Alert archive / Illinois / River Flood Warnings in 2017

River Flood Warning 23, NWS Lincoln, IL

April 28, 2017McLean County, Tazewell County, Woodford County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this river flood warning at Apr 28, 2017, 10:52 AM CDT for McLean County, Tazewell County, Woodford County, Illinois. It took effect at Apr 30, 2017, 12:19 PM CDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 28, 2017, 10:52 AM CDT (15:52 UTC)
In effect from: Apr 30, 2017, 12:19 PM CDT
Expired: May 3, 2017, 3:30 PM CDT
In force: 3 days
Issued by: NWS Lincoln, IL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Moderate

Counties McLean County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Woodford County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Mackinaw River near Congerville (CNGI2). The gauge peaked at 13.92 ft at May 1, 2017, 3:00 PM CDT.

Action stage: 10 ft
Minor stage: 13 ft
Moderate stage: 14 ft
Major stage: 20 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 05567500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

283 
WGUS43 KILX 281552
FLWILX


Flood Warning
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1052 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...The National Weather Service in Lincoln IL has issued a flood 
warning for the following rivers in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

.Heavy rain of up to 3 to 5 inches is expected for this weekend with
the bulk of it falling on Saturday. This will cause appreciable rises
along the Mackinaw River into next week. Please remain aware of river
levels in your area and keep up with the latest forecast information.

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons with interests along this river need to prepare for flooding.
Stay tuned for further updates on this flooding situation.

&&

ILC113-179-203-290552-
/O.NEW.KILX.FL.W.0023.170430T1719Z-170503T2030Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.170430T1719Z.170501T1800Z.170503T1430Z.NO/
1052 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The National Weather Service in Lincoln IL has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville.
* From Sunday afternoon until Wednesday afternoon.
* At  945 AM Friday the stage was 2.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Sunday afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 17.9 feet by Monday afternoon.The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Wednesday morning.


&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Sat    Sun    Mon

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13   2.6 Fri 10 AM    2.5    8.3   17.8


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$

DRH

7 follow-up statements

284 
WGUS83 KILX 290350
FLSILX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...
  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties
  Salt Creek near Greenview affecting Mason and Menard Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC125-129-291750-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0029.170430T1620Z-170504T0651Z/
/GREI2.3.ER.170430T1620Z.170501T1800Z.170504T0051Z.NR/
1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Salt Creek near Greenview. 
* From Sunday morning until late Wednesday night.
* At  945 PM Friday the stage was 3.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and continue to
  rise to near 20.4 feet by Monday afternoon.The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Wednesday evening.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Sat    Sun    Mon

Salt Creek
 Greenview         16   3.5 Fri 10 PM    3.2   12.6   20.0


&&

LAT...LON 4017 8960 4009 8960 4011 8968 4009 8982
      4016 8982 4018 8969             

$$

ILC113-179-203-291750-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0023.170430T1719Z-170503T2030Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.170430T1719Z.170501T1800Z.170503T1430Z.NO/
1050 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* From Sunday afternoon until Wednesday afternoon.
* At  945 PM Friday the stage was 2.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Sunday afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 17.9 feet by Monday afternoon.The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Wednesday morning.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Sat    Sun    Mon

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13   2.5 Fri 10 PM    2.5    8.3   17.8


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$

283 
WGUS83 KILX 300222
FLSILX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
922 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean, Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties.

Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches has fallen over the Mackinaw River 
basin since early Saturday, and a couple more inches of rain are 
likely through Sunday evening. This will cause significant rises
on the river into Monday night. 

