Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Lincoln, IL

106 
WWUS53 KILX 282144
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
344 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

ILC175-282200-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170228T2200Z/
Stark-
344 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CST
FOR NORTHEASTERN STARK COUNTY...

At 344 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Osceola, or 9
miles east of Kewanee, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Osceola, Bradford and Elmira. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A tornado watch remains in effect for the warned area. Tornadoes can
develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Although a tornado is not
immediately likely, if one is spotted act quickly and move to a place
of safety inside a sturdy structure, such as a basement or small
interior room.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for north central
Illinois.

LAT...LON 4116 8964 4115 8987 4123 8986 4123 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 254DEG 37KT 4120 8975 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Shimon

401 
WWUS53 KILX 282156
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
356 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

ILC175-282205-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170228T2200Z/
Stark-
356 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN STARK COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 400 PM CST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CST for north central
Illinois.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Lincoln.

LAT...LON 4116 8964 4115 8987 4123 8986 4123 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 254DEG 37KT 4123 8961 

$$

Shimon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
320 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

20z/2pm surface analysis shows 1000mb low over eastern Iowa, with
warm front extending southeastward along/just north of the I-74
corridor.  MUCAPE values have increased to 1000J/kg while 0-1km bulk
shear has been enhanced to 30-35kt near the boundary. Based on these
parameters, it appears convection will first initiate near the warm
front across the northern KILX CWA within the next hour or two.
While these first cells will quickly shift into northern Illinois,
additional cells developing within the main instability/shear axis
across southwest Illinois will lift into the area by early evening.
Any storms that fire late this afternoon into the early evening will
be capable of damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph, large hail
greater than quarter-sized, and a few tornadoes.  The first round of
scattered convection will be relatively short-lived, with the HRRR
suggesting it exiting into northern Illinois/Indiana by 02z/8pm.
After that, attention will focus further west ahead of an advancing
cold front where a squall line will take shape.  Models have been
struggling with the timing of the late night convection: however,
consensus is beginning to point to a slightly earlier solution than
the 12z CAMS had initially suggested.  Latest HRRR shows a line of
storms arriving west of the Illinois River by 04z/10pm...then
quickly pushing to the I-70 corridor by 08z/2am.  Main threats with
these storms will be damaging wind gusts...with the potential for a
few tornadoes embedded within the line.  Once the overnight line of
storms pass, the threat for additional severe weather will come to
an end.  Windy and much cooler weather will be noted in the wake of
the system on Wednesday.  Westerly winds will gust to between 25 and
35 mph...while high temperatures only reach the upper 40s and lower
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

500 mb trough axis to shift across central Illinois Wednesday
evening with lingering low chance POPs across our far north and
east. Broad cyclonic flow remains over our area on Thursday
bringing a mix of clouds and sun along with more seasonably cold
temperatures. Highs will be mostly in the 40s. High pressure is
then forecast to build east into the region through the end of the
week. With our area under a northwest flow, temperatures will
remain closer to where they should be into Friday. Several weak,
fast moving shortwaves will track southeast into the Midwest late
Thursday and again late Friday into Friday night bringing low
chance POPs mainly to the north.

The upper low/trough shifts well off to our east late in the weekend
into early next week allowing upper level ridging to build into the
Midwest. This will result in a significant warming trend once again
over the center of the nation. However, medium range models still
showing a decent amount of spread with respect to our next upper
wave forecast into the Northern Plains on Monday and then closing
off a deep upper low over the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday
at least according the the latest ECMWF, while the GFS is quite a
bit slower with the evolution of the early week trough, just the
opposite from what we saw 12 hours ago. Not a great deal of
confidence with the forecast as we head into the second half of the
weekend with POPs increasing ahead of the approaching shortwave,
especially on Sunday and Monday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

IFR/MVFR ceilings persist across much of central Illinois late
this morning...north of an approaching warm front. HRRR has been
consistently showing ceilings gradually rising as the day
progresses, and latest trends seem to be supporting this. Have
raised ceilings to VFR at KSPI at 21z...then further northeast to
KBMI and KCMI by 23z. Next big question will be timing of convective
initiation later today/tonight. Models are still not in great
agreement, but consensus suggests only widely scattered storms
late this afternoon into the early evening before a squall line
pushes through the area overnight. Based on 4km NAM timing, have
added TEMPO groups for thunder starting at 06z at KPIA and ending
by 10z at KCMI. Winds will be strong/gusty from the south this
afternoon and evening...with occasional gusts to between 20 and
25kt. Once the squall line passes, winds will veer to the W/SW and
once again gust to 20-25kt late tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnes
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Barnes

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
327 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-011200-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-Menard-Morgan-Peoria-Schuyler-
Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
327 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, north central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop and track across the
area through early evening. Some of the cells will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph...hail larger
than quarters...and a few tornadoes.

A squall line is expected to develop ahead of an advancing cold
front across eastern Iowa/Missouri later this evening. These
storms will push eastward through the Illinois River Valley
between 9pm and midnight...bringing the threat for damaging wind
gusts in excess of 60mph...and a few embedded tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through midnight.

ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061-011200-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Logan-Macon-
McLean-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-Shelby-Vermilion-
327 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop and track across the
area through early evening. Some of the cells will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph...hail larger
than quarters...and a few tornadoes.

A squall line is expected to develop ahead of an advancing cold
front across eastern Iowa/Missouri later this evening. These
storms will push eastward across the I-55 corridor between 10pm
and 1am...then to the Indiana border between 1am and 3am. The main
threats will be damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph...and a few
embedded tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through 3am.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-011200-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
327 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois, south central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop and track across the
area through the evening. Some of the cells will be capable of
producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph...hail larger
than quarters...and a few tornadoes.

A squall line is expected to develop ahead of an advancing cold
front across eastern Iowa/Missouri later this evening. These
storms will push eastward to the I-70 corridor between 3am and
6am. The main threats will be damaging wind gusts in excess of
60mph...and a few embedded tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed tonight...particularly between
10pm and 6am.

Barnes

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
319 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     HAIL             ALTONA                  41.12N 90.16W
02/28/2017  E0.75 INCH       KNOX               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            .

&&

NWS LINCOLN IL
IRIS SYSTEM