-
Logan-Tazewell-Sangamon-Mason-Menard-Schuyler-Cass-Fulton-
324 PM CDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...FUNNEL CLOUDS SIGHTED OVER WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

A funnel cloud was reported near New Holland this afternoon. A weak
frontal boundary was located over west central Illinois, which will
be the focus for possible other storms.

Atmospheric conditions exist across the area today that favor the
possible formation of weak circulations, along an existing boundary.
Some of these circulations are occurring underneath developing
showers and thunderstorms, where a funnel cloud may develop. Once the
rain begins, the funnel cloud dissipates.

Low hanging clouds can also appear to dip up and down at times, but
they will not show signs of any rapid rotation. An actual funnel
cloud will exhibit spinning in a counter clockwise direction.

In rare instances, these funnels may briefly touch down. Stay alert,
and be prepared to move to a safe shelter, if a funnel cloud
approaches the ground.

LAT...LON 4028 9078 4028 9045 4060 9044 4048 9012
      4033 8931 3992 8934 4002 9034 4027 9079

Goetsch