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-301622-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0023.170501T1200Z-170503T0000Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.170501T1200Z.170502T0000Z.170502T1800Z.NO/
922 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* From Monday morning until Tuesday evening.
* At  845 PM Saturday the stage was 4.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Monday morning and continue to
  rise to near 14.0 feet by Monday evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, widespread agricultural flooding occurs.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Sun    Mon    Tue

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13   4.6 Sat 9 PM     7.0   13.0   13.6


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$

Geelhart

788 
WGUS83 KILX 301528
FLSILX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1028 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-010528-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0023.170501T0000Z-170503T0730Z/
/CNGI2.2.ER.170501T0000Z.170501T1800Z.170503T0130Z.NO/
1028 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* From this evening until late Tuesday night.
* At  845 AM Sunday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 15.0 feet by tomorrow afternoon.The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Tuesday evening.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Widespread agricultural flooding occurs.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Mon    Tue    Wed

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  10.1 Sun 9 AM    14.6   14.3   11.5


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$

jrp

309 
WGUS83 KILX 010313
FLSILX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1013 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-011713-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170502T1434Z/
/CNGI2.1.ER.170501T0025Z.170501T1800Z.170502T0834Z.NO/
1013 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* Until Tuesday morning.
* At  945 PM Sunday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.8 feet by 
  tomorrow afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Widespread agricultural flooding occurs.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6 AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Mon    Tue    Wed

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  13.1 Sun 10 PM   13.6   12.6    9.5


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$

EJL

435 
WGUS83 KILX 011644
FLSILX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1144 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Embarras River at Ste. Marie affecting Crawford and Jasper Counties
  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties
  Sangamon River at Monticello affecting Piatt County
  Sangamon River near Oakford affecting Cass...Mason and Menard 
  Counties
  Sangamon River near Chandlerville affecting Cass and Mason Counties
  Spoon River at London Mills affecting Fulton and Knox Counties
  Spoon River at Seville affecting Fulton County
  Little Wabash River near Clay City affecting Clay and Richland 
  Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC033-079-020644-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170506T0051Z/
/STMI2.2.ER.170430T1221Z.170502T0600Z.170505T1851Z.NO/
1144 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Embarras River at Ste. Marie. 
* Until Friday evening.
* At 1045 AM Monday the stage was 23.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.2 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday 
  afternoon.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue    Wed    Thu

Embarras River
 Ste. Marie        19  23.2 Mon 11 AM   24.2   22.5   20.7


&&

LAT...LON 3905 8811 3892 8795 3892 8779 3885 8773
      3885 8801 3896 8815             

$$

ILC025-159-020644-
/O.CON.KILX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLAI2.2.ER.170429T0018Z.170502T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1144 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Little Wabash River near Clay City. 
* Until further notice.
* At 1045 AM Monday the stage was 23.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 23.5 feet by 
  early tomorrow morning then begin falling.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...North Clay Road...1 mile east of the gage is
  flooded.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue    Wed    Thu

Little Wabash River
 Clay City         18  23.0 Mon 11 AM   23.5   23.4   22.7


&&

LAT...LON 3878 8846 3871 8829 3860 8820 3860 8832
      3867 8838 3870 8846             

$$

ILC113-179-203-020643-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170502T2200Z/
/CNGI2.1.ER.170501T0025Z.170502T0000Z.170502T1600Z.NO/
1144 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* Until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 1045 AM Monday the stage was 13.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.9 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Widespread agricultural flooding occurs.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue    Wed    Thu

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  13.8 Mon 11 AM   13.4   10.5    7.9


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$

ILC147-020643-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-170504T1800Z/
/MNTI2.1.ER.170501T0415Z.170502T0600Z.170504T1200Z.NO/
1144 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sangamon River at Monticello. 
* Until Thursday afternoon.
* At  945 AM Monday the stage was 13.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.9 feet by 
  early tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Flooding of agricultural areas begins.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue    Wed    Thu

Sangamon River
 Monticello        13  13.5 Mon 10 AM   13.9   13.7   13.0


&&

LAT...LON 4019 8847 4008 8847 4001 8854 3990 8874
      4000 8874 4006 8861             

$$

ILC017-125-129-020643-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0027.170502T1029Z-170505T2000Z/
/OKFI2.1.ER.170502T1029Z.170503T1800Z.170505T1400Z.NO/
1144 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sangamon River near Oakford. 
* From late tonight until Friday afternoon.
* At 1045 AM Monday the stage was 469.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 471.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early tomorrow morning and 
  continue to rise to near 472.0 feet by Wednesday afternoon.The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Friday morning.
* Impact...At 471.0 feet...Flooding begins to agricultural areas not 
  protected by levees.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue    Wed    Thu

