Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Lincoln, IL

847 
WWUS53 KILX 211739
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1239 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

ILC029-035-211815-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-170821T1815Z/
Coles-Cumberland-
1239 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLES AND NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

At 1238 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Charleston,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. At 1224 pm, a wind gust of 68 mph was 
         reported at Coles County Airport, although the storm has 
         weakened slightly since then. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, Ashmore, Janesville, Hutton and Fox Ridge State Park. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3938 8828 3951 8827 3958 8801 3936 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 266DEG 21KT 3946 8818 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Geelhart

977 
WWUS53 KILX 211812
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
112 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

ILC029-035-211821-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-170821T1815Z/
Coles-Cumberland-
112 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN COLES AND
NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Lincoln.

LAT...LON 3938 8828 3951 8827 3958 8801 3936 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 266DEG 21KT 3947 8794 

$$

Geelhart

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1007 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

A decaying MCS is currently pushing across west-central Illinois,
with 1445z radar mosaic showing the leading edge of the convection
generally along a Bloomington to Beardstown line. Cloud tops have
been rapidly warming on IR satellite imagery over the past couple
of hours, so am expecting lightning to steadily decrease as well.
For the remainder of the day, will be watching the outflow
boundary from this system for potential re-development. One
cluster of storms has already formed on the southwest edge of the
outflow over northeast Missouri, while other cells are expected to
fire further east along a Quincy to Paris line into the early
afternoon. End result will be a mostly cloudy day with occasional
showers/thunder across the northern half of the KILX CWA. Further
south, only isolated convection is expected along/south of the
I-70 corridor. Have updated PoPs, sky cover, and hourly temps to
better reflect current trends. Have also adjusted afternoon high
temperatures down a few degrees into the middle 80s from
Peoria/Bloomington northward...and bumped highs up into the lower
90s across the far southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Will be watching current MCS over Iowa closely this morning as it
moves east toward forecast area. Orientation of LLJ feeding the
complex suggests that convection may fire along the NW-SE boundary
in place near I-74 toward sunrise this morning. Unlike the past
two mornings, RAP is forecasting around 2000 J/kg of elevated
CAPE will still be available to tap near the boundary at 12z,
wouldn't be surprised to see the boundary remain active at least
through the morning with a general trend of redevelopment east and
southeast. Blow-off cloudiness will likely be somewhat of an
issue for eclipse viewing.

A break is possible once the storms move through as a brief
period of shortwave ridging moves across Illinois during the
middle afternoon and evening ahead of a stronger wave plunging
into the Midwest as the overall flow amplifies. In addition a wave
currently over southern high plains is forecast to phase with the
northern stream wave in the Missouri Valley providing additional
dynamics. Winds from 950mb on up increase to over 30 kts by 09z
suggesting that there is potential for significant winds with some
of the stronger storms late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

As the wave amplifies the eastern U.S. trough, Its associated cold
front should move quickly through the forecast area. Some of the
storms Tuesday morning through midday ahead of the front may be
strong southeast of I-70 with again wind being the primary threat.
Front clears the forecast area by 00z bringing in drier and cooler
weather into next weekend. Differences in model evolution with a
potential cutoff system over the upper Mississippi Valley/Great
Lakes early next week are too significant to include in this
package.

temperatures behind the front should be mostly 5-10 degrees below
normal with a warming trend toward normal by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Thunderstorm Complex over Iowa continues to progress toward
Illinois. CAMs this morning seem to be handling the overall
evolution reasonable but a bit slow on the development east and
southeast. Convection will likely form southeast along a boundary
in place near I-74 this morning. SPC mesoanalysis indicates CAPE
gradient evident along boundary and will probably focus new
development. 08z HRRR shows convection impacting all central
Illinois terminals except possibly KSPI between 15z and 19z as it
travels southeast. Will follow this general trend with a
correction of timing.

Should be a lull between this initial convection and development
along and ahead of cold front expected to approach the area
tonight. Strong dynamics and deep moisture will likely lead to
widespread convection after 06z. Model are in pretty good
agreement on timing precip. Since the impact will be mostly in the
outlook period and some uncertainty exists will keep CIGS and
VSBYS VFR but would be surprised to see some MVFR CIGS and VSBYS
at times.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Barnes
SHORT TERM...Barker
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Barker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1132 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>055-061-221100-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-De Witt-Douglas-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Macon-
Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-
Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
1132 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon,
especially in areas north of I-72. A break in thunderstorm
activity is expected, then another period of thunderstorms is
expected overnight. There is a small risk of severe thunderstorms
this afternoon, with strong winds and hail the main threats.

Heat index values will reach 92 to 98 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through Tuesday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

ILZ056-057-062-063-066>068-071>073-221100-
Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-
Lawrence-Richland-
1132 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible by mid afternoon, with
periods of storms through the evening. There is a small risk of
severe thunderstorms, with strong winds and hail the main
threats.

Heat index values will reach 92 to 98 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will remain possible through Tuesday
afternoon. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe Tuesday
afternoon until sunset, with gusty winds and heavy rain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Geelhart

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
725 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

ILZ027-036-211300-
Knox-Fulton-
725 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FULTON AND SOUTHERN
KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

At 725 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Abingdon, or 10 miles south of Galesburg, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Abingdon, Knoxville, London Mills, Maquon, Gilson, St. Augustine,
Delong and Middle Grove.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 59 and 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 9005 4062 9009 4071 9044 4085 9045
      4090 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 1225Z 279DEG 17KT 4080 9039

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