Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Lincoln, IL

675 
WWUS53 KILX 052257
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
457 PM CST SUN NOV 5 2017

ILC023-052307-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-171105T2300Z/
Clark-
457 PM CST SUN NOV 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLARK COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
500 PM CST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for east central
Illinois.

LAT...LON 3934 8756 3934 8758 3931 8762 3930 8760
      3928 8761 3925 8759 3925 8757 3922 8757
      3918 8761 3917 8775 3918 8800 3935 8801
      3948 8753 3936 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 254DEG 52KT 3939 8720 

$$

Barnes

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
254 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017

Cold front at 2 pm was located roughly from the north side of St.
Louis to Paris. Second round of storms has increased on schedule
along this boundary, and the trends will continue to shift
southeast through the afternoon. Tornado watch in effect as far
north as Decatur-Danville, though this area is more of a concern
for elevated large hail over the next couple hours. Severe threat
should mainly be south of I-70 by sunset and out of the southeast
CWA by about 7-8 pm. Further north, a band of light rain in the
cold sector has been fading near the Illinois River recently, and
should be gone in time to go with a dry forecast for tonight.

Visible satellite imagery showing large expanse of stratocumulus
extending all the way northwest past the Canadian border. Have
concerns that the models are overzealous with the clearing trends
behind the front, and have beefed up the sky cover in the forecast
for tonight and Monday. There may be some brief clearing in the
southwest CWA overnight, but a batch of mid-level clouds
currently over Nebraska will be tracking east. These are progged
to start moving in toward sunrise. Will only go with partly cloudy
skies at best in that area overnight. Precipitation-wise, both the
GFS and ECMWF suggest some light rain streaking eastward over
central Illinois in the afternoon. However, model soundings show
a lot of dry air below 10,000 feet, so this would likely be
sprinkles at best.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017

Split level upper flow will dominate into mid week. The current
front will make it into the Tennessee Valley, before a low
pressure rides along it. Some discrepancies in the models as to
how far north the rain shield will extend Monday night, but are in
agreement with it at least making it to I-70. A separate fast-
moving streak of precipitation may clip the far southeast CWA
Tuesday night as well.

Midweek, a strong shortwave will move east out of the central
Plains, passing to our south on Thursday. While no rain is
expected in our area from it, this will be a factor in the larger
cold air mass that will drop south out of Ontario. Significant
model differences exist with the depth of this air mass, ranging
from 850 mb temperatures of +5C (GFS) to -15C (Canadian) Thursday
evening in our area. Will go with the status quo for now, mainly
highs in the 40s, with dry weather through Friday.

For the weekend, all the models feature a prominent shortwave
moving into the Mississippi Valley, though the ECMWF is not quite
as pronounced and thus a bit weaker. Most of the associated
precipitation will be rain, though a mix is possible across the
north. Still plenty of time for this to change, though.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sun Nov 5 2017

Line of thunderstorms has formed along a cold front from near
KSPI-KCMI, and the main impact over the next couple hours will be
at KCMI. Once the line passes, scattered showers will continue,
but dry conditions should prevail at the TAF sites by 00Z. IFR
ceilings will improve to MVFR levels by early evening. Some
question as to how much clearing may take place, with expansive
stratocumulus to our northwest, and higher clouds moving in from
the west after 06Z. However, will mention VFR conditions by about
06Z for now.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
320 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-061200-
Cass-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-
Morgan-Peoria-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
320 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-061200-
Champaign-Christian-Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Douglas-
Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Macon-Moultrie-Piatt-Richland-
Shelby-Vermilion-
320 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

An Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms exists across the area
for this afternoon into early this evening.

Numerous thunderstorms will continue into this evening. A few of
the stronger storms will contain large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, with an isolated tornado possible as well.
The threat for severe weather should shift gradually southward,
being confined to around I-70 southward by early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon into early this
evening. Present indications suggest the primary time frame for
activation would be until 7 PM CST.

37

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1035 AM CST SUN NOV 5 2017

ILZ068-073-051700-
Lawrence-Crawford-
1035 AM CST SUN NOV 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM CST...

At 1035 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lawrenceville, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceville, Russellville, Birds, Billett, Pinkstaff, Petrolia and
Lawrenceville Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 8752 3869 8752 3867 8760 3865 8775
      3882 8781 3889 8754 3888 8753 3886 8755
      3885 8753 3882 8753 3879 8750 3877 8751
      3876 8750 3874 8750
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 255DEG 40KT 3876 8767

37

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1110 AM CST SUN NOV 5 2017

ILZ044>046-053>055-051800-
Douglas-Macon-Vermilion-Piatt-Moultrie-Champaign-
1110 AM CST SUN NOV 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MOULTRIE...PIATT...
VERMILION...CHAMPAIGN...NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND NORTHEASTERN MACON
COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CST...

At 1108 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Rankin to near Forsyth. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Champaign, Decatur, Danville, Rantoul, Monticello, Tuscola, Urbana,
Savoy, Mahomet, Hoopeston, St. Joseph, Forsyth, Tolono, Villa Grove,
Arthur, Bement, Oakwood, Philo, Cerro Gordo and Rossville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 213 and 251.
 Interstate 72 between mile markers 141 and 182.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 171 and 212.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 8867 3992 8898 4040 8804 4040 8794
      4046 8793 4049 8787 4049 8771 4048 8753
      4018 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 246DEG 41KT 4049 8785 3991 8892

37

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
205 PM CST SUN NOV 5 2017

ILZ045-054-055-052045-
Douglas-Moultrie-Champaign-
205 PM CST SUN NOV 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MOULTRIE...
SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CST...

At 204 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Arthur, or 10 miles northeast of Sullivan, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tuscola, Arcola, Villa Grove, Arthur, Atwood, Lovington, Newman,
Camargo, Broadlands, Hindsboro, Allerton, Bourbon, Murdock, Garrett,
Longview, Chesterville and Cadwell.

This includes Interstate 57 between mile markers 202 and 216.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for central and
east central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3979 8797 3969 8797 3968 8806 3966 8806
      3965 8865 3973 8866 3996 8794 3980 8793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 255DEG 44KT 3973 8853

Barnes

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
217 PM CST SUN NOV 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     HAIL             TAYLORVILLE AIRPORT     39.53N 89.33W
11/05/2017  E0.88 INCH       CHRISTIAN          IL   PUBLIC

&&

SBAKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
327 PM CST SUN NOV 5 2017

ILZ054-056-061-062-066-067-052215-
Coles-Jasper-Effingham-Moultrie-Shelby-Cumberland-
327 PM CST SUN NOV 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLES...SOUTHEASTERN MOULTRIE...
NORTHWESTERN JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY...CUMBERLAND AND NORTHERN
EFFINGHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CST...

At 327 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Allenville to near Stewardson to near
Wrights Corner. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, Mattoon, Effingham, Sullivan, Toledo, Casey, Altamont,
Neoga, Teutopolis, Greenup, Ashmore, Windsor, Stewardson, Dieterich,
Beecher City, Humboldt, Lerna, Jewett, Shumway and Montrose.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 57 between mile markers 155 and 198.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 81 and 126.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for south central,
central, southeastern and east central Illinois.

LAT...LON 3948 8796 3948 8801 3915 8801 3906 8827
      3904 8880 3919 8880 3926 8868 3958 8862
      3965 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 264DEG 41KT 3952 8855 3927 8859 3909 8894

Barnes