Sangamon River
 Oakford           471  469.0 Mon 11 AM  471.1  471.9  471.9


&&

LAT...LON 4016 8982 4009 8982 4009 8997 4006 9002
      4013 9007 4016 8999             

$$

ILC017-125-020643-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0028.170501T2100Z-170507T0259Z/
/CDLI2.1.ER.170501T2100Z.170504T0000Z.170506T2059Z.NO/
1144 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Sangamon River near Chandlerville. 
* From this afternoon until Saturday evening.
* At 1100 AM Monday the stage was 456.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 456.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 458.4 feet by Wednesday evening.The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...At 459.9 feet...Flooding begins to impact some residences 
  in Chandlerville.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue    Wed    Thu

Sangamon River
 Chandlerville     457  456.4 Mon 11 AM  457.3  458.2  458.4


&&

LAT...LON 4013 9007 4006 9002 4002 9016 4003 9043
      4010 9036 4010 9017             

$$

ILC057-095-020643-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170503T0224Z/
/LNMI2.1.ER.170430T0907Z.170501T0015Z.170502T2024Z.NO/
1144 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Spoon River at London Mills. 
* Until Tuesday evening.
* At 1045 AM Monday the stage was 17.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow afternoon.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue    Wed    Thu

Spoon River
 London Mills      15  17.4 Mon 11 AM   16.3   12.8   10.5


&&

LAT...LON 4081 9020 4079 9012 4070 9024 4058 9027
      4059 9036 4071 9032             

$$

ILC057-020643-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170503T0500Z/
/SEVI2.1.ER.170430T0307Z.170430T1200Z.170502T2300Z.NO/
1144 AM CDT Mon May 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Spoon River at Seville. 
* Until late Tuesday night.
* At 1045 AM Monday the stage was 22.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Easterly access road to Seville inundated.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue    Wed    Thu

Spoon River
 Seville           22  22.9 Mon 11 AM   22.8   20.1   16.5


&&

LAT...LON 4059 9036 4058 9027 4045 9029 4037 9011
      4030 9015 4041 9040             

$$

654 
WGUS83 KILX 020204
FLSILX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
904 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an alternate
route. Turn around, don't drown.

Additional river and weather information is available at 
www.weather.gov/ilx.

&&

ILC113-179-203-021604-
/O.EXT.KILX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170502T2100Z/
/CNGI2.1.ER.170501T0025Z.170501T2115Z.170502T1500Z.NO/
904 PM CDT Mon May 1 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville. 
* Until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 845 PM Monday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Widespread agricultural flooding occurs.

&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6 AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Tue    Wed    Thu

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  13.7 Mon 9 PM    13.3   10.4    7.8


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$

EJL

914 
WGUS83 KILX 021301
FLSILX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
801 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Illinois...

  Mackinaw River near Congerville affecting McLean...Tazewell and 
  Woodford Counties

The following forecasts are based on observed precipitation, soil 
moisture conditions, and forecast precipitation. River levels are 
expected to continue falling.

Since flooding has subsided, this will be the last statement for this
flooding event.

ILC113-179-203-021331-
/O.CAN.KILX.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170502T2100Z/
/CNGI2.1.ER.170501T0025Z.170501T2115Z.170502T1015Z.NO/
801 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Mackinaw River near Congerville.
* At  745 AM Tuesday the stage was 12.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  515 AM Tuesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 10.4 feet by tomorrow
  morning.


&&


                  Fld  Observed         Forecast 6AM
Location          Stg  Stg  Day Time    Wed    Thu    Fri

Mackinaw River
 Congerville       13  12.7 Tue 8 AM    10.4    7.8    6.2


&&

LAT...LON 4070 8906 4062 8907 4061 8920 4051 8933
      4056 8939 4068 8925             

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 28, 10:21 AM CDT, 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 28, 10:21 AM CDT, 31 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1021 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Updated the forecast today to address chances of showers along
with thunderstorms chances appearing along and south of I-72
during this afternoon. A quasi-stationary front was just south of
a Pontiac to Peoria to Macomb line, while a warm front was south
of IL from central TN and southern AR. Aloft a 546 dm 500 mb low
was developing over ne Utah and sw WY. Latest radar mosaic shows
mainly light rain showers along and south of I-72 while another
smaller band of light rain showers was along and north of a
Monmouth to Galesburg to Henry line and lifting ne. More
widespread and heavier showers with some thunderstorms were
upstream over central and northern MO and sw IA.

Latest hi-resolution models like the NAM, HRRR and RAP show warm
lift lifting northward into southern IL by late afternoon/early
evening with rain showers spreading ne over rest of central IL
into early afternoon with thunderstorms possible this afternoon in
southeast IL. SPC day1 outlook continues slight risk of severe
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening along and southeast
of a Paris to Shelbyville line, while enhanced risk of severe
storms southeast of a Robinson to Flora line where 30% risk of
very large hail of 2 inch diameter or larger. Southeast IL also
has 5-15% risk of damaging wind gusts, while 2% risk of tornadoes
in southeast Lawrence county. Temps currently range from mid 40s
by Galesburg and Lacon, to the mid 60s along highway 50 from Flora
to Lawrenceville. Highs to contrast from the upper 50s by
Galesburg and Lacon, to around 70F along highway 50, with warmer
mid 70s-lower 80s south of CWA, along and south of I-64 which
gets into the warm sector later today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Initial batch of rain showers is pushing eastward across Missouri
early this morning, as a frontal boundary starts to set up over
the mid- Mississippi Valley. Most impact of this batch will be
across the northwest half of the forecast area this morning, with
a secondary area of showers tracking northeast toward the I-70
corridor early in the afternoon. This southeastern area will see
the beginnings of the frontal boundary which will plague the area
this weekend. May see a few strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening in that area, although latest runs of the
high-resolution models suggest the line of storms may form a
little closer to the Ohio River early this evening. However, this
line should start to lift northward after midnight, and have
included categorical PoP's around 80% from about the I-70 corridor
southward. Northern part of the CWA may actually remain dry for a
good part of the night until the front lifts northward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The seeds of a strong upper low are starting to take shape over
Colorado early this morning, and will strengthen over the
4-corners region tonight. Copious moisture advection will take
place off the Gulf into this frontal zone, with an extended period
of precipitable water values of 1.5-2 inches through the weekend.
The front will slowly lift northward Saturday as the low moves to
the Texas panhandle, with a formidable surface cyclone forming
Saturday night and Sunday as the low ejects northeast into the
Plains. The front will make more northward progress on Sunday as
the low lifts northeast, with a cold front sweeping eastward
Sunday evening.

Have made no changes to the flood watch at the present time,
although recent model trends suggest an expansion at least to the
Illinois River may need to be considered soon. Rainfall totals of
4 to 6 inches are possible between I-55 and I-57, with 4 inches as
far northwest as the Illinois River. The heaviest rain is likely
Saturday afternoon and night, as a 50-60 knot low level jet sets
up around 850 mb to pump in the moisture. Once the cold front
sweeps through, only scattered showers are expected through Monday
evening, due to the wraparound from the exiting low.

The front is also going to cause a significant headache with
temperatures. A very large temperature range is expected over the
CWA on Saturday, ranging from near 50 degrees around Galesburg to
the lower 80s near Lawrenceville. Potential exists for major
temperature busts if the front does not set up near the I-70
corridor as expected. More of the CWA will be in the warm sector
on Sunday, with 70s more likely as far northwest as the Illinois
River. The deep cold air advection behind the low will result in
highs only in the 50s on Monday, but temperatures should moderate
back into the 60s for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 527 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

While rain showers will begin moving into central Illinois after
12Z, ceilings remain VFR level all the way back to eastern Kansas.
As the heavier rains move into west central Illinois, MVFR
conditions are expected to develop, but the track would suggest
that this would remain northwest of the TAF sites through mid
afternoon. A more wholesale lowering of ceilings below 2,000 feet
is likely late afternoon and persisting through the rest of the
forecast period.

Southeast winds at or just above 10 knots will persist through the
afternoon, before swinging back to the northeast as a frontal
boundary sets up over southern Illinois.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

A large area of 3 to 6 inches of rain is expected this weekend
over central and southeast Illinois, with the heaviest totals
between the I-55 and I-57 corridors. Contingency river forecasts
using 3 to 4 days of QPF suggest flooding would likely develop
Sunday or Monday on the Embarras, Sangamon, and Illinois Rivers,
and a bit earlier on the Little Wabash River where Wednesday's
rainfall totals were heavier and still causing rises. Some of the
model trends have been shifting the heaviest rain axis a bit
further northwest, which could cause a bigger impact on the
Illinois River. People with interests on area rivers need to
monitor the forecasts closely over the next couple days.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday
morning for ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart
HYDROLOGY...Geelhart

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 28, 6:00 AM CDT, 4 hours 52 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
600 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-291100-
Cass-Fulton-Knox-Marshall-Mason-Morgan-Peoria-Schuyler-Scott-
Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
600 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms over the Illinois River valley region
today and tonight. Localized heavy rain possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

More showers and thunderstorms will be likely Saturday through
Sunday night as a series of weather systems move through the area.
Rainfall amounts over this 3 day period could range from 2.5 to 4
inches, with the highest amounts falling Saturday night. The
heavy rain falling on saturated soil from earlier storms will
produce rapid runoff and a potential for localized flooding, as
well as, river flooding across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight.

ILZ038-042>046-048-051>057-061-291100-
Champaign-Christian-Coles-De Witt-Douglas-Edgar-Logan-Macon-
McLean-Menard-Moultrie-Piatt-Sangamon-Shelby-Vermilion-
600 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and east central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected over central Illinois
today. Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be
possible from the strongest storms. A brief tornado will also be
possible. Localized heavy rain wil also be possible from the
strongest storms. Some localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

More showers and thunderstorms will be likely Saturday through
Sunday night as a series of weather systems move through the area.
Rainfall amounts over this 3 day period could range from 4 to more
than 5 inches, with the highest amounts falling Saturday night.
The heavy rain falling on saturated soil from earlier storms will
produce rapid runoff and a potential for localized flooding, as
well as, river flooding across the region.

There is also a slight risk of severe storms again on Saturday
afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
main threat, with a brief tornado possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening.

A conference call for emergency managers will be conducted at 11am
this morning.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-291100-
Clark-Clay-Crawford-Cumberland-Effingham-Jasper-Lawrence-Richland-
600 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected over central Illinois
today. Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible this
afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be
possible from the strongest storms. A brief tornado will also be
possible. Localized heavy rain wil also be possible from the
strongest storms. Some localized flooding is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

More showers and thunderstorms will be likely Saturday through
Sunday night as a series of weather systems move through the area.
Rainfall amounts over this 3 day period could range from 4 to more
than 5 inches, with the highest amounts falling Saturday night.
The heavy rain falling on saturated soil from earlier storms will
produce rapid runoff and a potential for localized flooding, as
well as, river flooding across the region.

There is also a slight risk of severe storms again on Saturday
afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
main threat, with a brief tornado possible.

Flooding along the Little Wabash river near Clay City is expected
to develop early this weekend and continue into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening.

A conference call for emergency managers will be conducted at 11am
this morning.

Goetsch

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 28, 9:51 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Crawford, Jasper	12 days
Apr 28, 9:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Lawrence	18 days
Apr 28, 10:03 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Vermilion	5 days
Apr 28, 10:47 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Fulton, Knox	6 days
Apr 28, 10:49 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Fulton	6 days
Apr 28, 11:00 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Piatt	11 days
Apr 28, 11:02 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Sangamon	59 hr
Apr 28, 11:04 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Menard	59 hr
Apr 28, 11:06 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Cass, Mason, Menard	11 days
Apr 28, 11:07 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Cass, Mason	14 days
Apr 28, 11:09 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Mason, Menard	6 days
Apr 28, 12:59 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Marshall, Putnam	21 days
Apr 28, 1:00 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Peoria, Tazewell, Woodford	30 days
Apr 28, 3:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Lawrence	12 min
Apr 28, 3:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Clark, Coles, Cumberland, Edgar	24 min
Apr 28, 4:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Crawford, Jasper, Lawrence, Richland	38 min
Apr 28, 4:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Edgar	23 min

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Illinois, 2017 Every river flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.